How Many Breweries Will Be Active in the US Five Years From Now?

More breweries =/= more LARGE breweries.

More taprooms, more true Micro and Nano outfits is my best guess. 10,000+!

 

Haha, I just voted in Jeff's poll. I said 8-10k. Every time I feel like we've hit market saturation, more breweries pop up. I don't think the growth will be as great, but I do think we see more breweries come to be. That will be offset by some breweries calling it quits.

 

I am with @Chaz in that I think the number of breweries will be greater 5 years from now but the vast majority (> 99%) of the new breweries that open will be of the small taproom type. I would not be surprised that in 5 years the volume of beer (e.g., as measured by barrels) is less but there will be more and more breweries producing small quantities on an annual basis. Essentially a continued locavore movement.

A situation of less is more!?!

Cheers!

 

I think the same. The local breweries producing the best beer around me right now don't appear to have any plan to increase production for distribution, but are content with taproom only and to-go cans/crowlers. One new trend around me is breweries opening with fairly high end kitchens and dining options. A couple of them have in house food options as good as any local high end restaurant

 

Depends on the source for statistics...Untappd counts homebrewers and breweries. So depends on who is spinning the stats. Like when a person was employed with good benefits and then loses his job but can only get a temp job with no benefits and $20k paycut.... the guy at the podem still says “employment figures are looking strong”!

 

I think the number of breweries will keep growing. At least in NJ breweries are still opening and many more are planed. Very few seem to be closing.

 

I'm willing to be proven wrong in 5 years, but I still hold the opinion that we're at (or slightly above) carrying capacity.

The huge and very rapid move toward seltzers (see BBC 2020 stats for example) as well as the ongoing flailing approach of sweet/fruit beers is a bellwether to me that the portion of the craft consumers that really only liked the craft experience is about ready for the next thing.

I think the posts above regarding more nano/local breweries make good points, and I would very much like to see that happen. I just am not entirely convinced that many nano breweries can make a solid business case.

 

I don’t really see it growing especially in tight economic times, it tough on the breweries and tough on the patrons who are financially suffering. We might be dealing with this thing for years, if I’m a lender you’d need some equity to secure funds, it’s one of those businesses where the margins are narrow to begin with and they can’t afford slow business. I stopped into the local craft bar to get some take out wings, and there were maybe 5 people in there, how they survive I haven’t a clue. Perhaps AB and BBC are doing great with take out Sixers and such, but smaller breweries I have my doubts.

 

So, if they were a restaurant review website, would they count every residential kitchen in the US, too?
I think I'll stick with the TTB's stats:

Yeah, that figure seems to have peaked around 2008.

That does complicate matters since legally hard seltzers are taxed and counted in the "malt beverage" production numbers.

 

I wonder if Covid will have an impact. Breweries that were struggling won't make it this year. Factor in all the bars and restaurants that are going under and that has to hurt breweries as well. I'm betting the 5 year period will be unprecedented in relation to 5 years where a pandemic wasn't happening.

 

Every brewery I’ve seen close and new one opens in the same spot. I think more breweries will continue to open. The larger mid sized breweries are felling the impact while it seems like the small local Breweries are doing better now then ever.

there is no shortage then homebrewers that want to chase their dream. In my homebrew club two guys are opening a new brewery this year and another guy is in the process.

 

It’s a luxury product in the middle of a pandemic with no end in sight. So some ends of this businesses might be in trouble and perhaps AB or Miller Coors picks up the slack and profit. The brewery/ restaurants/ depends on food revenue etc. , are probably in more trouble as long as the governors restrict occupancy. So instead or buying that Cascade Sour, the buyer opts for something a bit cheaper. Beer retailers are doing good, most people are opting for carry out purchases. Tough racket right now, if the shots works we’ll work our way out sooner than later, so who knows I suspect it’ll take another year to figure out the different strains.

 

This is something that needs to be addressed statistically given the huge growth of FMBs. As with the recent BBC numbers, this confusion drastically misrepresents beer sales (i.e. Sam Adams and DFH down while BBC was up as a whole).

 

We like Beer! Hopefully a bunch keep popping up! 10,000 or more is what I'd like to see!

 

In northern Vietnam they have something called Bia Hoi, which translates as fresh beer. Every hole in the wall on every street brews their own, so I guess technically a brewery. I’m kind of on board with @Chaz on this one. There will be more, but it’s gonna look a lot different than it does now. I’m talking breweries whose clientele might be limited to the surrounding neighbourhood.

 

Vietnam beer hah? Cool! I believe it. I'll keep trading though

 

Trust me, a Saigon Lager works just fine if you’re sitting on the beach there.

 

Unless breweries have a plan of succession(quite a few will be celebrating multiple decades of operation)there will be a drop but that should be overshadowed by the new. Jmho. I voted 8k-10k.