Rankings (based on "mean" rating data)

This is cool thanks OP!

I know it isn't possible (I have done analysis like this in the past) but another potential weighting factor is the number of reviews for the beers on the list. Reviews, not Hads too since the ticking culture messes with the data a lot.

If you took the top 25 or top 50 beers from each state, rolled all their review ratings together and then did something like the top 250 list (Bayesian) then you might get quite a different result.

I did it for Vermont and California and looked up the actual raw average rating for each beer:

Top 25 beers Vermont:
# beers with less than 100 reviews: 10
Average n size: 233
Average rating (weighted by n size): 4.57

Top 25 beers California:
# beers with less than 100 reviews: 4
Average n size: 573
Average rating (weighted by n size): 4.50


To do this for all the states would take for ever (I had to manually look them up) but it is interesting for this comparison. Vermont and California top 25 are extremely similar in weighted average rating, but the average number of reviews indicates that the top beers in California are more widely attainable, and more reliable for ratings since they are consistently consumed more frequently.

I have noticed that ratings tend to come down as a beer gets reviewed more often (the hype is real bro) so Vermont might be benefiting from the rarity factor

 

Alabama ranked as high as 5? No way they should be ranked ahead of North Carolina, but that being said, they have some brewers here that are killing it. Nice to not be dead last in everything but football for a change.

 

Yup, especially for beers you can mostly only really get at the brewery.

 

They don't even have 100 beers on their top 100 list and only one beer has 100+ ratings on that list. They should be listed as not enough data, but again nothing against the OP on that, they put in the effort to put it together in the first place .

 

Here's where geographical location of reviewer compared to brewery may come into play. Fresh may be more critical than rarity. The beer is different on tap at the brewery or packaged 3 days ago 5-20 miles from where I live than it is 3-4 weeks later and a thousand miles away from the brewery.

 

True. I think that would be interesting to look at too. I wish I had the raw data to look at (merge it in with distance based on states or ZIP codes or something).

I did look into freshness though, and almost none of the beers are distributed on both lists.
By state the breweries on each list are:

Vermont:
Hill Farmstead - 19
Lawson's - 3
Alchemist - 2
Fiddlehead - 1

California:
Russian River - 6
Firestone Walker - 4
Alpine - 3
Lost Abbey - 2
Bruery - 2
Stone - 2
Bottle Logic - 1
Kern River - 1
Alesmith - 1
FiftyFifty - 1
Noble Ale Works - 1
Lagunitas - 1

Nothing on the Vermont list sees any real distribution. SoS doesn't count... 2 states getting direct from the brewery deliveries once a week isn't really distro.

Russian River famously controls their distro channel to ensure freshness, and a few others don't make any IPAs of note, so the only breweries that distribute on the list with beers that could be impacted by freshness are Alesmith, Alpine, Firestone, Lagunitas and Stone. The beers they have on the top 25 are:

AleSmith Speedway Stout - Bourbon Barrel Aged - AleSmith Brewing Company
Keene Idea - Alpine Beer Company
Bad Boy - Alpine Beer Company
Great - Alpine Beer Company
Parabola - Firestone Walker Brewing Co.
§ucaba - Firestone Walker Brewing Co.
Parabajava - Firestone Walker Brewing Co.
Stickee Monkee - Firestone Walker Brewing Co.
Born Yesterday Pale Ale - Lagunitas Brewing Company
Imperial Russian Stout - Bourbon Barrel Aged - Stone Brewing Co.
Stone Enjoy By IPA - Stone Brewing Co.

Most of these beers aren't distributed or aren't IPAs. I bolded the only 2 distributed IPAs. Both beers are actively managed to maintain freshness and deliver as quickly as possible to customers, so I don't think freshness is driving the difference.

Interestingly for the 2 states I have looked at, freshness is either managed via non-distribution or very carefully managed directly by the brewery.

 

Wow, you are a true data geek!

FYI, you can put Hill Farmstead in VT on your "controlled" or managed freshness list. A few places in SE PA are regularly seeing kegs now through a local distributor but the proviso is that the kegs are stored properly and are not allowed to sit around for long periods of time before being tapped. Even though the bar(s) I know who have those kegs have agreed to the brewery and distributor conditions, it is also apparently being monitored from VT to some degree.

 

Unless you can find a way to normalize the differences between states due to size and population, comparing states to each other is problematical at best. For instance, Vermont is half the size and population of San Diego.

 

Yup, thanks! Sounds like the way Russian River manages it - if they hear about old beer, they pull you from the list of retailers allowed to sell their stuff. I imagine the mere threat of losing access to Hill Farmstead kegs would make bars behave - Simply being able to stock and advertise Hill Farmstead tapings must be really good for business.

 

I think that is true, but reinforces the point about Vermont having great (well, very highly rated at least) beer compared to other states. the fact it is so small, then the per-capita representation of Vermont beers on the top 250 is pretty impressive.

 

Vermont indeed has some stellar breweries but lets take a look, imagine comparing Vermont to just Portland, San Diego, or Santa Rosa Ca. Vermont probably wouldn't seem so much an outlier, then add again the fact that the New England Region and East Coast has a large majority of active BA members and it is little wonder the numbers line up like they do.

 

Very interesting, but not that surprising. Washington may be a "beer mecca" but there is little hype around here. That's both good and bad, as greater hype means the people with bad behavior (truck chasing, line cutting, mules) start to come out of the woodwork, while less hype generates less national interest and great beer gems often pass by unnoticed by the greater population.

 

But that is basically my point - Vermont has a population of 600,000, so about 0.2% of the US population, and doesn't have a single town or city with a population over 100,000. Even so, they have 4 breweries represented in the top 250 beers list, with 27 beers ranking.

A state with 0.2% of the nations population has over 10% of the top 250 beers in the country.

Massachusetts is close with Trillium and Tree house (or Tradillium and Trade House if you prefer ), but their population is 10 times that of Vermont.

I know that isn't the same analysis that the OP did, but purely from the perspective of 'world class beers per capita' Vermont is kicking some major arse if you go by that rankings and ratings.

 

Wyoming is #2 and California is #20
I am going to suggest that is evidence that the methodology may be slightly askew.

 

What was the ratings sample size for the beers being used in this analysis? You ever notice that some beers with less than 50 ratings have these very high numbers above 4.5 which are skewed because locals are the only people who have had a particular beer and therefore highly biased about their local brewery. You can't compare that to a beer with a thousand ratings and expect accurate results. Do you really think that there are more beers in Wyoming that are better than the beer in California? Of course not. It's just that Wyoming has smaller and fewer breweries with less distribution. Nobody from out of state ever drinks their beer.

 

I think the rankings have significant regional bias. Would like to see a membership heat map.

Everyone thinks their local beer is the best. Those regions with the highest membership density will determine the rankings.

 

haha, was surprised to see WI so low, but you do bring up a good point about all the shitty beer in this state bringing us down. Minhas alone is probably enough to bring ANY state down to the bottom 45 lol. Then when you factor in stuff like Horny Goat, City Brewing, Rhinelander Brewing Co., Leine's, Hamm's, Miller...well, we didn't stand a chance.