Which New England Breweries Will Still Exist in 10 Years?

Jack's Abby isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The product, price-point, and diversity of line-up is super competitive, relative to the field.

 

all the really popular ones

 

Great thread. 10 is way to far out. I would hold it to 5.

Sam Adams is not going anywhere. That I know for sure.

 

The ones with the strongest brand identity as well as the best beer. There are a lot of hype breweries out there but if you step back and look at the best ones, the top tier, their brand itself is potentially even stronger than their beer. Logo design, how they speak about their product, authentic stories behind the names of their products and their brand, etc. Authenticity and a unique identity go a long way when it comes to staying power and being a successful business.

Chances are your favorite brewery that just jumps on the hype train and panders to the crowd of beer bros isn’t going to be around as long as a lot of others regardless of the product they put out.

 

I like the 5 year arc rather than 10 years.
I think the keys to longevity in this very heated market are moving slow and steady.
I think Trillium is an example of that as they grow. LH, maybe not so much.

Notch, to me, is the other side of the coin, keeping growth small and local.....smart.

 

Night Shift is positioning itself for the long-term - creating their own distribution company and building out a more diverse portfolio (including NS-branded beer, like Night Light, beer from other breweries, wine, spirits, and mixers) should help them pivot more seamlessly when market demand changes over time.

I agree with some of the points raised above - breweries like Mystic, Idles Hands, Exhibit A, etc. that grow organically and are focused on their local communities (however that's defined - whether a municipality, metro region, or state) are going to be in a better position over the long-term.

 

Harpoon - if they can maintain their taphandles @ bars given the present competition.

 

Exactly, the interesting thing that people don't think about(and if you are really new to craft beer since around 10/11) you wouldn't even know about is the Tap wars and shelf space games. That was everything before the hyper local IPA took hold and people demanded ultra fresh beer straight from the gut. In our area you really can pin that back to when Heady Topper took hold and people began to line up for cans(yes you can argue people were lining up for Kate T G and others but for cans heady was the big one)

But they really made the statement with drink it fresh on the can and pushing the drink it now thing! However people forget that Sam Adams was advocating that waaaay back with the best by dates and ads that were aired nationally telling folks to look out for old beer. But not its more about the hops and how quickly they fall off. Sam did well on premise due to hiring a strong sales team. Jim and Martin always swore by it and the proof was in the wort. They were able to educate on premise and off premise accounts by regular visits, product sampling, merch, displays and being out there. It worked for years and years. Social media was also somewhat in its infancy and advertising mainly relied on tv and radio. As the world began to expand in beer and production techniques were more readily available as well as the general share of information of the internet your smaller breweries really began to take off. Mix in some online marketing and advertising and wallah. The birth of the hyper local nano-brewery was sort of reborn. I challenge anyone to tell me of a brewery that would advertise on TV now that they would actually take seriously?

The tap room culture itself also working its way out here from the West Coast and other areas also sort of gave refuge to the few who did not want to go to a normal bar and deal with everything that it brings. College kid, frats, drunks, fights, and pretty much douchery(none of the above bothered me but it does to many) It gave a place where people could gather, get away from TV's and sports for a few minutes and enjoy the beer. Then breweries started to realize that they could sell the cans direct and bam, the lines began. Online forums, Instagram, twitter just fuel the hype fire and any brewery would be foolish not getting on board. But the other thing they realized is they can win those same people from the bars that they once kind of rebelled against and wanted out. So in reality, the tap room culture really is just becoming a bar again for the college kids, ipa bro's and bras and everything people complained on here about regarding the Trillium beer garden(as a lose example) There is enough saturation and new interest still that folks will wait in the lines. But I've said before that myself and others are beginning to just want to put our time elsewhere besides lines. Given the varieties out there. So every time I skip a line a sale is lost. My money goes to the easiest spot that provides a great product(Trillium being a good example of balancing this) I just don't see the line freak mentality lasting another 5+ years. This will be detrimental to the smaller breweries who think that's literally what it's all about. I see it here in Portsmouth when people line up for beers at a brewery who doesn't even need a line. There might be literally 20 people waiting early for nothing. Which says that it's also a thing and not just a need. As those lines shorten and brewery owners realize unless they push to the markets and use some kind of distribution there just is not a huge amount of money to be made. I would assume most are financially responsible and will most likely seek alternative work. The breweries still putting some time on the road in accounts and working with distribution will make the money and remain, whatever the size might be.

