Where Is Craft Beer Headed Now?

Awesome topic and great connections with other cultural connections and movements.

While I haven't been drinking craft as much as a lot of people on here, I'm sure (~10 years), I started really getting into craft right as the hazy IPA made its way to my neck of the woods in Illinois.

2017 was my biggest year in the hobby, drinking upwards of 500 new beers and making beer trips to Colorado and the Northeast in the calendar year. Since then, and since I spent that year going to releases, trading a lot, and immersing myself in the hobby, I've decided to enjoy what I have a bit more.

I have talked with friends that like the hobby, as well as reading through the boards here, and some of the bigger trends (adjunct-heavy stouts and milkshake IPAs specifically) have some people steering right into them and others dipping their toes in, but appreciating a bit more simplicity. I like that the trends still exist, as more and more styles of beers are expanding in tastes. For me, personally, I'll dip my toes in at times, while also going back to the styles that got me into craft, specifically crisp, hoppy west coast IPAs and straight ahead stouts.

Cheers, all! Happy New Year!

 

Thanks for the thought provoking post and for bringing in some comparisons I never would have thought of (mountain biking in particular).

I'll have to think on it a bit to see if I have anything useful to add, but having been a little bit ahead of the curve on a couple of music fronts, that's the area/trajectory that seems the most similar to craft beer to me.

 

I think this is really well done. I don't like the term "craft beer" (it's all just beer, IMHO), but I understand its use as a descriptive - if you go to a place that is mostly "big beer" and ask what craft beers they offer, your server knows what you're looking for, so "craft beer" it is.

I think "craft beer" will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate (which is natural - bigger numbers = lower growth rates), but I think beer nerds will see a few things:

- "Fresh" and "Local" will continue to fuel most of the growth (i.e. taprooms), while the "super regionals" (Stone, New Belgium, Sam Adams) will shrink a bit (or a lot in the case of Sam). Sierra Nevada will be the one "super regional" that will show solid growth. This is the "Wealthy Dilettantes" codicil.

- "Special Releases" will be made more often by the "fresh and local" breweries and we'll see the shelf space for "craft beer" at retailers actually shrink a bit to reduce the "shelf turds" that sit on the retailers' shelves. This is the "first guard beer nerd" codicil.

- IPA's will continue to proliferate (hazy and not hazy), but the lower alcohol lagers/sessions/sours will fuel more growth as breweries try to expand their base beyond the "first guard" beer nerds and the "Wealthy dilettantes" to include non-beer nerds. This is the "Mrs O will continue to accompany ovaltine to breweries and make ovaltine a very happy beer nerd" codicil.

I'm codiciled out, so I'll offer a more personal observation that ties the three points above together. I used to literally get giddy with anticipation before I'd go to the beer store, because I just KNEW that I was going to find a few (as in 3 or 4 or 5) new things that would get my inner beer nerd all revved up. That rarely happens now. Selections that are dated and skewed (one guess the direction that are skewed) that have a feeling of sameness to them don't quicken my pulse.

What revs me up is a trip to a brewery, either by myself to purchase something carryout (I do that a LOT), or to take Mrs O and have a couple of beers together (I am her official beer selector, a title I have worked diligently to earn), then buy some more to take home. I almost ALWAYS find stuff that gets my inner beer nerd revved up because I do my due diligence beforehand (God Bless the internets), something that's difficult to do with retail, outside of a place like Total Wine, which isn't available to me here in Northern Indiana. NOTE TO RETAILERS: a viable, reliable digital presence would help you grow your business. Make this happen, please, and TIA.

THAT experience (visiting a local brewery) excites me, because the beers are almost always very good or better, plus I get to hang out with Mrs O (these trips always include dinner), which is the cherry on top of my beer nerd sundae.

Thanks again for an excellent post.

 

'Craft beer' is no longer a seperate movement, it is part of mainstream beer and culture in the US. It has installed the notion of some semblance of choice in flavor firmly in mainstream american beer/bar life. How many of you know a store or bar where your only choice is actually AAL?

