2016 Surly Darkness

Sure wasn't intending to be cynical. If any business has a wildly popular product and they can reasonably easily increase production to a level somewhere short of demand, where you maximize profit by balancing volume and price - then that would be the best business model if your goal is to make profit. As you and others mention, there are other variables - but creating a cult following for an excellent product by limiting production doesn't generally create optimal profit. Not saying profit must be their primary motivation - maybe they just love what they do, and can leverage the publicity. I do agree that keeping it seasonal is wise, particularly since they have a wide variety of good beers to cover the rest of the year. Darkness would still have a cult following if they doubled production, and they would pull in more fans by the greater availability. They might be silently cranking up production to handle the increased distribution area.

 

From my memory, "variants of Darkness are not in the business plan." That's what i remember. I just think it's going to be Darkness and BA darkness. Which is fine with me.

 

I'm not sure you have a good understanding of beer geeks. It's only cult worthy if it's hard to get. If it sits on the shelves for weeks at a time it's street cred will drop faster than fannie and Freddie's stock.

 

I think over time, this would definitely become reality. I mean, look at something like AleSmith Speedway Stout. That's a really solid imperial stout available all year around and it just sits on shelves. If they released that once a year with the variants, people would be lining up for it.

 

This would be an interesting study... I don't disagree with you at all, but I actually wonder which route actually would sell more? Having beers available year round and on many store shelves seems like you grab a lot more casual beer drinkers. Not sure if that makes up for the hype from beer nerds like ourselves, but it's interesting to think about.

 

I think it would lead to a lot more of the beer actually being drank. Us beer nerds just buy into the hype and buy as much as we can find/afford and then stare at it for years. Beer for lookin' at, not drinking.

 

Definitely intriguing to think about! From just a pure units sold standpoint, one would almost have to assume the year round approach would sell more in the long term. But with that being said, we also have to look at it from Surly's point of view. As it stands, they know they can brew batches that produce roughly X number of bottles every year and they are going to sell out. They are never going to have a surplus of bottles sitting on the warehouse floor, never a batch of Darkness taking up room in the tanks while bottles sit on the shelf in stores.

There's no real mystery to it for them, no guessing games. They brew it, release it in October, and they don't have to deal with it again until the following year. If they moved to brewing and selling it in a year round capacity, I think that invites a few more logistical headaches for a brewery with a year-round lineup that already keeps them brewing steady around the clock as they keep expanding into new states.

 

I agree, brew it once and get it out and be done with it. Plus you have to image the stores getting it and taking up yet another spot on the shelf. Much like Pentagram, it takes up space...
Even if they brewed it 2 times a year, I'd buy half as much both releases and drink it the same amount... very little. Sooner or later I'll drink it, but staring at it is really fun too.

 

There is definitely the capacity factor for Surly in play too. They've recently talked about how they are skipping Wet this year so they can use that tank space to meet demand for Hell and Furious. When you take into account all the costs of production (ingredients, brew time, fermentation time/cost of tying up a tank, cost of cans vs. bottles, cost to package, etc.) and look at what the product sells for, I'd imagine that they are making more money on Furious over Darkness.

If Furious takes 12 days in the tanks vs. Darkness taking 60 (just a guess here), that means you can crank out 5 batches of Furious in the time it takes to make 1 batch of Darkness.
Say that Furious sells for $9/4pack and Darkness sells at $20/750mL bottle (MSRP) and you have a revenue per oz of $0.14 vs. $.787, which means that Darkness brings in 5.57 times as much revenue per oz. (I know that Surly isn't getting 100% of the retail sale price, but I imagine that they get the same % when selling to the distributor, so the ratio holds)

Maybe I just proved myself wrong here... even given the longer aging time, the higher price makes up for it.
If my assumption that Darkness is in the tanks for 2 months was undershooting the actual time, then Furious wins out.

What a fun way to not work for a half hour!

 

Very nice. I'm sure they look at that a little bit, but I doubt they base all their decisions on the awesome math you provide. Also, factor in labor in not brewing as the tanks are full and the time it takes to sell 1 batch of darkness and 5 batches of Furious.

I imagine a place like Sisyphus would look at exactly the math you provided. I assume they buy barrels for storage as much as they do for aging!

 

OMG I am glad I am not the only beer nerd that loves to just stare at my bottles of Darkness! I have to look at them like three times a week. This is coming after only the first time I have been to Darkness day last year. I had wanted to go for years and finally went last year and loved it cant wait to add six more bottles this year I hope!

 

Are tickets passed out at the same time every year. If you are not 'camping' out the night before, can you arrive anytime before that and get in line?

 

If memory serves - & after a Darkness Eve it's not terribly reliable - the line has formed & tickets have been handed out between 8-9 AM the past few years. If they still have tickets, you can theoretically show up anytime & get tickets. For the first time last year I did not go canvas the end of the line, so no idea what time tickets ran out in 2015.

 

You're failing to take in to account the cost of inputs. Your revenue side only math works well if the cost to produce both products is identical. After you factor in the additional cost of raw materials and packaging (screen printed bottles are spendy) you're going to end up in a place where, unless you're turning that stout incredibly quickly, it will likely never make you as much money as that quick turning IPA. Any other brewery doing this type of calculation while ignoring the variance in cost to produce is going to be in rough shape.

 

True, I did ignore that in my answer bit I did think through it some. While he cost of inputs (malt, hops, screen printed bottles, etc) for a batch of darkness is certainly greater than for a batch of Furious, using my own estimate of 5 batches of Furious to 1 batch of darkness in terms of production time, I would doubt that the inputs of darkness are 5 times greater than that of Furious.

 

Yes, if they increase production too much, then some could sit. There is a magic quantity somewhere in-between where it won't sit on shelves, it won't quash the hype, profit is maximized, and many more of us can get some. Moot point, they're gonna do what they feel they gotta do.

 

The biggest but potbelly not the only reason for the one time release is the publicity and to keep it from collecting dust.

I wish they would brew a different stout in bigger quantities, or a nice barleywine.

 

I see they announced brewery expansion. You're welcome.

 

Thanks. Those 4 weeks you guys have been buying Furious in SD really did the trick