How long can the boom last?

I can't think of a time when they did that - usually only the publicly-traded breweries (like Boston Beer and, formerly, CBA) do that. Sometimes it'll appear in an article about the brewery where a Grossman or another SN exec might mention it.

 

I'll add to this...

There's a beer store on the MD/VA line on the Eastern Shore of VA/MD where ALL of the craft is in cold storage (fairly large selection, too)... while I don't get there often, I respect them for doing this.

 

Yeah, maybe in an article.

For example in the Brewbound article I linked above there is yearly sales data (as relative percentage amounts):

"White takes over a company that narrowly returned to growth in 2018 after two consecutive years of mid-single digit declines. According to Whitney, Sierra Nevada’s sales increased 0.2 percent, which amounted to about 25,000 cases."

If you see something similar to the above for 2019 please let me know.

Cheers!

 

Any guess on amount of refrigeration there? For example x number of beer refrigerator units?

 

Yeah, after the New Year, I usually keep a running total whenever I see the previous year's barrelage noted for any brewery in random articles (I think some new source, like USA Today, often releases figures for the Top 10 or so right before the B.A. does - I think using their stats). It used to be relatively easy - search the brewery's name plus "barrels" or "barrelage" but with all the !@#$ barrel-aged beers, that don't work so good no more.

 

Yes, and my local rep says the Oktoberfest collaboration does great numbers.

 

There's a list of openings and closings in every issue of New Brewer. The openings list is always longer.

 

Old beer is the norm even at smaller craft stores, it’s unfortunate but it’s true. Small businesses can’t afford to let beer sit forever but it does, places like Total Wine live off AALs and wine, craft beer is probably seen as a pain in the ass to manage.

 

This tells me that their first beer in a new and popular style has a lot more growth potential than the beers they've been putting out for decades. The thing about percentage growth is that the bigger you get the harder it is to achieve. SNPA probably doesn't have a ton of market share left to gain

 

Maybe some, I haven't been to the east coast in a decade so I don't know. But my experience everywhere I've been is that all this negative stuff is a feature of certain breweries, bars, and stores. I've never had a problem finding solid beer in classic styles in any part of the.country. And in places I've known for years in the Midwest there has never been more access to great beers from European legends to us craft stalwarts to up and comers

 

Some of the breweries showing up in one of my beer stores I have to google who they are, I bet their footprint in some cases are maybe 30 miles. There's a bunch out of Raleigh, but I’d never blindly buy a six, and I’m not in the area to see anything on tap. It’s tough sometimes, but I know I can always turn to Burial if all else fails, they have the freshest beer and they have the most shelf and floor space too.

 

Thanks for asking. I enjoy a very wide range of second-category beer styles (flavorful beer-that-tastes-like-beer). I generally don't enjoy first-category beer (intentionally low-flavor beer; mostly AALs, ALLs, and EPLs) or third-category beer (flavorful beer intentionally designed to taste like something other than beer, usually remarkably sweet). Within that second category, which until a few years ago encompassed the vast majority of craft beers and non-pale-lager imports, I'm incredibly unpicky among styles.

That said, being a flavor fan, my favorite beers tend to be slow sours (i.e., not quick, kettle-soured beers) and wild ales (unfruited or fruit-backward), bitter IPAs (English, West Coast, Midwest, or generically American), imperial stouts and related styles without flavoring adjuncts or distracting whiskey-barrel aging, rauchbiers and other smoke beers (if you want to draw a distinction), various Belgian styles from saisons to quadrupels, and high-flavor, "crisp" lagers such as hops-forward Bohemian pilsners and complex bocks and doppelbocks. I think you'll see all of the greatest national brewing traditions present among my favorites (English, German, Belgian, Czech, and contemporary American). I also love, perhaps most of all, style-busting, palate-challenging, truly innovative, unique beers that avoid gimmicky ingredients. My desert island beer is Orval, as it tastes different every time yet always is good to great; it's one of the few beers I regularly repurchase.

