NBS BIF #15 Hints and Hauls: Was it Over When the Canadians Bombed BIF #14? HELL NO!

Well, like @BBThunderbolt mentioned, the official rules don't preclude it, and I don't have records of every pairing. And I drink-and-BIF all the time, so my records are questionable.

So, to the best of my record-keeping, I didn't repeat anyone, but I'm almost certain that there is at least one repeat pairing if we go all the way back to BIF #1. A repeat pairing from BIF #14 is unlikely, but seeing as I screwed up the pairings last round, who knows?

 

I did that with my musical hints (was that last round?). I revealed my target way early, if you knew how to decode the clues. I literally spelled out his user name.

 

I have to thank @JayORear for sending me that bottle of PtE, too.

Another curious data point is that, as unlikely as it is for a beer to receive a perfect 5.0 from this group of reviewers, it's still 15% more likely than me, specifically, bestowing a 5.0. If you remove me from that group, that number jumps to 24% (it is 24% more likely that someone out of this group of BIFers, excluding myself, gives a 5.0 than I).

What's really shocking is that @BBThunderbolt has given out four 5.0s! That makes him more than 3 times as likely to give a 5.0 than I, even though he's a much stingier rater overall.

@superspak , despite having rated or reviewed over 9000 beers (!), has never given a 5.0. If you removed him from our list, we as a collective are 24% more likely to bestow a 5.0 - which looks as though it's the same bump from removing me from the group, but that's more or less a coincidence based on Ian and I having reviewed so many beers - the impact of pulling out 0/9771 from a set of 16/50203 is pretty much the same impact as pulling out 1/3612 out of a set of 16/50203. We are both so unlikely to give a 5.0 that the far greater impact is on the total number of reviews. Removing Terry from the subset, on the other hand, makes us as a collective 21% less likely to bestow a 5.0. (The numbers for @Rub_This_BBQ ? Why, I'm glad you asked! We are 16% less likely to bestow a 5.0 without his numbers included, as he has very little effect on the denominator (1.5% of the total reviews), but a pretty big impact on the numerator (6.25% of the perfect 5.0s) . Terry, by comparison, is 25% of the perfect 5.0s, but also a whopping 9% of the total reviews; I have the same 6.25% as Bill, but 7.2% of the total reviews. Ian has an astounding 19.5% of the total reviews!)

I could keep diving down statistical wormholes all day ....

 

Well, I'm not putting it in graphical form. That kind of effort would take some kind of nerd!

 

I'm going to go with a very pessimistic 16 ... but I don't know if run scoring is up during ST, or down.