My whole point is to ME, and all of this was just my opinion, there is going to be another shift given that the generations coming forward have even shorter attention spans then I do at almost 37. Bars will still be around and taps will still be fought over. If I owned a brewery I would certainly still put some thought in my business plan into how I can win the taps. And not just in the Lulus, Abbeys and Hobo's.

I hope to god I can be wrong but the writing is on the wall to an extent. Lets not forget the big guys trying to put the squeeze on pricing the raw materials and Steele.

The people out there that push for taps and shelf space still deserve a lot of credit. That shit is not easy.

 

I don’t see any reason why most of them can’t stick around. From what I can tell, the financial troubles are mostly hitting medium to largish breweries who took on a bunch of debt to expand at the same time the market was moving towards local. There are a million small local breweries these days putting out consistently good product that I think will remain popular. As long as they don’t try to get bigger than demand can support, they’ll be fine continuing to exist as popular, albeit small, local businesses.

 

I didn't jump on board in the last 5 years, but I did kinda dive into the NEIPA craze ~3 years ago, and now I'm sick of it and just want miller high life and guiness.

 

river roost

 

Well, Guinness is the greatest beer in the world, of all time. They should rebrand it as G-Boat for the hype

 

Pretty bullish on the places making the best beer currently, though some will be bought in the next 10 years. Most bullish on the places that have shown to be quick to adapt in the fat years we've seen recently as it bodes well for when things get tougher.

I think Trillium is the gold standard in regards to this.

 

I can see the waiting in lines for NEIPAs nonsense going away, but craft beer sales dropping altogether? Not so sure. Do you see people switching back to BMC? Is wine gonna become the hot new thing? Is the younger demographic not into drinking? Cause people don't just stop drinking and I highly doubt many of today's juicebros didn't drink before being introduced to craft.

 

It's already happening - liquor and wine are already stealing share from younger drinkers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/taranu...the-threat-is-scarier-than-ever/#27e36710768c

 

My thinking is that is the next squeeze, the transition from people willingly lining up at breweries to demanding fresh cans be stocked at their local packy. Those breweries that rely on and make decisions based on keeping all markup in-house will have a difficult time seeing those profits go down substantially. While a place like Tree House in 5 years will continue to be a destination due to the sheer facility and taproom aspect (they will probably transition to draft available at all open hours as their traffic lessens like the rest of the craft breweries), lesser taproom experiences which only offer cans to go will be bypassed as more and more of the "nouveau" options become available in stores.

Although I laugh at the $20+ 4-packs of Singlecut DDH beers available on shelves right now, they really are in before the rest of their peers transition. While it sticks out like a sore thumb now, their price points will become more in line with the top end options. That said, Jack's Abby's model will scream out even more as their affordable 6 & 12 packs sit well below the price where most of the newly distributed options will fall.

 

Something's gotta give w/r/t drinking, though, right? Look at the options younger drinkers have:

Spiked seltzers, twisted teas, ciders, all the flavored vodkas, canned cocktails, regular cocktails, and so on.

Then, add the legalization of marijuana, and the variety of ways it can be used: candies, gummies, brownies, cookies; Getting weed won't be an issue; It's essentially odorless now too.

I'm not saying younger people won't eventually join the craft crowd. Some will. But craft beer was a way into more flavorful and mindful drinking. This is not an issue for the upcoming demographic of drinkers. Plus they're paying less than $20 for 4 16 oz cans.