Trouble brewing as Boston Beer facing dry spell with key brands

Is this news? Has this not been going on with Boston Beer for some time?

I think this quote gets to the heart of it, although it remains slightly off: "The brand is not viewed as authentic craft anymore given its size."-Vivien Azer, Cowen analyst

The issue, I believe, has more to do with familiarity with the brand, and thus a loss of excitement in it. New beers make some impact, but the regular line-up is old hat. And I think this is probably becoming true for Sierra Nevada, Bell's, Dogfish Head, Magic Hat, Stone, and all of the others that had a large market early on (New Glarus, for example, has been around since '93 but is at least partially untouched because they've maintained a small market).

Maybe Jim Koch should have sold out to A-B earlier? And is Yuengling the next to die? The spin-offs regarding this question could go on for days, but I think what it all comes down to is that today's consumer is only interested in the newest thing, regardless of quality, or brand - and, ultimately, at least partially because they don't understand what they're drinking completely, or care more for the image of it than they do the actual item.

 

Yeah. The effects of earlier decline showed up in their annual report about a year ago and since then the stock has shown steady decline from a high of over $300 in January of 2015 down to per share down to around $150-160 per share recently as their attempts to improve on sales declines have not had much impact..

 

I think the twisted tea does well for them.

 

Yes, that's their one bright spot.

 

Angry Orchard (have heard like 90% of the sales are the 'blue' one despite jamming a million 'flavors' in every retailers). I guess they're beating Woodchuck/Magners/Crispin but if so, that's a small market to be slicing up

Coney Island hard sodas may still be selling but I don't see them many places prominently anymore. NYF and BD seem to be getting most of the action

Coney Island 'actual' beers I see OOD at any store that didn't already trash them.

They are trying to innovate but I'm not sure they have a pulse on what people are looking for. I was trying to find that Rebel Raw Variety 12, finally did, and they all tasted the same, and 'old', even though they were fresh. I know BA posters aren't their target but they aren't really putting out anything particularly interesting that I am seeing.

 

I see it as a bit of an oxymoron to be a titan of craft beer. I think there is a ceiling for craft breweries and some have blown through it and are starting to pay the price. You get that much skin in the game trying to be in every state and compete nationally and then all of a sudden your customers are drinking locally made gose's and your 4 month old IPA's aren't selling. I think you need to be able to stay nimble and know your limits.

 

FWIW I think this is just a reflection of what I commented on previously (in the Stone thread):

"The beer market for breweries like Stone, Sierra Nevada, Boston Beer (Sam Adams), etc. is extremely competitive right now. The handwriting has been on the wall for the past few years and the rapid amount of consolidation and business partnership changes are clear indications of this competitive landscape."

Cheers!

 

When I first got into craft beer I loved Sam Adams. Now I view them as a stepping stone between macros and great craft beer. I might only buy a couple packs per year now, I always try their Pumpkin and Oktoberfest. They make good easy to drink beers that are always available if you can't find anything else.

 

We could save a lot of time by copying ~80% of the discussion about Stone's layoffs to this thread.

 

Bingo. I smell a trend but it started a ways back with Boston Beer Co.

 

Boston Beer Company seems to be acting like the BIG breweries (e.g., AB) via: “redesigned packaging for its signature brand.”

Maybe they will relabel Sam Adams Boston Lager next summer akin to Budweiser being labeled as America!?!

Cheers!

 

Ahh, so that's where Victory and Troeg's got the idea for redesigning the packaging for their signature brands and variety case packaging.

 

I think the key to success is staying new and vibrant, listening to the consumer and providing the market with what it demands. If small guys are taking business because of fresh cheap beer that is good, then compete with them, keep your beer fresh, lower cost, etc. Big companies just need to stay tuned in. If you want to leave 4-6 mos old beer on shelves and not be ground breaking then I guess the crowds will go with who is hot. That is sort of how it works. I still feel core beers are never going away though, you can get all the new guys you want and most people will still buy the core lineup of the good guys, I know I do. The trick with beer is keeping it fresh and giving the consumer what they desire in taste and cost, you do that I don't see you going anywhere soon.

 

Everytime I find something I like, they don't make it anymore...

 

Maybe Boston Beer should scale it back a bit and eliminate the 30 crappy beers in their 35 beer profile. Just a random guess on their portfolio. No one can make so much great, hell mediocre would be a lofty goal. A few hit that, but I can't think of one that I would call truly outstanding. Just my opinion.

 

I suspect they have been hit particularly hard by GI grabbing taps with low priced flagship kegs.

And by declining cider sales.

This is quite different from Stone, whose sales are still growing, and which has different consumers.

 

Canning Utopias would solve all of their problems.

 

Tom, I just gotta ask: what do you think about the Troegs repackaging effort?

Cheers!

 

How so?