I do tend to respond less favorably to the lower flavor, lower complexity styles such as bitters, blonde ales, and Irish red ales, just to name a few, not because they offend my palate (they most certainly do not, and I'd be happy to drink them if more flavorful alternatives weren't available) but because I can handle and prefer more flavor. But I'm from the Michael Jackson school of "My favorite beer is the one I haven't tried yet." I do most of my drinking at breweries, and I order flights and small pours whenever possible. I like to challenge my palate and go out of my way to order among some of the beers in my flights beers that don't initially appeal to me, be they third-category beers (of which I've sampled all-too-many and am very familiar; "know thy enemy") or seemingly boring second-category beers, and I've experienced quite a few pleasant surprises, even -- although rarely -- within the dreaded third category.

I truly think I have one of the wider ranges of palate preferences among regular posters on this site (not bragging but rather observing); I just happen actively to dislike a grouping of presently popular styles specifically because they're designed to eschew the flavors that I love in beer and rather to emphasize familiar flavors from other realms.

 

From memory, at least twice of what I see in the pic (I see 4 windows, and I recall the selection being 8ish windows long, maybe more). TBH, I don't see how the place will get on in the craft beer wasteland of the Eastern Shore.

 

The boom has already forced me out of buying from local breweries as $15-$25/4-packs are way too expensive when the product is not consistently world class. I find myself buying from breweries like SN or even marcos now...the breweries charging $15 for a 4 pack of pils can fuck off.

 

Bear with me folks, I'm just catching up here...

It's difficult to say this as a blanket statement, I believe, as the market varies considerably depending on where you live. Ten to fifteen years ago, living here in central Florida was a curse because we had very little selection, and almost zero local breweries (unless you lived in Tampa). Nowadays, we're still like half a decade behind everyone, but perhaps that's why your statement doesn't apply. Just the other day I bought an English pale ale, a Belgian trippel, a RIP, and a classic American IPA from my grocery store. Sure, there are hazy options available, but just a few. Maybe in five years we'll be overrun!

I think we may be flavor twins! My only disagreement with you is that I tend to love barrel aged beer.

Here in Florida, I've found that Publix has such a fast turn around on beer that the date issue doesn't really exist, and their selection is pretty damn solid. They also change it up quite a bit! I go to places where I know they don't have good turn around for styles that age well like stouts or doppelbocks! Mmmmmm.................

 

And I could easily find multiple brands of these types of beers at my local Retail Beer Distributor. Lots of beer selections for those customers who are not fans of Juicy/Hazy IPAs, Pastry Stouts, Milkshake beers,...

But there are indeed plenty of beer brands for people who like Juicy/Hazy IPAs, Pastry Stouts, Milkshake beers,...

It is not an either/or choice in my area (SEPA).

Cheers!

P.S. My last two 6-pack purchases: Schlafly Kolsch and Sterling Pig Shoats Pilsner.

 

Interesting, so before the boom were these local breweries charging less for their product? Or is the boom what brought them in to existence in the first place? To me this seems like the consistent rub between buying local and going mass market. Small stores tend to charge less than Was-Mart or Amazon, farm to table will cost you more than Applebees. Some of it comes down to the type of consumer you want to be. As I am guessing happens with many, I try to support local, but sometimes those big places are just too damn convenient.

 

oops, just see my error, should say "small stores tend to charge MORE than Wal-Mart or Amazon". One was an auto correct, the other me typing too fast I guess...

 

Looking at the Brewers Association's stats, I'd say the "boom" is over, as far as growth of the segment is concerned.

Sure, the number of breweries continues to increase, but most are not growing even close to the rate once common.


CRAFT BREWERS CONFERENCE: Slowing Growth in 2018 was ‘Not a Blip’ --- Brewbound

 

JK, I suppose the fundamental issue is what is the proper metric for defining growth?

If a person would choose to use the metric of number of craft breweries then there still appears to be robust growth.

If instead a person would choose to use the metric of volume (i.e., barrels per year) then growth has appeared to level off (e.g., 4% per year) over the past few years but 4% growth per year is still pretty good when comparing to the volume growth for beers from breweries like Anheuser-Busch, etc.

Are you of the opinion that volume production is the proper metric here?

Cheers!

P.S. Do you by any chance have statistics for volume growth per year which includes beer from breweries that the Brewers Association excludes (e.g., Lagunitas, Founders, etc.)?