So I read this article a few months ago and my general takeaway was that some of the old guard in the craft beer world were falling behind and struggling to keep up. Some of this can be blamed on lack of innovation/creativity (Bridgeport) , others with poor execution (Rogue) , and others from natural competition (Deschutes, Hopworks, etc.) http://www.wweek.com/bars/beer/2017/02/14/52773/ But yesterday I was at two beer spots that I frequent somewhat regularly and all of a sudden the near endless options of local or somewhat local (Wa, Ca) beers felt overwhelming. As someone who stays pretty dialed in to whats out there, I found myself staring at a cooler filled with 50 beers I have never heard of. Another cooler filled 5ft wide by 8 ft tall with NOTHING but BA Stouts. Probably 30 new IPAs, 20 of which are "New England" style. Once "rare" and coveted beers now sit on the shelves for weeks or even months (Peche n Brett, BBomb, KDS, Abyss, etc.) Now Im not complaining in the slightest. other regions would die for this type of selection. But I cant help but wonder how this will all play out 10-15 years from now. If I was a tightly run brewery that had killer profits right now and very little overhead, I would be very weary about expansion in this market. The Pacific NW has a great beer culture and we drink a sh*t TON of it, and I know the margins on what beer costs to make vs. what it can be sold for are solid, but at some point I feel we are going to see some sort of contraction..... or maybe not?
I kinda feel like there's been an East Coast invasion lately. I tend to stick with the locals, mainly because I can only drink so much - and I'm quite happy with what we have up here in our little corner on the country.
We ain't there yet. We may lose specific breweries, but two or three others will pop up, and an existing brewery will buy their equipment for an expansion. I'm not sure about the need for a given brewery to be coast-to-coast and line-to-line, but having a regional, multi-state presence should be sustainable. That's one disadvantage our breweries have, the Pacific Ocean. A 500 mile radius from KC or Minneapolis is different than a 500 mile radius from Bend or Chico.
We've already seen contraction in Seattle. Odin bought Hilliards and Big Al shut down. I'm sure those aren't the last.
Well, Heinenitas has moved into the Hilliards spot, and Alejandro is brewing at Odin, so that's sort-of an even sum game.
Totally agree on the overwhelming piece and we'll see some serious adjustments from this (we've been seeing accounts come and go locally a lot). I really think we'll continue to see more seasonal brewing and less mainstays. Places like Firestone Walker seem to be understanding this. The "rare" beers lasting a few weeks / months on the shelf is a really good thing. They still sell out, it just takes a bit longer and that's ok and everyone who wants one, actually gets one for a change. I think there's just less hording because there's more choice. Instead of hogging all the Peche n Brett, BBomb, KDS, Abyss, people buy one of each.
I think it's great. As others have said, some breweries will come and go... just natural with the pure amount of breweries out there. The decent ones will realize they need to keep it fresh rather than the old days of just putting out the same 5 beers time after time. There's enough beer lovers in our neighborhoods that will keep their local afloat, as long as they are decent enough.
