Trade Value Thread (Q4 2021)

It's a bit over cost, like 120. Have heard it's pretty bad

 

Yikes - I’ll have to try it then. I have two bottles, but paid a ton for them.

 

What does this mean, precisely. Not trying to be a jerk, but…like in absolute terms, you’ve heard it is objectively a bad beer? Or, like, for the cost it doesn’t hold a candle? Hard to be objective when it costs that much, so I get it, just curious since the untappd rating is 4.4. I’d at least expect it to be “good not great” at 4.4.

 

Ya, I'm not trying to be a jerk either, I've just heard that it's objectively not very good (and certainly not up to Anchorage/SP standards). It seems to be very polarizing for people on Untappd. I haven't had it, so my comment isn't my opinion, but just what other people are saying about it and the huge dip in secondary value. Also to be fair, a lot of people hype up these big bottles so the rating is probably inflated. Starry Noche b2 has a 4.57, but was honestly pretty bad too in my opinion.

 

Thanks, appreciate the feedback and clarification.

Yes, untappd certainly has to be parsed. Usually I start getting excited if I see a beer is in the 4.4-4.6 or above category, because it usually means there is some truth to it. Seems like anything 4.6-5 usually has some BS built into it by homers/scammers/resellers/member holders etc. And then with certain breweries you figure out how to refine this even more for your own taste based on prior experience. For example, for me for years Jackie Os was always one that ended up getting rated (on average) a bit high due to the homer/trader effect (except Cellar Cuvée 11 - that beer is amazing, and Iron furnace is great). I’ve heard others share that CW is that brewery for them.

 

@Luscious_Malfoy I didn't want to hijack the trade thread you posted in, so moving convo here. I don't think it matters if Samuel is available for 1-month no-limit. It has already been classified as a Hill "whale" and will demand a generous return for trading. Part of the value of Hill beers is that the brewery is not located in a metropolitan area, so even when there is no limit these beers are not easily accessible to large numbers of people. Second, Hill folks don't kill the value of their releases by undercutting each other to trade for whiskey like folks in St.Louis, Chicago, and other cities do.

Second, @MattOC asked a question about who sets the values of beer in the Side Project thread after Bubble Wrap was released (1-month ago). It really is not hard to predict the values of 95% of beers. Example, Samuel was never going to trade less than BBT, but had potential to go above. Just look at the last 2 Samuel releases and you have your answer. A little harder for new beers like Bubble Wrap, but there are still patterns. I would say hardcore traders will know the market value within 2-6 hours after a release & then 1-week after people have started trying the beer how the value will go.

The value is dictated by the brewery, previous trade value of their beers, whether it is a coveted style from that brewery, sale circumstances (i.e. unlimited vs 1pp), venue for sales (IP vs online), whether proxies are allowed or not, public vs member release, whether large portions of a regional population prefer whiskey > stout > saisons, population density around a brewery, whether something is released through Tavour, etc. Clearly in most cases trade value is set before people even know how the beer tastes, so then there is a week where people slowly try the beer and this is when a beer can skyrocket, tank, or hold steady. A perfect example is Starry b2, which was trading reasonably high after release and now people can't get rid of it at cost.

There are patterns too.

Weldwerks: Only had 1 beer ever trade above 1 VRU (Starry b1), most of their beers hover around 0.5-1 VRU.

Side Project: Stouts & Barleywines rarely trade below 1 VRU, but for special releases will generally go higher.

Hill Farmstead: the Hill whales that are generally wine-barrel aged will always be high priced and generally go up in value, unlike other breweries. Take Art b4 for example, which started out at 2-3 VRU and is now 5 VRU.

Toppling Goliath: their barrel aged stuff that is not KBBS generally goes between 1-1.5 VRU and KBBS is always 2-2.5 VRU.

Bottle Logic / Jackie O's: Unlikely to go above 0.5 VRU no matter how good their beers are because of trends from prior trades. Appervation and Fundamental Observation gonna always be 50-75 and probably the best deals in beer trading.

