Pandemic Predictions

1) True
2) False, Can't possibly be true if #1 is true!
3) Unfortunately, part A is true. The restaurant business is tough in the best of times.
4) Too political, so no comment.
5) Requires shopping, so probably not.
6) Allowing for the hype of your 5 digits of accuracy, yes.

 

1) Agreed. Weed, too.
2) Disagreed. Some news outlets are saying the opposite (a spike in birth rates). Then again, some news outlets also like to speak out of their their collective asshole(s). We shall see.
3) Agreed. It's already happening, unfortunately. But much like a wildfire, new trees businesses will grow in their place eventually.
4) Abstained. Fuck politics and/or politicians.
5) Agreed. My local homebrew shop has been doing shipping so I'm already cleaning off my old equipment in hopes of returning to homebrewing.

 

Couple thoughts

2. Think a spike in pregnancies, but also spike in divorces (with everyone hunkered)
4. In your (our) dreams

 

1. overall trend will be up for sure.
2. Pandemic? F$¢# like there is no tomorrow buddy!
3. Some good ones will go. Some bad ones will go. Good people will get back on the horse.
4. I'll bite. It is his way of campaigning since he can't campaign, maybe? Meh.
5. I posed the same question about home brew clubs and thought it could go up since parts and materials can be delivered...
6. 2020 will go down as "the year companies realized remote work is good", "the year that never was" or "the year of the bored, unemployed internet troll", tbd. I also fully expect a South Park episode follow-up to the original SARS-COV-1 episode.

 

Also, this period will either generally make marriages stronger or will result in more divorce. The jury is out and there really is a presidential election happening somewhere in the background. Stay on your toes everyone. Watch all of these "players" and decide who is truly trustworthy. Pay attention to actions and not words. But do not forget the words.

 

I predict we will be down to perhaps 5000 or less craft breweries after this clears. Sad for those owners.

 

Yeast is already in short supply, or sold out, for baking, and likely will soon be in short supply for brewing as well, since it's all cerevisiae and not that far off in price difference for some of them.

 

So my prediction of home brewing increases and collaboration is right?

 

Or people are willing to pay home brew prices for beer yeast to use in home baking as they shelter in place.

 

As relates to number two.

Businessweek:
China’s Divorce Spike Is a Warning to Rest of Locked-Down World

(Can't seem to get the link to work)

 

That would be ugly for home brewers that can't cultivate their own yeast.

 

As for 6, the 100,000 to 200,000 deaths figure is if we respond correctly from now on. Some states still haven't instituted stay at home, social distancing and essential business only rules.
Supplies are not getting where they are needed. The figure could get into the millions.

Wallace Roney passed yesterday from complications w/ Covid-19.

 

Bad prediction. I see you are in the U.S. Already, almost 0.001% of Americans have died. If we reach the 100,000 figure, which seems like an optimistic projection at this point, that will mean 0.03% of Americans have died, and 99.97% made it through. A million dead means 99.7% made it.

But I can't disagree with much else, other than, I'm not sure what happens to alcohol consumption when people can only drink at home. Breweries, restaurants, etc., were always a big part of my consumption. I don't just replace one with the other. And since I don't live near any breweries, my beer options are limited.

 

I think a lot of the breweries that popped up to ride the wave will be gone after this. I believe the breweries that were solid and doing very well will come out of this and shine again and actually do even better in time.
Cheers

 

2) I don't know..I watched "A Quiet Place" and Emily Blunt and John Krasinski had no problems knocking boots even after the monsters were killing anything that made a sound. Maybe they thought their baby would be the quiet one?

 

At least locally (western burbs of Chicago), there's a lot of support for curbside pick up at breweries/restaurants. I"m curious how long that will last though. Most areas are just 2 weeks into this. If/when this goes on for another 4-6 weeks, how many can still keep shelling out for carryout a couple times a week?

 

I guess it has a lot to do with one's threshold for risk- I would much rather pay more if I believe the food safety precautions at the local carryout place are a safer bet than braving the packed grocery store where I can't social distance myself.

And by the same token, what the hell else am I going to spend my money on at this point essentially being under house arrest.

 

What, really, could stop anyone from knocking boots with Emily Blunt?