2023 will be a tough year for craft breweries?

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by JackHorzempa, Jun 12, 2023.

?

Have you been buying more economically priced beers this year?

  1. Yes

    56 vote(s)
    42.4%
  2. No

    76 vote(s)
    57.6%
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  1. ramseye4

    ramseye4 Maven (1,392) May 14, 2010 Virginia

    20 dollars for a four pack?? Is that a normal price for it?( they don’t sell it where I am)

    If I were trying for the first time I’d probably pay that based off it’s reputation. But having had it before if it were distributed near me there’s no way Id buy it more than once every couple of years

    Another trend I can’t stand is the artificially flavored juice “ipas” that I’ve had the misfortune of trying. Not the ones that use hops to impart a juicy palate, but beer that they clearly added artificial juice flavors to. Hardywood sheep mullet and Southern Tier juice Jolt come to mind. They’re freakin awful
     
    #21 ramseye4, Jun 12, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2023
  2. MadMadMike

    MadMadMike Grand Pooh-Bah (3,555) Dec 11, 2020 France
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I voted No.
    I take what I take because I want what I want.
     
  3. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    It is the "normal" price in my area (Philly area). You can get it for $13 if you are willing to travel to the brewery:

    https://shop.alchemistbeer.com/in-person-curbside-pickup

    Just a situation of hype/limited distribution plus distribution costs I suppose!?!

    Cheers!

    P.S. Heady Topper is indeed a very tasty beer but I suppose the 20 bucks aspect could be debated.
     
  4. Celtics76

    Celtics76 Pooh-Bah (1,781) Sep 5, 2011 Rhode Island
    Pooh-Bah

    For a variety of reasons, local craft beer has priced me out, at least for this year. My mortgage went up (property tax and insurance increases), and I'm still recovering from a big family Disney trip last December. Expensive craft beer is one of the "luxury" items that I've decided to cut back on.

    I have to say it hasn't been too bad. I've been revisiting classics like SN Pale Ale, drinking more lagers (Pilsner Urquell is a favorite), and mixing in bourbon/gin. I've gone from spending $100-$120 monthly to around $35-$40. It's turned out to be a welcome break from the "haze craze" etc. and overall I think I'm getting more enjoyment out of the hobby.
     
  5. retention_

    retention_ Devotee (313) Jan 8, 2022 North Carolina

    I voted no but I have definitely been more cost-conscious this year. I haven't been drinking more AALs or related cheap beers because I don't like those beers aside from the occasional Yeungling. However I have drank far less draft beer this year due to the ever increasing cost, which means fewer trips to craft beer bars, shops and breweries than in the past. I also have been buying more six-packs and sticking with the beers I already know and like rather than picking up a couple of singles of new beers or making a mixed 6-pack. I think the last time I got a mixed 6-pack it was like $24 or something which makes it too expensive to really experiment with different beers regularly.
     
  6. dennisthreeninefiveone

    dennisthreeninefiveone Pundit (980) Aug 11, 2020 New Jersey
    Trader

    I'm buying less beer than i used to as I get older but not less expensive. One can still get a 6 pack of SNPA for 11/12 dollars in North NJ.
     
  7. LeRose

    LeRose Grand Pooh-Bah (4,423) Nov 24, 2011 Massachusetts
    BA4LYFE Society Pooh-Bah Trader

    Lots of talk about the secondary packaging format (4, 6, 12 pack and cases) and how that's going to look. It's pretty much just math, and while I haven't paid much attention to how my company prices and decides on things like this, it has to come down to the P&L and how a brewery can compete/market/sell. So sure - a $24 four pack is a "yikes", but that's a $72 twelve, etc. A $20 350 ml Allagash wild ale is a head turner...an $80 fourpack...

    And there's shopping habits that differ tremendously. We haven't bought anything more than a four pack in years. In fact, we're typically hunting singles when we're shopping. Not really for ticking purposes, but it just makes sense with how we drink. The missus and I share a handful of favorites, but do have different tastes. She likes her fruity stuff, I'm happy with a nice pilsner. So we buy a four pack - I'm usually the guinea pig, and she'll have a taster to decide. So best case we both like it and it gets drunk. Second best, I have three beers I like leftover that I might remember, and worst case we got three leftovers nobody wants. We stick with singles except for a few mutual favorites and support the stores that either have a good selection or allow you to break up a pack.

    Now - a bit more to the topic. Because of the way we shop, we don't really notice the cost of an individual beer (or 4, 6, 12, 24 pack) since we don't shop that way and the stores that allow mix your own usually give you a modest discount - no idea why since it has to be a pain in the ass dealing with 3-packs that used to be 4-packs. I guess if you add it up, we probably do spend more that way, but neither of us is much interested in drinking the same beer all the time, even our favorites.

