Rightsizing the Hops Market

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by unlikelyspiderperson, Feb 26, 2023.

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  1. unlikelyspiderperson

    unlikelyspiderperson Grand Pooh-Bah (3,966) Mar 12, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    https://brewingindustryguide.com/rightsizing-the-hop-market/

    Serious over supply in the market (estimated at 35-40 million pounds in the US) is setting the stage for acreage reductions that may reach 30% in some varieties, including Citra and Mosaic.

    Sounds like the wild ride in hop variety growth over the last 15 years or so is really catching up with the industry as brewers and growers struggle to manage the supply/ demand dynamic amid fickle consumer trends and unprecedented novelty on the producer end.
     
  2. ramseye4

    ramseye4 Maven (1,392) May 14, 2010 Virginia

    McLovin was right the whole time
     
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  3. jesskidden

    jesskidden Grand Pooh-Bah (3,145) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
    Society Pooh-Bah Trader

    Yeah, the Hop market has always suffered from price and supply volatility. After Repeal (and, so during the New Deal) into the post-War era, hop growers' organization co-operated with the Dept. of Agriculture to set up Marketing Agreements.
    [​IMG]
    E. Clemens Horst, a large California hop grower (in the pre-Pro era, he was said to own the most hop acreage in the world), who was for such an agreement in 1938 noted in a letter to fellow growers:
     
    #3 jesskidden, Feb 27, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2023
  4. bubseymour

    bubseymour Grand Pooh-Bah (4,800) Oct 30, 2010 Maryland
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Interesting article. Demonstrates the complexities of the farming market and all of the various factors that cause price and supply fluctuations. No real black and white causes with many things even offsetting each other.
     
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  5. Harrison8

    Harrison8 Grand High Pooh-Bah (6,285) Dec 6, 2015 Missouri
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Wasn't there a complaints thread last year about how the hop yield was bad and this was an issue...?

    Found it. Replace some excess US hop varieties with European hop varieties? Is it that simple?
     
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  6. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,635) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    Growing hops has always been feast and famine.

    Several years back many were putting in hop fields here in Michigan. The reality of the market reduced the acreage from the 800+ acres down to 400 in 2022. Farmers found it wasn't the get rich scheme they incisions.
     
  7. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,635) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    Not that simple. European aroma varieties don't do well in the US environment. Differences in the climate, soils, molds and mildews all make it a challenge to grow them here. Terroir is a real thing for hops, the aroma hops varieties don't have the same character here.
     
  8. Mgh2001

    Mgh2001 Crusader (444) Dec 3, 2021
    Trader

    I wonder if it’s like the cannabis market. Over saturated with mediocre quality from people who went for size of farm v quality.
     
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  9. rodbeermunch

    rodbeermunch Grand Pooh-Bah (3,900) Sep 30, 2015 Nevada
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Usual supply/demand discussion missing from daily life these days found here. Cool cool cool. Transition.

    I'm on the fence about ordering some Vista hop rhizomes this week. Lows still in the teens for the next 10 day forecast, waiting for that to bump up to the 30s before I order.

    Apricot tree hasn't produced fruit in a few harvests. Prolly top that off and let the hops hopefully grow up a 10-12 foot "stump". (Left side of the ladder in the pic).

    Any Vista hop insight up in here (up in here)?


    [​IMG]
    (L to R) Chinook, Centennial, Nugget, Cascade during harvest.

    Not pictured: CTZ (in backyard)

    [​IMG]
    Summer Sunrise
     
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  10. unlikelyspiderperson

    unlikelyspiderperson Grand Pooh-Bah (3,966) Mar 12, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    The issue that hops face vs other commodities is that they take several years to come online as far as a harvestable yield. So you have to be responding to predictions several years out to be on cycle. I noticed this quote
    Obviously some growers were better at prognostication than others.

    Add to that the reality that many of the varieties we're familiar with now are only just reaching a production age where their agronomic qualities can be accurately described. El Dorado, for instance, was sighted as having its higher than expected yield to blame for its acreage reduction. And demand us subject to the same vagueries as brewers learn how to best use new aroma varieties.

    The level of complexity in the hops market is crazy though. I'm struggling to think of another commodity produced at that scale that has so many popular varieties, so much work going into novel variety production, such a broad and fickle consumer market, and such a long timeline from field prep to harvest.
     
  11. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,635) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    In the Yakima Valley they claim that they can get 80% of the full yield in the first year. That is right from YCH Hop and Brew School. That’s hop Citra and Mosaic could be ramped up so quickly.
     
  12. unlikelyspiderperson

    unlikelyspiderperson Grand Pooh-Bah (3,966) Mar 12, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Wow, that's impressive. Thanks for the update, I was clearly thinking in some outdated terms.
     
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  13. moodenba

    moodenba Pooh-Bah (2,502) Feb 2, 2015 New York
    Society Pooh-Bah

    Nothing is that simple. Hops are perennials and need time to reach maturity. Also hop cultivation is fairly specialized and that, along with market volatility, might discourage farmers. Euro hop varieties should do well in western OR and WA. Hops there were a major crop once, but have since been displaced. There remains the hop development efforts at OR State U.
     
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  14. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    Monocracy is also a quick producer of hops. From the article you linked in the other thread (with emphasis in bold by me):

    “Monocacy is super productive. The researchers say it was producing approximately two pounds per plant in the first year, dry weight. In fact, it was so robust that the group had a hard time feeding it into the processing machine.”

    I have a mature hop plant (about 10 years old) and that plant produces less than two pounds of hops.

    Cheers!
     
  15. unlikelyspiderperson

    unlikelyspiderperson Grand Pooh-Bah (3,966) Mar 12, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Yeah I suspect that Monocacy will fuel even more diversity in the hop market as it sounds like it has some very desirable agronomic qualities. I'm sure many breeders are interested in incorporating it in their projects.

    As for your hop yield, based on the pictures you've shared I suspect it could use some proper trellising, pruning, and probably some fertilizer :stuck_out_tongue: But that sounds like a lot of work and then you'd have to make an even bigger batch of wet hop ale and your buddy might balk at having to use a ladder!
     
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  16. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    The plant gets fertilized.

    Maybe the yield would increase with trellising but regardless Monocracy produces high yields very quickly, not need for multiple years to obtain productivity.

    Cheers!
     
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  17. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,635) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    It is about 3 years just about everywhere else. The fertile volcanic soil, drip irrigation, loads of sun and desert climate all result in the perfect environment fo hops.
     
  18. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,635) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    At a hop farm in WA we walked the experimental field looking at new hops and doing hop rubs. One plant that has a nice aroma wasn't going any farther due to anlarge ball of cones at the top. The guide said that would jam the picking machine. They like a uniform distribution of cones along the plant.

    Monocacy sounds so intriguing, hop that jaming the pickers isn't the. Achilles heal.
     
  19. unlikelyspiderperson

    unlikelyspiderperson Grand Pooh-Bah (3,966) Mar 12, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Yeah that's the information I had in mind. It's no wonder that valley dominates global hops production.

    In my experience, trellising and pruning make a big difference in yield.
     
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  20. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    Jeff, we just have to get those Mechanical Engineers to do a better job here!?!:wink:

    Cheers!
     
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