Cantillon / 3F: always gonna be 0.5 VRU higher when traded domestically vs international. 3F hasn't made a 1 VRU beer for years. Cantillon seasonal will almost always be less than 0.5 VRU. Also older lambic (10+ years) is always more valuable than young lambic.

There are exceptions to all the rules and things change with time and evolution of a brewery. If a beer is old and hard to get, hasn't traded in a while, or gets hot randomly it has potential to go up to stupid levels. Hill Farmstead Mimosa is a good example; the beer probably doesn't even taste good now, but is probably over 5 VRU because it's impossible to find. The funny thing about vintage stouts that aren't easy to find (ex. 2016 Handjee, SR71 b1, BBT 2017) is that they probably taste worse than their fresher version, but are more expensive to trade for because they are just more rare. At least some saisons/lambic get better with age. But, tickers are willing to overpay for the opportunity to tick these ancient relics and do so happily while driving the market higher.

Anyways, it's a funny thing this hobby that we all share. I started out my life as an economist before I pivoted, so I find the beer market and trade values to be extremely fascinating as a case study.

 

Solid points from start to finish. Just need to chime in that I'm a little amused that all of this market pontificating is coming from someone with a SP logo avatar lol. It's too perfect.

 

i agree with you @Affinity that there are plenty of variables in play when it comes to trade value. and i figured someone would chime in with the old “it’s in the middle of nowhere” bit.

i would say the main part of your explanation i find so interesting is the week or so after release time when beers either tank, hold or shoot up. seems like the vast majority of beers tend to fall (and maybe not tank, just fall a little) and it’s always fascinating to see which ones don’t. i suppose Samuel falls into this category. holding or going up if anything.

 

Consider the SP avatar as the beer version of the Sunshine law. At least you know where my bias lies. However, when giving advice to others I try to be as objective as possible.

 

Wasn't suggesting that you're biased, was just making a tiny joke about how it's so fitting because it always seems like it's St. Louis who tends to be the most concerned with perceived value of their beers (and specifically their ability to flip them for cash/bourbon), but obviously every locale has that cohort to some degree.

 

Isn't that everybody on Facebook?

 

This indirectly answers me. Wouldn't mind more feedback on coconut synposium

 

Phenomenal analysis top to bottom. Thanks so much for taking the time to type this out!

 

I have 3 BA Great Notions & wondering whether it can get VR? How is VR tasting these days? Thanks!

 

Goose Island Cthulhu 2016
DB Hunahpu 2016

 

Is there a question there?

 

Haha whoops. Just short-formatted the hell out of that.

I haven’t really seen what these go for lately. I recently acquired a 2016 Cthulhu and DB Huna.

 

Back in the day, the clybourne releases were pretty hot. Somewhere around 1/2-1 VRU when VR was actually a currency. Now adays it really depends on who is looking. It’s a right set of eyes type of a thing. Someone might take the plunge knowing nothing, but more than likely it will be someone that has known about it but never got a chance to try it. I think you’ll just have to work it out with them. I don’t know the value of anything anymore to try to compare it, but I guess if it were me, I might try to get something on the order of Rare15. I don’t think that is unreasonable if it has held up as well as the BA Dark Crusader.

 

Ok that’s a fair point. It’s crazy to think that 2016 whales are now possibly unknown to beer drinkers in 2021. The right set of eyes would be definitely necessary for something like Cthulhu.
Also, I only recently heard of VRUs but it makes sense based on how VR traded back when lol. We might need a newer, modern unit now

 

Well, one thing that made these so cool back when they were released was how good BCBS was relative to anything else out there. In 2016, and even 2017, BCBS was still way up there. Although I still think BCBS is better (when graded as a straight BA stout) than 95% of the stuff out there, it’s no longer as lauded as it used to be. Everything else has kind of fallen as well, with the exception of some OG whales or some recent releases.