Your Biggest Wrong Or Right Beer Predictions From Past

Between you and me, Dave, I don't see Heady Topper as being in that style.

My biggest wrong prediction would be with how recent revival beers would be welcomed by today's market. And I gotta add, you people have really disappointed me because of it .

 

@cavedave you & i went back & forth a bit on your ABI/GI predictions & news you heard that BCBS would be cranked up to year round product. you were more right than wrong. BCBS did go nationwide in much larger quantities. in certain locations it is on shelves year round - pretty sure at least a tiny bit of that is for unintended / negative reasons too though.

things i predicted that appear to be correct.

• GI would be forced out of its Heaven Hill barrel supply.
• GI would suffer losses via misunderstanding or ignoring barrel supply trends
• GI wouldn't be able to corner the market on high end barrels because. . .
  
• barrel quality & availability was likely to plummet after 2012
  
• the whiskey brand likely associated w/ & supporting BCBS was disappearing
• barrel pedigree mattered a lot more than beer nerds understood. . .
  
• when GI allegedly only discarded one of the 50 PVW23 barrels used to age "Rare" - we probably weren't going to see results like that going forward - whereas a brewer could rely on a 98% barrel success rate.

things i was wrong about.

i don't think i stated when but i expected BCBS to likely experience issues starting 2014.

i can definitely say i was wrong about how long IPA obsessiveness would last & expand.

 

Wrong prediction for me: Black IPA/Cascadian Dark Ale craze sweeps the nation. (its a shame, because they're delicious, people)

 

About 20 years ago I told a bunch of people that I thought this micro brewed beer would eventually take off. Fast forward to today about half of them drink only craft beer and the other half still drink Coors Light.

So I was half right and half wrong.

 

After having Stone’s Arrogant Bastard I thought there’s no way THAT brewery will stay in business

 

The HFs I can see, but there was no joking about Heady. The malt profile, finish and bitterness don't really jive with the sub style, of which those seem to be defining features.

 

Right: After having Lagunitas Equinox (and loving the mouth feel) a few years ago, I thought oats would be included in a lot of IPA malt bills.
Beer enthusiasts having the same ethos as punk rock fans did in the 90's. Wearing t-shirts of their favorites, getting mad when breweries sell out, being loyal to local bands/breweries, etc

Wrong: 16oz cans were a rip off and people wouldn't pay more per ounce and breweries would go back to 12oz servings. As many other do, I now prefer 16oz cans.

Wish: Prices come down on 4 packs of NE IPA's

 

I predicted that the regional players would benefit so much from their superior QC methods, guarantees of freshness, reputation for consistency, and advantage on price point that many smaller, hyper-local places would have started closing by now. Never would I have expected (and this still astounds me, as it did while I was recently walking the halls of Sierra Nevada's Mills River facility seeing all of the above points in action) that tiny local places would hold such a huge advantage with just their dedication to and their story of being a true part of a particular place. To think that my operation holds such an advantage -- which, granted, we genuinely set out to be regarding the value of hyper-locality and brand loyalty, and believe in deeply -- still boggles my mind.

 

I guess I was right about the 16oz cans, although it probably was more wishful thinking than prediction.

 

There’s a few bona fide oracles in this thread

Something I was wrong about - when I first saw a post on Instagram of a beer with absolutely no head, filled to the brim, I said “that’ll never take off”

Agreed with you about NY stouts @cavedave - posted same thing in the OH thread yesterday evening

 

Great thread @cavedave. My biggest prediction is something that I was wrong about, and that is that I wouldn't be able to buy quality beer made in Rockland County. Thankfully I was very wrong as we now have two top-notch breweries.
Cheers!

 

I agree with you about where HT sits in terms of sub-style. But having it for the first time when my palate was more accustomed to palate-wrecker-esque IPAs it did seem soft, fruity, and non-bitter in comparison.

Others have since taken that ball and ran with it of course. When push comes to shove I still think HT is at just about the perfect spot on the spectrum of west coast to NE.

 

In the past when craft was just popping I said that no one in their right mind would pay $12-20 bucks for a six pack or 4 pack, that it would implode and we would be back to Bud, Miller, and Coors. Wow was I really wrong there and not only wrong but saw prices exceed those amounts and people still paying.

I would love to hear peoples prediction on the upcoming year or years. What do you guys see going away or becoming the norm, etc?

 

I used the term of "spectrum" in the below that I have posted numerous times in BA threads:

In my opinion the beers of The Alchemist (e.g., Heady Topper) are not so called 'NE' style IPAs. I have had Heady Topper on multiple occasions and those beer were neither turbid/murky/opaque or had a smooth/velvety mouthfeel. In past BA threads I discussed:

“In my eyes if West Coast style is one side of the rainbow and Trillium/Tree House is the other side, Alchemist/Lawson's/Hill are the best of both worlds.”

This pretty much mirrors my thoughts on the ‘spectrum’ of American style IPAs. I enjoy drinking West Coast style IPAs (e.g., FW Union Jack) and I enjoy drinking the so called “NE” style IPAs but for me the ‘sweet spot’ are the hoppy beers of Hill Farmstead (and Alchemist).

If you want to ‘translate’ this to an appearance thing:

· West Coast style IPA are relatively clear (those beer are typically either filtered or passed through a centrifuge)

· The so called ‘NE’ style IPAs are murky/turbid/opaque

· The Hill Farmstead and The Alchemist beers are in between those two

Cheers!

 

Good point. On the related bar keg-pricing side, I remember my mind being blown when a bar charged $1/oz for something rare. Maybe CBS. That was only like 5 years ago. Can’t believe how quickly things have jumped to $2/oz for some of the rarer stuff at certain places in NYC without people really batting an eye

 

I have an on-going prediction that as craft beer grows in particular cities that food culture and downtown (or neighborhood) revitalization will occur. One place in particular that I think this is happening is Topeka, KS. My in-laws live there and for the longest time they had one brewpub. Rare beers sat on shelves. Food culture didn't exist. We almost never go out to nice dinner while we're there. In the past five years or so, a couple craft beer focused bars opened. They also had 2 breweries open in the past 2 years. Over the holidays my father-in-law told me about all the changes coming to downtown Topeka. A music venue, a boutique hotel, a small bowling alley, restaurants and a craft beer bar. It's not a very bold prediction, but when I tell him I think craft beer is responsible for the downtown revitalization he has his doubts.

 

Did that ever really take off? I did this once just for the hell of it. It absolutely destroyed the character of the beer (King Sue, for the record). It suppresses the aroma, which is a huge component of flavor.

Prediction I was right about: I predicted that I'd never see Michigan Maple Jesus. Stone cold, lock of the year.

 

When I had a Sam Adams in 1985 or so and said" This is awesome" and put my bud days behind me. Same can be said for Harpoon IPA, both still hold up to this day.