Pandemic Predictions

I think this is the end of $75+ wholesale cases of non local NEIPA at bars

 

I predict it will become obvious that, rather than no plan, or a bad plan, this scattershot, delayed, ineffective effort (being kind) by the federal govt. IS the plan.

I liken it to a farmer trying to make financial decisions, trying to weigh the cost of all the treatment options for his animals, and make choices that make the best business sense.

I think the plan of our "farmer" is to develop herd immunity faster than other "farms". Even though thousands of preventable deaths will be realized, in the long run it will cost less money for the owners of the farm, and will get the farm back to business more quickly. That is all farmers need to concern themselves with concerning farm animals.

I predict the fallout to the beer industry will be significantly less than the 46% attrition figure quoted in another thread. I predict that a high percentage of those breweries that do fail will be ones that, on average, are the lower rated ones here on BA.

 

The President doesn't have the authority to issue a nationwide "stay at home" order. He can recommend and encourage Governors to do so, but he can't do it.

He activated the Act, but there was no need to invoke it at the time because companies were already making the needed items, it was invoked when GM balked. In short, The DPA was activated so the mechanism would be in place when needed, it was later invoked when some companies didn't produce voluntarily.

I dislike almost every policy his administration has implemented and would never vote for him, but I will admit that Cuomo is doing a very good job dealing with this crisis. His policies have made NY the highest overall taxed state, burdened us with hidden fees and unfunded mandates, and created a business unfriendly environment .

Yes, there have been over 20,000 deaths in the US, but things aren't actually as bad as they seem because everyone keeps talking about the raw numbers rather than the actual risk.
As of today the US is doing better than 5 times as well as Italy
USA
Pop. 331,002,651 Deaths 20,637 Percentage 0.00623%
Italy
Pop 60,461,826 Deaths 19,468 Percentage 0.03219%
Spain
Pop 46,754,778 Deaths 16,972 Percentage 0.03630%
France
Pop 65,273,511 Deaths 13,832 Percentage 0.02119%
UK
Pop 67,886,011 Deaths 9,875 Percentage 0.01454%

 

I have been hearing this the more I look into him. I was not overly familiar with his policy. I only have been seeing him on his morning talks and liked how he handled things. Sounds like Joe will be the guy since things are set in motion so any outside person is pretty much done now.

 

Your statistics do nothing to refute my statement. Had this administration and the right-wing media listened to medical experts, the death toll would be lower, period. The bizzare disdain for science that has gripped a lot of the Republican party will cost us all dearly again.

 

Disregard mortality statistics for this country, med. experts I have listened to have said. There is no meaningful gen. pop. testing in this country, only limited testing of any kind, and as I understand it, without those figures computing mortality isn't possible.

Truth is he hasn't done significantly worse than other governors, all of whom have contributed in my lifetime to the tax mess we are in. I don't vote for either "major" party, ever, so I have no dog in this race. So it isn't partisan crap when I say our present governor has done more real good for craft beer drinkers and brewers in this state than every other governor going back to the state's founding, combined.

 

I went to a major grocery store yesterday, first time doing this in about 3+ weeks, I wore gloves and a mask. I noticed many people are shopping as usual: no gloves, no mask and not even trying to keep any distance. Not good, They are not taking this serious enough at this point in time. On a side note I recently went 8 days without leaving the house/yard. In the last three or four weeks before yesterday I went out in in public about 4 times, this is in short walking distance only to a small grocery and liquor store ( in and out quickly wearing protection etc).

My point is why the hell are too many people not taking this seriously and will we ever stop the spread at this rate? Are we just hoping it stops on it's own?

 

The president can set a national policy for the states to follow. They can refuse, but it's more likely they would go along. Instead he keeps feeding the public mixed messages. That's why so many states failed to take the measures all states should take.

He should have used the Defense Production Act immediately. It was clear PPE supplies were needed from the very beginning. Waiting to see if companies would produce voluntarily when lives are at stake is just another example of piss poor judgment. Another example of underestimating the crises.

 

Per capita analysis will typically make smaller countries appear worse except for certain cases which you'll see below. Spain, Italy, and the UK are naturally going to appear far far worse. They're objectively doing a poor job for a variety of reasons.

Now let's compare the US with countries that have had great success.


Notice the US curve compared to the less populous nations in this graph? I pointed this out before, but considering the proximity of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan to China, you'd think their statistics would be far worse than ours. Instead, they're an order of magnitude of lower despite being having higher density urban cores with vastly superior transit systems. What's different is that their responses to the crisis were more swift and robust.

The data is there. I'm not sure why you guys keep downplaying the situation here. It's like you guys can't handle reality and retreat to some kind of fantasy land. Wake up, sheesh.

 

I agree, plus capitalism failed, social responsibility of big corporations failed (if there really is such a thing just faking it only), common sense failed.

 

I was asking myself that question where I live 6 weeks ago, as it was obvious to me that the cases that were in NYC would spread up here as the citiots fled the city. I took as much precaution as I could do, and that shopping trip I was the ONLY person I saw with face protection, let alone disinfectant wipes, paper towels, and hand sanitizer. One week later I saw two other people with protection, but the virus already had gotten orders of magnitude worse, so I was like WTF?. March 16 was my last day in a store setting and there still were only a few people with protection, despite at this point it had spread heavily into my area some hours north of epicenter. To me, any city could become the next epicenter if folks don't take this shit seriously.

