Pandemic Predictions

Very true, when people are out of work or low on cash craft beer will be off the list for many, that 20 bucks will be needed for food, gas ,etc.
The next 3 weeks will determine things, if we get lucky and the virus slows it may be ok for business but if we get slammed as predicted and worse I don't see much hope for many small places, that is just the honest truth. Also, once the hump passes we are looking at months after of illness, slow economic recovery, etc. Families will be conservative with cash so eating out and other luxury items will be low on the list of many.
Cheers and stay safe.

 

Northern Brewer(.com) is 'out of stock' on many of their popular recipe kits -so there's that...

 

You overestimate the intelligence of the average American Consumer Dave. I don't think many people would be able to figure out that beer yeast is the same as bread yeast.

 

Or you do. Walmart on line has em all on the same page.

 

<-Puts down his glass and spits out his sip of bread.

 

Huh? 327,000,000/100,000=.00003*100=.003%

 

Without any reflection on the assumptions underpinning the model or the numbers in the projections...

Didactically, it would be:
(100,000 / 327,000,000) x 100

But your math is wrong - you added a zero somewhere.
0.03% would be correct.

Cheers! And looking forward to the day we can all gather again with friends in good spirits to share beers together.

 

Just in case folks didn't realize what I was trying to say regarding brewers yeast- Yes, S. cerevisiae is the same yeast for baking and for brewing. If you brew beer and think that folks aren't smart enough to know they are the same-

Walmart shows all yeasts, baking yeast and brewing yeast, on the same page, all together. I submit people aren't smart enough to realize that the yeasts on that page aren't all baking yeast. Sure S-05 is obviously a brewing yeast, but it is for sale on the same page as baking yeast.

I am repeating this in case you are a brewer, it might be smart to get your yeast now, as actual inexpensive baking yeast is gone, and folks aren't smart enough not to spend extra on brewer's yeast when that is the result you get from a search for baking yeast on Walmart online store.

 

I’ve got yeast......don’t have the flour

I already saw a report that alcohol sales are up astronomical with beer being behind wine and spirits percentage wise.

I think there will be a lot of babies.

I feel that this will be the long haul and we are only in the beginning stages world wide.

If there is not some anti viral that can help alleviate symptoms or cure this virus I don’t know how it just goes away in a month or so.

Herd immunity needs million and millions to be infected. Maybe the plasma treatments they are working on can help with this. There is still no hard facts showing you will be immune or even stay immune once you recover from this strain of corona. Look at the common cold.

I think the super small places will be ok but the small and mid might get hit really bad as will some large as well. I can only support local for so long. At $18-26 a 4 pack it’s not sustainable for me even pre virus.

The more I think and read what scientists are saying the more I feel this is Mother Nature hitting back as hard as Scott Stevens hitting Lindros.

Be smart stay safe

Enjoy

 

Mother Nature always wins @Giantspace she also provides us with the yeast that makes our favorite beverage. Cheers.

 

I wish I'd have a SO right now!

 

I was looking at stocks to pick for the recovery. Parent company of low end liquor.... stuff like Bacardi, maybe.

Now that I heard that school teacher got it a second time...if true....people are going to get drunk and screw like there's no tomorrow.

See above comment about second potential infection in same person.

I hope all the epidemiologists do a deep dive on who lives and dies out of this virus and can understand what factors played a role more definitively.

This one feels like "Last Man on Earth" at times, if ya remember that TV show.

Get on tinder or whatever and start swiping right on every one you see...and find someone desperate to share some germs

 

More likely minimum 100,000 deaths, unless other "certain states" start locking stuff down in the short-term at least. Ouch.
I'd guess 200,000 based on the numbers and current morbidity/mortality rates, but we'll see.
Not sure why I'm even here. Oh, right. BEER>
back to that...

 

Predictions:
1. More breweries will realize shipping beer can be a new profit center and will continue it in some form as things return to normal.
2. Online video shares/tastings, etc. will continue in some form, such as brewery sponsored sessions, or a zoom share connecting out of town friends people to a live share.

 

Maybe we'll end up with a lot of folks trying their hand at pseudo-Lambics.

 

I stand by my prejudice.

 

Well, aren't you just the cutest little thing.

 

In a nation full of people who think that this virus pandemic is a hoax in a democratic push to get rid of Donald Trump, I find it difficult to find intelligence in our communities.

 

1. Make a start.
2. Split it.
3. Brew with half.
4. Feed the second part with a little of the wort.
5. Repeat.

One can also harvest the yeast from the primary fermantaion, and get enough for 4 more batches.

It is not hard to keep yeast going. If you know other Homebrewers you can get a fresh pitch from them.