Pandemic Predictions

February 28, 2020 - "Now, the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… this is their new hoax."

See France24
https://www.france24.com/en/20200320-from-hoax-to-pandemic-trump-s-shifting-rhetoric-on-coronavirus

See Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...usly-after-calling-it-a-hoax-2020-3?r=DE&IR=T

Just so you know: he said it. It happened. He believed it.

 

I’ll stay out of the political fray as well once Someone shows me a parody of what would have happened if Trump had been in office during Pearl Harbor...

 

Congress not allocating funds?

 

So yeah- not technically part of the administration... thanks

Also I’m a ‘vote em all out’ guy.. for better or worse... so the drain the swamp thing is a great idea, but here we’ve replaced the swamp with a different type of dirtbag- the only change is who’s profiting

 

I'm with you, my strategy of late has just been to vote for whatever 3rd party is closest to getting enough votes to be added to the nationwide ballot. Seems like the only thing that might move the needle a little bit

 

OK, just one more... thanks for the quote, since if you read it, you will see that what he called a hoax was the attempt to politicize it, not the virus itself, and we have seen that come to fruition with Pelosi's new committee.

 

Trump is so far out of his element.

No president has prepared for this situation. I read an article the other day about Bush being attentive to and concerned for the potential of a pandemic of this sort, and even he didn't actually follow through on doing anything about it. Things got in the way, yada yada....


Point being, no president, no party, no anyone was prepared for this situation. The problem has been the response to it....and no one can convince me that Trump is not the least equipped politician to manage it and that he has not caused this country more stress, confusion, and death because he is only starting to recognize he can't bully this virus away. I personally still don't think he fully understands this whole pandemic, which is so dangerous when all we need from him is to have enough of an understanding to be able to delegate the management of the crisis to those who are qualified, trust their handling and recommendations and be able to be the public face, like Cuomo has so effectively been doing (and do we think he was anymore prepared for this than Trump.....some of this might also fall on that Mayor of NYC, but NY sure seemed to drag their heels on closing schools, setting stay at home orders, etc.). But Trump can't get out of his way. He's a pitbull that bullies his way forward and the moment something requires preparation, evaluation, and critical thought he's out of his element and lacks the capacity to even fake it. The moment he is challenged, he is asked to answer something that requires nuance and depth, he ultimately cant....he shuts down and redirects, reflects and attacks.

And a side rant....

Everyone I personally know that supports the "don't let the cure be worse than the disease" argument is someone who has the luxury of working from home, isolated from the risk of the disease but exposed to the risk of the economy. Not a single one of them is willing to work a job that would expose them to the virus personally. Heck, they are also pretty much locking themselves in their homes, having everything delivered to them so that they don't have to go out into the world and put themselves at risks. Let everyone else get sick and die, give me back my paycheck.

 

Pandemic predictions;

• There will be a shakeout in all industries, including brewing, for those struggling already
  
• There will be people who may never leave their houses again, figuring out they prefer that, or become paranoid
  
• For months (or years) bodies of deceased shut-ins will be found
• Several new breweries will open as a result of people getting a good deal on a bankrupt brewery
  
• Some of us will need to restock their beer cellars, while others will realize they don't need much, if any, cellar beer
• Some people will learn that aging beers rarely improves them
  
• Working from home will be very popular until a vaccine comes out, particularly for those at higher risk. Some companies will have a better opinion of it, trusting employees more
• We'll quickly tire of all the epidemic movies, books, and songs
• Used guns will flood the market
• More people will buy alarm systems and security cameras for when they're not home
• Pets will trash houses when they no longer get as much attention and food
• There will be a lot of babies born in about nine months because many people don't think with their brains or understand cause and effect
  
• We'll finally be able to buy hand sanitizer, wipes, and masks - when we no longer need them
• Anti-vaxxers will be quiet for a while
• People who cashed their investments in a down-market will complain the loudest about the economy
  
• Corona beer will become as popular as before, and suck as much

 

I don't want to drag you back into the fray, so I'll make this brief and as apolitical as possible. I did read both articles, as well as several others on the subject. In fact, I checked the actual transcript of the speech. I don't post things I haven't read (and double-checked).

I can understand your interpretation of that statement. It is a reasonable interpretation both from the video and transcript of the speech... But an equally reasonable interpretation of that speech is that the virus is the hoax, and it is being blown out of proportion by the media and politicized by the Democrats for their own gain. Like many of Trump's statements, it lacks clarity.

We obviously disagree as to his meaning. But I do hope that you can understand that some people (myself included), given Trump's continued downplaying of the seriousness of the virus during the months of January and February and indeed in that very same speech in South Carolina where he compared it favorably to the normal flu, interpreted that statement differently from you.

 

The CDC hasn't done their job. Even their modeling is way behind the curve.
If the CDC can't or won't do their job,
Why is that?
Every thing is political. Every Thing.
When leaders can say I messed up, and it was my fault, then, we'll have a better world.
If, The CDC doesn't get their shit together, we are all in for a shit storm.