With that it will fracture into the various subcultures that populate general US drinking/eating/inebriating culture. You will have people who are into it for the IG likes, people who are into the exclusive/expensive status symbol, people who use it as a prop for travel, people who fold it into the locavore thing, people who insist on the most traditional processes/ingredients, people who obsess over innovative process/ingredients, people who only do organic/biodynamic and on and on and on.

We won (I mean you old guys did a lot and I appreciate the lead but those of us in our late 20s and 30s have picked up the baton alright I like to think), beer is more than just adjunct lager now (while still being adjunct lager too!). However when a movement wins, the movement part is over. There are no new craft pioneers (even the folks who pioneered NEIPA and whatever other novel brew presentations we will encounter), it is an established cultural stream we can all swim in. And theres room for everyone. The richies can have 100$ stouts, the IG *****s can haze to their hearts content, the purists can drink cave lagered flaggons in the hop drying barn, the techies can get a cryohopped nitro-stout slushie, and I can get a SNPA for 3$ at a dive bar and talk about college football with an old rancher drinking bud and its all good.

We won. happy new year

 

I love beer. I despise where craft beer culture is going. Locally a new brewery opened up called wild blue yonder. It is the brainchild of an asshat who jumped on board the small plate gourmet food movement of the late 90s and drove that unchanging dated crapfactory into the ground some 20 years later. This place attracts all the wanna be cool people with cash coming out of their ears (cool bluetooth earbuds bruh) or mouth (nice lip injections) or ass ( is that buttplug bluetooth) who eat frites, not french fries, sliders, not burgers, and truffles, not mushrooms. Its shiny. Its bright. It's meant to rein in all those looky lues from society who are never part of something cool but rather are there to co opt the movement as it were and dumb it down to the lowest common denominator. These same morons buy maclarens but have never heard of Nuremberg. I'm afraid this trend is going to snowball, and while I'll always enjoy beer I am afraid I won't enjoy beer culture much longer.

 

Thanks to @cavedave for this thoughtful question. It's something to ponder, and in doing so it opens up many other rabbit holes to crawl down. There are thousands of answers to be found, and all of them correct.

To distill my beliefs into a greater overall...

People like to use things as emblems of who they are, displayed as badges for others to see who they are, and craft brew is a great example of that.

However, at some point craft brew has to become main stream just like everything else (a la @stevepat). Example given, you can buy sushi in Lebanon, Kansas, the geographic center of the United States and theoretically the furthest point from any ocean.

Starbucks is probably a clearer example. People use Starbucks to identify in Kansas, and also in NYC, although people in NY are far more likely to focus on a local shop or roaster. Therefore I agree with @ovaltine that local will continue to be a thing, and national will slow.

At the same time, in this day we've seen that people are like locusts, always moving on to the next thing, so where does that leave us? It will swirl for a while with this thing being hot and then the next, and perhaps that will go on forever, but I think like any other trend it will eventually settle down. Beer will become like wine is now: those that care, those that don't, those that are in the middle, and those that feel cheap boxed wine is more than good enough - and to a certain extent, it's kind of like that right now. There will always be different sectors though, places for different people to fit in, kind of like "splintered sunlight".

In the end it's just a big circle. Read back through what @cavedave has written. It's all true, and it will all be true again. It's just a matter of when, and how strong the movements are. It'll depend on where the new generations get on and when they decide to get off.

 

Nürburgring?

 

I'm afraid I have no idea what you speak of....

 

Dave (@cavedave) thanks for starting this intriguing thread!

When does the term "movement" lose it's meaning/luster? My prediction is that 'craft beer' will remain a minority portion of the overall beer market but it seems to me that the aspect of "movement" is diminishing. I am uncertain when the term "mainstream" becomes applicable but it seems to me that 'craft beer' is currently exiting the "movement" phase and perhaps entering the "mainstream" phase? I personally see 'craft beer' being readily available from a variety of retailers from supermarkets, convenience stores to drinking at the source (i.e., brewery tap rooms) with plenty of choices being available.

