FoBAB 2021

That 5g and mRNA though...

 

It's this kind of flippant, "I don't care about anybody else, screw them, I'm going to do whatever makes me happy" attitude that has made COVID far worse than it needs to be.

It's stinking beer! End of story. If you feel that putting other people at risk (EMTs, nurses, doctors, Uber drivers, security people at the beer event, ticket takers, bus drivers, beer pourers) is more important than beer, then I feel REALLY sorry for the people around you.

We all have to decide. Which is more important? Beer? Or the life and health of our fellow person? If I have to make one choice, forever, I know that I'll choose the life and health of my fellow human being.

And, yes, when there's such callous disregard for the health and safety of other human beings, scolding IS required.

 

Dis' you?


I get the sense you have been beating this horse for a year and don't know how to stop. Will you ever leave the house again?

Do you toe the same line with measles? Most of the population is vaccinated for measles, but god forbid someone actually catches it and spreads it to an uber drive or hospital worker. How dare they put someone's life at risk. No one should go outside ever again.

 

I'd say its still somewhat early in the vaccination process to know a handful of things, such as what percentage of people will be vaccinated by November, whether there's a variant that comes out that turns out to be vaccine resistant, and how long the vaccine is good for. The number of people being vaccinated right now is basically constrained by supply, but at some point its going to start to taper down. Its tough to model what that looks like, so its tough to say what percentage will be vaccinated by the festival. The other two scientists say likely aren't going to happen, but its tough to say for certain at this point.

That means there's a non-0% chance that the festival would need to be cancelled in November, potentially last minute. Is that a 1% chance? 5%? 10%? 25%? What chance is too high and at what point can you start to get a better idea of what that chance is? And when do things like site deposits and lining up breweries, etc have to start? That's really the question. Yeah, based on everything we know, there's a really good chance that it'll be pretty safe to attend, but they also have to see whether they're okay with doing all this planning and potentially putting down deposits, etc and have it not happen again.

Granted GABF is a much bigger production and its a month earlier than FoBaB, but they just announced they they're sitting out 2021 (for the festival at least, competition will still happen). I have to think that FoBaB is going through the same math, and delaying announcing the answer as long as they can.

 

I don't really disagree with any of this, I was just pushing back on RickBelgique being a doom speaker. My point was basically this summary from your post...

Yeah, based on everything we know, there's a really good chance that it'll be pretty safe to attend, but they also have to see whether they're okay with doing all this planning and potentially putting down deposits, etc and have it not happen again.

Anything can happen but the way things are looking it's realistic to say something like FOBAB may be able to happen and be able to happen safely. That's all.

 

Why would it be a callous disregard for the health and safety of people to have an event when a vast, vast majority of the population (including healthcare workers) is vaccinated?

 

I don't disagree. At this point I think it may end up being a business decision and whether the organization that puts on FoBaB is fine with the level of risk of potentially not being able to hold the festival. The large a festival is, the earlier there timelines are likely to be and the higher the impact and/or risk will be.

 

A major trading card convention was just postponed for June. Conventions need governors to allow for a number of people to be profitable for them to make sense. Organizers are in a terrible spot having to forecast how the state/world will be along with what elected officials may allow.

 

So the problem is that your "vast vast majority of the population" may not be quite what we'd all hope - regardless of anyone's personal political opinions, I think we can all agree that a certain loud vocal national group has been disappointingly successful at questioning science and thus driving vaccine reluctance (even though many of them were first to get in line to actually receive the vaccine). NPR had a story just this morning that medical experts are getting worried that we may actually struggle to reach herd immunity anytime soon because so many people are deciding not to get vaccinated. I live in SW Michigan, which has always been a stronghold of very conservative evangelical "don't tell me what to do" types. There are counties around here that have struggled to use up vaccine inventories because not enough people are signing up. The NPR story also made a good point: most of us can personally think of someone in our sphere who has decided not to get vaccinated for whatever reason. All those people add up quick.

 

If Uncle Bob doesn't want to get in the life boat, it's ultimately his choice. He just can't complain that the water is cold and has to accept responsibility that he better be a damned good swimmer. We aren't going to wait around to watch him swim thousands of miles to land while in the life boat.

 

OK, but my point is that the individuals that are choosing not to get vaccinated are the ones that are taking the risk. I'm fully vaccinated at this point. If I go to FOBAB and there's 100 people that aren't vaccinated, I will be be fine. The studies are also showing that I won't pass COVID on to others as well. My long post further up this page had information supporting those points. It also had information showing that by November (and really, much earlier on) we can expect everyone who wants to get a vaccine to have gotten it.

The risk will still be there for people who choose not to get vaccinated, but are we supposed to stop living our lives going forward because those people chose not to get vaccinated?

 

In your example, even if vaccines were 100% effective, the people organizing Fobab still have to consider the consequences of holding an event with the 100 unvaccinated people in mind, if community spread is still relatively high. It’s not about any one individual’s risk if you’re the people planning large indoor events.

 

I get a "she was asking for it by what she was wearing" vibe from those choosing not to get the vaccine and arguing that fobab shouldn't be held. Like "We don't want to get vaccinated, but they were having Fobab and we didn't have the self control to pass up the FOMO so it's Fobab's fault for putting us at risk."

 

Sure, I get there's more to consider from the planning perspective. They have options to mitigate the risk on their end which includes a wide spectrum of options.

I'm not saying they NEED to do it, I'm just saying it's pretty clear that holding the event is feasible. Will it be 100% risk free? Not entirely (it will be remarkably safe for vaccinated people though).

I'm just pushing back because at some point we as a society need to remember the entire purpose of these vaccines is to get us back to a semblance of normalcy. Once you're fully vaccinated, normal because realistic.

 

I think the "vaccine passport" is the hope of FOBAB 2021 happening. The NFL seems to think full stadium will be happening in the fall, have hinted at requiring proof of vaccination for attending

 

He wasn't being flippant (but you can find instances of that elsewhere on this site!). He was answering your questions in a way that points out that society is more protected than it was 6 months ago. Maybe not protected enough for FOBAB; I agree that full-blown indoor FOBAB in 2021 probably isn't in the cards - as many have pointed out there's a lot of unknowns and upfront planning decisions that get made further in advance. And who knows what could be different with variants, etc.

The line of thought you have above was responsible and reasonable in 2020. I wish more people had that mentality last year. But it isn't July or November 2020 and it sounds like you haven't adjusted your thinking one iota based on what's been happening the past 4 months. That's your prerogative but I don't think it's selfish for wondering when it's OK to start doing some things again.

Another way to put it, I hope we don't let anti-vaxxers run our decision making for the foreseeable future.

 

I continue to think the main determinant whether it happens are Illinois and Chicago guidelines. COVID is creeping up a bit and there's talk of banning indoor dining. If that happens I see it as a major setback since it moves the phased opening approach backwards. As I wrote earlier Pritzker and Lightfoot have taken a very cautious and slow approach so far. If we're getting into June and July and things haven't opened up to 100% that leaves the FoBAB organizers with some very tough decisions.

In 2019 I got the FoBAB tickets in September and I think I got the notice "last chance to renew Imbibe before FoBAB" in August, so I would think they'd have to make decisions well before that.

 

They had previously announced that events like FoBAB could happen at 25% capacity plus anyone who is fully vaccinated. However, it is up to the venue/event to put the controls in place to figure out who is fully vaccinated. So its on ICBG/UIC/etc at this point to figure out how they want to proceed.

 

He that lives upon hope will die farting.