    I am in the camp mentioned upthread - there's going to be a lot of closures and/or mergers. And I think in some ways that will be healthy in the long run. There's too many breweries all essentially doing the same thing. Maybe in an urban setting, the "neighborhood" brewery works out. In my rural setting - I'll go to a well-maintained store where I can have a much greater choice. I'll save my brewery visits for destinations and places I really want to check out first hand.
     
  8. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    To springboard off what Larry (@LeRose) posted in post #10: “home brew again”.

    If you like to drink expensive beers such as Belgian Trappist/Abbey beers it is very cost effective to homebrew those beers (see below) and those beers hold up very well over time so if you are not a high volume beer drinker you can enjoy those beers over several years.

    "Save Money!
    Some beer types can be very expensive to purchase at beer retailers. I am a fan of Belgian beer styles like Dubbel, Tripel, Quad, Saison, Belgian Pale Ale, etc. but the Belgian brewed versions (and US craft brewed too) are quite pricey. As one example, Chimay Red (a Dubbel) costs over $150.00 for a case (24 bottles) at my local Retail Beer Distributor. This price is more than I am willing to pay. A typical batch of homebrew is 5 gallons (i.e., about two cases) and I can produce a batch of Dubbel for an ingredient cost significantly less than the $300.00 it would cost me to buy two cases. Twice a year I homebrew a batch of Dubbel, and while it is not intended to specifically be a clone of Chimay Red it is a comparable beer. The ingredient costs of this batch, both for an all grain version or an extract (and specialty grains) version are:
    • All grain Dubbel: $45.00
    • Extract (and specialty grain) Dubbel: $56.00
    The prices quoted above are for the case of just buying the ingredients for a given batch. I usually buy some ingredients in bulk (e.g., malt, malt extract, hops) so my costs are even lower than those indicated above.

    It does not take a degree in accounting/finance to see that producing two cases of Dubbel for around 50 bucks is a significant saving from buying two cases at a beer retailer.

    A number of years ago my buddy Chuck invited me and my wife to a party at his shore house in Ocean City, NJ. I brought a case of mixed homebrewed beers and one of the beers was my homebrewed Dubbel. A friend Pat enquired about the Dubbel. I asked her if she liked Chimay Red and she enthusiastically said “yes”. I told her that my homebrewed Dubbel was better than Chimay. She looked at me like I was a used car salesman. As I poured her a Dubbel into a glass I told her that if she didn’t like the beer, she could just bring it back and I would be happy to drink it. A couple of minutes later I heard through the crowd “Jack! Jack!” and I recognized her voice. She ran up to me with a big smile on her face and loudly exclaimed “It is better than Chimay!”. I now half-jokingly refer to my homebrewed Dubbel using the brand name “Better than Chimay”.

    In past articles I discussed how to homebrew a Quad, Saison, and an Orval type beer:

    https://www.morebeer.com/articles/Belgian_Quad

    https://www.morebeer.com/articles/Saison_Beer

    https://www.morebeer.com/articles/Brettanomyces

    https://www.morebeer.com/articles/Why_Homebrew_Beer

    Cheers!
     
  9. Giantspace

    Giantspace Grand Pooh-Bah (3,043) Dec 22, 2011 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah

    I try to stay at $1 a beer, 12 or 16oz I don’t care. It’s hard and I no longer am able to pull this off. I would guess I am at $1.35 a serving. This includes cases of High Life and a few local 4 packs twice a month.
    As long as I can keep getting deals like this I think I’m ok. I wish I was able to get SN 12 packs for $14-16 like many others post here but I can’t even come close w/o a sale or when I am in DE.

    I know it’s actually less to buy 2 twelve packs but I’m not arguing over a penny.

    Enjoy

    [​IMG]
     
  10. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    Me too! Sierra Nevada 12-packs are notably more expensive in our area. :grimacing:

    Cheers!
     
  11. defunksta

    defunksta Grand Pooh-Bah (4,164) Jan 18, 2019 Wisconsin
    Society Pooh-Bah Trader

    I think "no" because relatively speaking craft beer is still fairly reasonably priced. A small uptick in the price for a few dollars shouldn't cause you to abandon everything and settle for bad beer. Cheap and bad beer are not worth drinking.
    The main thing is that quality does not correlate with price. It depends on the style a bit, but many World-Class and Outstanding beers still sitting on the shelves at reasonable prices while a lot of expensive one-offs are overpriced and not worth revisiting. If you're buying craft beer over macro-lagers you're already prioritizing taste and quality over price so a small bump in price is less likely going to affect you. Maybe in the future, but so far I haven't seen the big inflationary and economic changes impact the craft beer industry. It's probably coming though.
     