To my mind the area of Portland, OR is the poster child of where I think 'craft beer' will be in much of America in another decade or two; a commonly available and sought after beverage. To my mind this is a good thing. While I am an appreciator of 'craft beer' (e.g., a long term member of the BA community) it seems to me that 'craft beer' is simply beer - a beverage to be consumed and enjoyed. Perhaps someday in the not too distant future (i.e., in my lifetime) all beer will be referred to as just being "beer" and the terminology of 'craft beer' will no longer be popular?

Cheers!

 

It’s hard to say where craft beer is going, as it could be in any and all directions at this point. High abv, low abv sessions, traditional styles, creative and absurd styles, the great thing about beer is there is room for it all. There are plenty of hazy IPAs, adjunct pastry stouts, fruity sours, etc but there are always the traditional options available as well at least in stores if not from a brewery. Even the old big beer AALs are still available in most stores and bars. We can have it all.

If I had to pick one of those movements to suggest what I think the beer movement is most like, it is probably the marijuana movement, where people think bigger is better, and always going for excess, higher abv, more hops, more fruit, more whatever. I don’t really think it is a bad thing, but it may be a bit unnecessary as well, but the great thing about beer again is we can have it both ways. Even with the bigger is better mentality trending and seeming to take over, there are still the traditional old imports that are great and hold their quality to stand up to most of what is made in this country, and there are still the BMC beers for the people who want those. Nobody has to take over, and the old will always be there even as the new moves in and tries to take hold. We have the best of both worlds really, the option to choose whatever our hearts desire, that is available at least. It’s a great thing.

I do see a trend towards locality as well, as long as good breweries keep popping up all over the country and world. Some of these big regional breweries that distribute across country seem to have bitten off too much at certain points, and some are dealing with the consequences of our current market that seems to be rapidly changing. As long as the beer is good it should remain I think. It doesn’t matter where it’s from or what it’s doing there, if it’s good and people like it then I see no reason to get rid of it and deny it, at least from a customer standpoint. If the sales are low then the businesses might draw back.

I’m still motivated to consider myself a part of the craft beer movement. It’s amazing how this country went from a near monopoly on the beer market to what we have today, worldwide influences creating beer as an art as well as business. I see myself and others pretty satisfied with where beer has gone. Sure we might have 20% abv fruity sour black milkshake pastry IPAs, but there is also that 5% abv Pilsner, and that 4% light lager or AAL, and the west coast IPAs, the English styles, Belgians, German beers, and all other traditional styles of beer still available. I can see myself drinking beer forever simply because of all the variety and different options available. With over 100 beer styles to be enjoyed, I find it hard to be completely bored with beer.

There is so much great beer out there to be discovered and tasted. I only wish everyone had access to every beer, but of course due to limited resources and distribution laws, capacity of breweries, etc, that is not viable. Prices getting lower on average would be a great thing as well, but as prices of resources go up, that doesn’t seem too viable either until a brewery has made enough profit and slows growth to a point where just about everything made is profit. Then, like the bigger regional breweries, prices could be easily and justifiably lowered. For a smaller and newer business it doesn’t seem too realistic though unfortunately. If in 10-20 years more beers are more widely available, fresh, cheaper, and local breweries are good, and everyone is enjoying good beer, or at least beer that they like, then that would be an ideal future for beer. Only time will tell though, I suppose.

 

I think this happens with everything - for more-or-less anything that people do for fun, some people want it to be constantly surprising, varied and challenging, and then there's a spectrum of neophilia through to people who enjoy it but want it to be basically predictable, consistent and unchallenging.[1] But there tend to be lots more people whose tastes are towards the unchallenging end, so a new, exciting, varied thing will tend start small and then tend to grow at the cost of becoming more and more predictable, until eventually it's everywhere but it's lost most of what people originally found exciting about it.

