Summerfest Lookout Thread (2023)

It was mid-80s today in Boston!

But seriously, Sierra Nevada has openly said their releases are quarterly, not seasonal.

Summerfest is April, May, June. Oktoberfest is July, August, September. Celebration is October, November…well you get the point.

And given how they’re locked into a certain time frame due to the hop harvest for Celebration, this makes sense. I believe that’s their best selling seasonal too. Also makes sense they’d cater to that beer.

 

Logistically that wouldn't work for them. They'll need to start using that space for Oktoberfest, and subsequently Celebration Ale, which as I said above is at the mercy of the hop harvest.

More importantly for breweries, it's stiff competition out there. Sam Adams Summer Ale was released last month (has been for a number of years now, at least as far back as I can remember).

Summer beers are coming out already, they're not going to wait until June. I completely understand what you're saying, but that's the way of the beer business.

 

Regarding seasonal creep...etc., here's a long, but informative, post from @BillManley from a few years back...

You have to take in to consideration how commercial breweries (especially larger commercial breweries) operate.
Brewers build forecasts. Those forecasts are an estimate of how much of any one beer is going to be brewed at any given time. Forecasting is a tricky thing, and is part science and part art. Analysts look at previous year's sales, that year versus the year prior, when the beer will ship, if there are any sales mandates (say, Buffalo Wild Wings wants to run a $2 special on beer X for two months) and also any new markets. By looking at reams of data they then make a call to say: We are going to sell X amount of this beer within the given timeframe.
From that number prediction, brewers will then purchase materials (brewing ingredients, bottles, cans, labels, cartons...etc.) Often, the forecasts are made months (sometimes 6 months) before the beer will be released.
From the minute beer X is brewed, packaged, and begins shipping, sales analysts are watching shipments (beer going to distributors) Depletions (beer leaving distributors going out to accounts) and estimating a daily/weekly/monthly rate of sale.
I mentioned above, forecasts are made months early. If at the last minute, a big account...say, Publix in Florida wants to run an ad selling 12-packs for $10.99... that estimate rate of sale may as much as triple in that market for that period of time.
For example: a spring seasonal lager is planned for April-june (12 weeks) and our analysts forecast estimates we'll sell 10,000Bbls. (13,700 cases) Watching shipments, we see that we've shipped 6,000Bbls 4 weeks into the 12 week campaign. What do we do? We can: A.) Brew more. B.) stop selling beer and run out at retail. C.)Move up the next seasonal and have that one a little longer.
Brewers try not too keep too much excess brewing material on-hand at any given time. By materials I don't mean recipe ingredients...typically those are easy-ish to get (unless there is something very scarce like a unique hop or something.) Usually the limiting factor is packaging materials. Cans take 12-weeks to produce. Can we get more if we need them? Chip board right now is very tight. Vendors don't keep a lot on hand. If you don't have a chip board order in place early, you might be out-of-luck)
Simply not making more is also problematic, especially when it comes to grocery. Grocery operates on such a slim margin, that they have to monetize as much of the store as possible. If grocery runs out of a SKU for too long, they simply replace it. There's no holding it for you, until you're ready. Again, not a good option.
Moving up a seasonal. In any campaign, there is a point of "go or no-go" That balance point where the brewer decides whether it makes sense to add volume (if possible) cut volume (if necessary) or adjust shipping schedules for future releases. If a lager has, say, a 21-28 day brew, that time will be earlier, than a simple ale with a 10-14 day turn. At some point, it makes more sense, to move the brewing of the new one up to account for the gap in production.
Using the example above: My spring lager is supposed to go: April 1-June 30 Which means it brews in February, for shipping the second week in March for placement at retail by April 1. The next seasonal supposed to be out on July 1. Which means the scheduled brewing would begin early May for shipping on June 15th. About halfway through the previous campaign. If the rate of sale and shipments are trending higher than average at or around that halfway point, there is some wiggle room to adjust a brew by a few weeks up-or-down to accommodate for the market dynamics.
Ultimately, the brewing schedules have to be fluid enough to adjust if necessary, and rigid enough to create buffers at the begging and end of each campaign and be ready at any time to schedule a brew. At Sierra, weekly brew and pack schedules adjusted up to 8 times in any given week. At Surly, we average 4 adjustments per week. Head brewers gets all the glory, but usually, it's production planners and/or analysts who REALLY keep breweries up-and-running.