 

no you can test positive because your body is still working out residual but you no longer infect Social distancing is the killer not only of the psyche but keeping this pneumonia strain from achieving herd immunity in the population and creating second wave in the winter. See scientists Hoover Institution; see
Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski see Nate Silver on the math that will descare you

 

I've just got to say, this seems to be a popular idea that a vaccine is forthcoming but that isn't terribly likely. We have no other vaccines for corona viruses (the common cold, SARS, mers, etc...) So I wouldn't hold my breath for one for this one. More likely we will either see this settle in as another seasonal illness or it will be "eradicated" in the same way SARS was, by requiring contact with a known infection to be diagnosed and eventually the officially "known infections" will go away and, voila, no new cases. That will likely depend on how deadly and how dissimilar to a common respiratory cold this ends up being after the initial waves.

 

Several companies already have vaccines formulated, and one started human testing March 16th. The government is covering the financial risk of starting production while testing continues, so that when testing wraps up, it can hit the market around January, six months earlier than originally predicted.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins

Just saw another story indicating more are starting testing already. Might have to be a "vaccine-off".

 

This popular idea, is just to push some hope in this time of despair and anxiety. You start identifying all the different viruses that we still have no cure or vaccine for, I don't think this country is ready for that thought.

I read that it is going to take around 220 million Americans to be exposed to this virus for herd immunity to kick in. Imagine the devastation that would be on our country. Millions of deaths, millions of more hospitalizations, etc.

Without herd immunity, we need a vaccine or cure to have any hope for being able to move forward. I don't see this being a seasonal virus either, as the weather is getting nicer and nicer, the virus is only getting worse and worse.

Not sure about SARS, MERS and what allowed those to come and then just go....maybe that is our best hope for this one to? What specifically allowed them to become less of a threat?

 

Look at the timeline of Trump's pronouncements from January to now. This is a man detached from reality. But yet he has a great, maybe the best presence on Facebook .I want to be directly on record to describe our president's behavior in the face of this crisis as incredibly odd and self-serving to a increasingly odd degree. I make no apologies and point my finger at obtuse incompetence. Good God, what have we wrought? I am utterly repulsed by Jared Kushner having any bearing on this godawful circumstance.

 

Doesn't the concept of immunity and vaccine go together?

If you can't develop a vaccine, doesn't that cast doubt also on herd immunity? After all, there is no herd immunity to the common cold.

 

Maybe I should jump into the ring and throw punches. I love to argue........... You should see in action in the bars (when they were open) I argue about anything and with anybody.

 

My understanding of herd immunity is limited but as I understand it, herd immunity is more about indirectly being protected from something because everyone else (or most everyone else, or enough of everyone else) has developed immunity to that something that it cushions that individual from being exposed to it; i.e. if virus x enters into a community through person x, it is likely not to spread and reach someone without immunity because, most likely, those who person x comes into contact with will have immunity to it and it won't spread further.

The idea with herd immunity as it relates to Covid-19 is the idea/belief/theory that similar to how other viruses work, once one is exposed to the virus the body will develop the antibodies to fight it off in the future and one will have become immune to it without the need for a vaccine, so once enough people are exposed to Covid-19 and become immune, herd immunity could develop.

 

At the time,

It is important to remember that Pelosi, who I am also not a fan/supporter of, and the commissioner were making statements at the time that they felt were correct because they were basing these statements on the assumption that they had informed, up to date, accurate information regarding Corona Virus. When they in fact did not have informed, up to date, accurate information. And the reason for this is in large part because the Trump administration only acted on the aspects of the information they had received and were receiving that they felt would go over well with Trump's base and that would not do damage to the economy. Banning travel to China from America was an easy move. A correct move, but we know a big reason it was implemented is because it was/is good optics for Trump in the eyes of most of his base more so than because it was a right thing to do. Because what matters to Trump the most is how he looks to others and what other people think of him. If a sizable chunk of Americans think he is doing a good job and his poll ratings are higher, that's good as far as Trump is concerned. And if the stock market is doing good, well golly that's even better for his image! What's actually good for the country is secondary at absolute best to these other things. So, while stopping travel to China from America was/is relatively easy for the Trump administration to implement 2 + months ago for the reasons I just listed above, the Trump administration even starting to consider 2 + months ago that things like shelter in place/stay at home orders that cause businesses to close and the stock market to go down could become necessary and things like ordering millions of testing kits were not even a possibility for the Trump administration 2 + months ago because those sorts of things would make him look bad. Because when the stock market that Trump likes to take so much credit for (never mind the fact that it was solidly on the rise already in the last few years of the previous administration) might start to level off and god forbid go down, well that could cause people to feel uneasy and lose faith in dear leader! And Trump just can't stand to have any of that. Not until the Corona Virus situation started to become so bad even someone as stupid as Trump could still ignore/down play it.

Eric

 

in this case: herd immunity is let every body get it and those that were weak to it at the time of personal infection die. The strong live, weak die = strong herd.

So if you survive the first time of being infected, will you be immune to it years later when another wave hits? The most important thing is to save the economy and keep the stock market high right?.