  12. AlfromPA

    AlfromPA Zealot (613) Dec 9, 2021 Colorado

    I have to say I develop consumer's fatigue with what has been passing for "craft beer" lately--juicy IPAs, more or even more hoppy IPAs, all the subtle gradations of IPAness--come on. In the old days I loved craft-ish Belgian imports (Trappists, Rodenbach, Duchesse, Delirium, various Gueuze styles)--but they seem pretty rare in shops nowadays--even the nicer British imports aren't that common. When you can't find what you like, and the endless variations of the same start to bore you, you end up buying less.

    So I don't mind paying a good bit more for a beer I really like, if I can find it, but the middle-ish craft beers just bore me. So I'm happy to pay less for beers that seem just as good as the more mainstream craft offerings--e.g., some of the Trader Joe's beers, which are nice for just easy drinking (Stockyard Stout, Trader Jose's Dark, Josephsbrau Hefeweizen, etc.).
     
  13. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    Lots of those beers at my local Wegman's supermarket.
    Well, that is a 'good thing' since those beers at my local Wegman's supermarket are priced quite highly.

    I watched the latest What's Brewing episode yesterday and Glen Macnow was visiting Don Russell (aka Joe Sixpack) in northern France and Don mentioned how cheap the Belgian beers are there (I think he said a bit over 1 Euro for Chimay) and that he was actually getting tired of drinking these beers. :flushed:

    Cheers!
     
  14. Bluerabbitbell

    Bluerabbitbell Pooh-Bah (2,378) Nov 1, 2011 Pennsylvania
    BA4LYFE Society Pooh-Bah Trader

    I voted no. My wife and i are, however, buying less, while focusing on higher quality, harder to find selections.
     
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  15. AlfromPA

    AlfromPA Zealot (613) Dec 9, 2021 Colorado

    Sadly, I don't see many Belgians here in Denver. The old KoP Wegman's had a great selection in comparison to what's on the shelves here.
     
  16. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Grand Pooh-Bah (3,375) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Society Pooh-Bah

    I didn't realize you are now in Denver (your avatar lists Pennsylvania).

    Yes, the KoP Wegman's has a great selection of Belgian beers. You just need a fat piggybank to be able to purchase them. I personally just look at them.

    Cheers!
     
  17. Orca

    Orca Grand Pooh-Bah (4,710) Sep 18, 2010 Washington
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Most of them are in Belgium.
    [​IMG]

    Seriously though … I don’t buy much beer these days as I’m on a hardcore mission to drink down my cellar—but I don’t really pay attention to price. There’s a small handful of bottles I used to buy that I don’t anymore because they’ve almost tripled in price (just like real estate around here), but for the most part I don’t even look at the price. Just like eating out these days, if you pay too much attention to prices it kind of ruins the experience.
     
    #37 Orca, Jun 13, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2023
  18. Taylor_Maierhofer1996

    Taylor_Maierhofer1996 Savant (1,068) Jun 30, 2021 Illinois
    Society Trader

    I fall in the category of it pisses me off when I use to be able to buy a 6 pack of 12oz bottles for $9.99 then the brewery switches that same beer for a 4 pack of pints for $14.99. It’s bullshit.
     
  19. unlikelyspiderperson

    unlikelyspiderperson Grand Pooh-Bah (3,966) Mar 12, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I've been wondering how long these expensive 4 packs breweries can keep going for years now, but around me it seems like more keep coming into the market. Locally, most places choose to put them on the shelves as singles (2.99-5.89 per can roughly), so I suppose that's how buyers/ retailers in my area have chosen to deal with it. Lots more stovepipe singles as well.

    I don't really see there being a major change to the beer market unless there's a major change in the macro economic situation (certainly a possibility), but I don't see any evidence in the areas I visit that the apparent taste for what I think of as expensive beer is drying up
     
  20. beer_beer

    beer_beer Pooh-Bah (2,306) Feb 13, 2018 Finland
    Society Pooh-Bah

    I voted yes. When ordering beer I have them arranged by price. On the NA front this is manageable, with say 100 different available at my best supermarket. I'm not letting the price dictate, but don't want to miss the cheap and good ones. Some more costly beers can naturally blend in, special treats, but think I'm keeping the average beer cost down a bit.

    Buying only singles by the way, usually one, sometimes two.
     
    #40 beer_beer, Jun 13, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2023
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