 

I hear you, dude. I live in rural PA and it’s amazing to see how many people are walking around without a face mask on. Not only are you disrespecting yourself, you’re also disrespecting me. That’s the way I look at it.

On another note, the first case in the very small county I live in came from someone who had been traveling from NYC.

 

I heard today we are expecting it to get bad in the next two weeks, Philly area. Been in most of the weeks but on my weekly grocery curbside or beer curbside I see too many parking lots full of people , groups hanging out at close distance and places that I can’t believe are needed business, Rita’s water ice should not be open with lines of people.

I need to make a few masks so I can go out to buy some supplies I can’t get delivered. I won’t be hanging around. Get in get out.

Till people take this seriously it won’t end. All these folks strolling around Stores just to have something to do Shows me that in the end this country of me first entitled shit heads is doomed down the road. I can only hope this mess pulls us closer and gets things going in a better way that does not worship money. Bring some jobs back here, make things here, stop relying on the world to make everything for pennies and pollute even more to ship it here. Do we really need to save a few $ or can’t we pay that extra to support us. I also hope that paid time off and sick leave become available for all. Pay a decent wage. I really think that health care needs to be fixed in a big way. I don’t understand why it’s hitched to a job. Why this administration wants to fuck us out of health care is another issue and another reason to vote them out. Is that their plan all along along with not being proactive or providing leadership in this crisis? Do they honestly want to see more death in the parts of the population they despise. I often wonder.

Don’t get me started on the churches that held in person services today and what I think of them.

Stay safe Be smart

Enjoy

 

Not necessarily, the international travel restrictions were delayed by a week due to disagreements between the security advisors and health advisors. Security wanted to close borders immediately while health wanted to follow WHO guidelines which were strongly against travel restrictions.

CDC & task force have issued recommendations and guidelines, it's up to the Governors to implement them.

and those supplies were being voluntarily manufactured. There was no need to use federal authority to force companies to do something they were already doing. When some companies balked, GM in particular, that was the time to invoke the DPA.

The Chinese data is not reliable. S. Korea & Taiwan were well prepared due to their experience with SARS a few years ago, they are also small, homogeneous countries with a strong culture of uniting against adversity.
Otherwise total number of deaths is irrelevant. All things being equal the country with the larger population should have a higher number of deaths. While the data shows that the US has the highest number of deaths overall it also shows that we have among the lowest number of deaths as a percentage of the population. Though we were slow to respond, our response has been more effective than most anyone else.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...sked-fauci-if-officials-could-let-coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...rebuffed-social-distancing-advice-coronavirus

Have you been watching Trump's daily "press briefings"? I have always loved debating politics and I used to be able to find common ground with almost everybody. It saddens and frightens me that almost half of Americans can watch his antics nightly and support him and his handling of this pandemic. He is an embarrassment. This must not be our new normal. Would any of you want your kids to behave the way he does? I'm going to try to stick to talking about beer here now. Be well sir.

 

[QUOTE="officerbill, post:

CDC & task force have issued recommendations and guidelines, it's up to the Governors to implement them.


and those supplies were being voluntarily manufactured. There was no need to use federal authority to force companies to do something they were already doing. When some companies balked, GM in particular, that was the time to invoke the DPA.


[/QUOTE]

Recommendations from the CDC weren't recommended by the president. Mixed messages from the president even left some mayors attempts at social distancing overridden by governors that don't want to upset trump.


Ha ha, yes, I can certainly agree that supplies were being manufactured somewhere by someone. Obviously not nearly enough and not quickly enough. The urgency of the situation just didn't get thru to this administration. Even while it was happening. Even now testing should be ramped up and trump downplays the need for testing.

 

GM did not balk at making ventilators. Their partner, Ventec, to which GM is a supplier, gave 4 production and price options to the Feds. They didn't like the price or the timing and said they were going to reevaluate. GM said they were committed to making the ventilators anyway. The Trump said he was activating "P". Last I read GM never got the legal paperwork. The contract with Ventec has been issued, the final price was below the ventilator average.

Edit in all the ventilator drama y'all have probably missed that GM started making masks at a closed transmission plant in Warren MI.

 

The only thing I didn't adopt until recently was the wearing of a mask. I wanted to wait until official guidelines came out on how to wear them.

I'm still on the fence about whether they're beneficial or not. I see MANY people not wearing them correctly, and an even greater number of people repeatedly touching and adjusting them...meaning they're touching their faces.

For what it's worth, I wear one everywhere, even when I'm outside running (which sucks because it's harder to breathe, but gotta do my part).

So what about Germany?

83 million people

129,369 cases (less than New York)

3,089 deaths (about a third less than New York)

New York has about 20 million people...

 

Neither is the understated US data

Sounds like a good reason to tap into their expertise, follow their example, or just anything except delay testing by a month-and-a-half longer when S. Korea and the US had their first positive case on the same day.

The only country with more deaths per 1M than New York currently is San Marino. So ya, maybe more effective than them.

 

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At least this conversation is courteous. Other convos on other pages are filled with the "fire Fauci" type of people, who seem always to be chanting na na na na, and have fingers in ears when info is presented, and often get...surly.

At least it seems courteous to me. I do notice that all 4 pages show there is ignored content