Another example - here's someone who's into the London urban music scene talking about the same phenomenon in 2009 in relation to music scenes:
http://blackdownsoundboy.blogspot.com/2009/03/on-origin-of-scenes.html

[1] This isn't a value judgement, btw - I'm sure there are loads of areas where my taste is totally pedestrian.

 

I'm just thinking that one potentially critical difference exists between the movements used as analogies introduced by @cavedave in thinking about the current craft beer scene/environment. Each of the four examples in his throughful OP was something new and/or a rebellion. With the case of flavorful beer we're talking about something that can be seen as a rejuvenation/reawakening of what had once been the case in the past and in fact still was common in some other countries (e.g., the UK, Germany, Poland, Belgium, etc.)

Some of the early flavorful beer brewers were attempting to recreate something they had found and enjoyed while serving in the military in Europe. Another (Maytag) was focused on preserving/reinvigorating his favorite beer that was about to go extinct (Anchor Steam).

So perhaps the "revolution" is not critical and might even be misleading in overview, depsite the fact that some 2nd/3rd round of early starters wanted to pose what they were doing that way.

In any event, I'd say what we've seen the last 10-15 years is a reflection of a major cultural shift in popular tastes and agree with those who think it "ain't goinna go away soon."

 

I think coffee is a good comparison. For that reason, I think sweetened, flavored, and fruity-tasting beers will continue to make inroads, as will higher ABV offerings. Just look at what people order at Starbucks.

I do think we will see more consolidation going forward. There are only so many small breweries that can charge $16 a four pack and still get shelf space.

 

Contrary to what the mythology says, it never went away here either- it was just a niche product, and you had to make a little bit of effort to get what you wanted.

 

With each passing year there will be more and more people for whom beer shelves filled with variety will always have existed. I suspect that this will have an effect on the novelty aspect of craft beer with new consumers, perhaps this variety will simply be percieved as clutter by many, rather than something new and exciting. Maybe they wont mind or notice a process of SKU rationalization where the retailers start to focus on a smaller set of brands within the major craft styles (which consumer really needs hundreds of different IPAs?). I could see branding and marketing become alot more important for breweries wanting to remain a contender. And maybe the large breweries will once again come to dominate the major styles with successful marketing backed by millions of dollars. Alot of people have written off the large breweries as having some sort of animosity towards flavor in beer, rather than being attuned to what sells. Once they have figured out how to sell beer with stronger flavors, in volume, for a profit, I suspect that they will be all over it, and good at it.

There will still be a market for smaller volume, niche styles of beer, but I suspect that it will become smaller with fewer participants as the novelty factor of craft beer wears off with each successive generation of new beer drinkers.

 

To be honest, I think the term "movement" is over used in many circles. It's beer. No doubt there were many pioneers and innovators that worked hard to get into a market dominated by years of AAL's, and for that I think all of us are grateful. I started drinking "craft" (remember when it was microbrews?) because I wanted beer that tasted the way it was supposed to, and I was tired of drinking rice and corn. I never looked at what I drink as taking part in some sort of statement, I love beer and I now have tons of options. I enjoy talking with people who like beer, both here and in person, but I have other interests as well.
What I do see, and this applies to my other interests as well, is the marketing of this as a culture or lifestyle. This is what brings in a lot of D bags that tend to ruin shit. Hype, social media, the next big thing crowd etc. Don't like it, Don't know if I like it, but I have to have it types.

 

There are actually quite a few places still out there that only have Sam Adams and SNPA as their only craft option.

 

Craft beer is not and was never a movement. It's a consumable good people have attached undo feelings towards. It stems from the false 'us vs. them' narrative that was sold to consumers and eaten up blindly for years.

 

Thats exactly what im saying though, everywhere has at least one of those in addition to the AAL and lite AAL standards. Its been a long while since I bought a drink somewhere that only sold standard american big brews