Your Biggest Wrong Or Right Beer Predictions From Past

Without derailing Dave's thread too much more, I'll just note that I believe that the straight line model is too simple and not really how I think of these things. And with blurry lines and all, there still should be a defining feature at the heart of every category.

The reason I'm very hesitant to use appearance is that: a) it's more of a byproduct of the process and b) it's a dangerous road training customers to place value on cloudiness without understanding how and why it's there. Unfortunately the term hazy has indeed taken root. And cloudiness in and of itself has become a virtue among a certain set.

This is leading to the marketing of a broader range of styles in essentially an unfinished and unpalatable state, just because they can easily be sold for $4 a can. I'm pretty discriminating and I've run across some. And who didn't see that coming ? So here's the prediction: this is just the beginning, and it'll be years before the pendulum swings the other way. Enjoy all the crap!

 

Blind Tiger food is average tasting and not too expensive these days. Their beers are solid and very affordable. A flight of 4 beers is $4.

 

That BeerAdvocate's ratings system would change again. Predicted in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017.

I'll uphold it in 2018.

 

My prediction is that barrel aged ipas will take a step back. (not that they're super prominent anyway...) I don't understand them personally. Founders Doom was pretty much a failure IMHO. I admittedly havent tried many more because of that beer. Ipas are supposed to be bright and hoppy, even dank or juicy. But aging them in a barrel seems to be counterproductive to me. Especially when everyone is crazed over ultra fresh ones.

 

When I first tasted ruination years ago, I predicted that this bitter stuff would never appeal to the mass market even though I liked it very much and it started my obsession with beer. Boy was I wrong. I also predicted in a thread or two around here that the lager and the pilsner would again become great! And they have. =)

 

I agree that craft beer has brought into focus the idea of local food and beer. AND because it's beer somehow that translates into french fries and turnip greens not just snooty caviar and pate like with wine. I enjoy food and beer pairing so much you would laugh to know how much. Pairing beer with everyday food has become my greatest obsession !

 

I predict more barrel aging actually. Even distinguishing from fermented in wood barrel to fermetted in a steel tank. I personally have seen plenty of barrel aged beer and passed most of it by because the barrel can be trickier than the brewer would like to admit. I have seen saison aged in white wine barrel, baltic porter aged in pinot noir barrel and all kinds of barrels from whiskey to gin. I think that the heavier beers are being put to the test lately and that is because of a general increase in knowledge about beer. I agree with I think jack or tongorad who said that haze for it's own sake is not wrong but I also think that beer has gone off the rails in trying to chemically identify every combination. The words naturtrub should never be lost and dry hopping should never be the reason to rate a beer more highly than another in the style made without that technique. I also agree with roguer that heady was bitter. Less bitter than some but bitter nonetheless.

 

Not my prediction, but I'm still waiting for the craft beer bubble to burst...

 

Was going to say pretty much the same thing. It’s certainly gotten better, but with all the brewer-swapping going on, I really thought at this point we’d be past the ‘growing pains’ phase of new breweries.

Like I said, it’s gotten a lot better, but brewers of all experience levels need to swallow their pride and open the dump valve when the beer doesn’t work out. Especially at new breweries. Their reputations are at stake!

 

I predicted in 2016 that in 2017 a beer would be released in limited quantities that people would go all FOMO over.

Boy, did I hit that one out of the park!!!!

I predict the same thing for 2018 BTW, come back and check in 2019 to see if Im right!!!

 

There's a tremendous "I can do it better myself, 'cause I homebrew" mentality with a LOT of new brewery owners. That attitude is just absolutely ridiculous.

Agreed. That's assuming that all brewers can tell when a beer isn't good enough to represent their brewery. Would like to think that people understand what's good and what's not, but that just isn't the case.

 

I think I’ve been right more than I’ve been wrong. But that’s not what this thread is about.

I predicted more of the old heads in craft beer, in the face of increasing competition, would sell. I predicted New Belgium among others. They kind of went in the opposite direction with the Magnolia thing.
Never would have predicted Anchor, although it makes sense.

I also predicted, that much like lagers, with their low-alcohol and subtle complexity, are being increasingly appreciated, British pub ales, especially casks beer, would experience a resurgence In popularity. Sadly, this doesn’t seem to be the case at all.

My predictions:

Positive:

• Craft beer will continue to grow, but mostly pub, and minimum distro breweries. Especially in small towns and previous beer deserts.
• An unknown foreign brewer will skyrocket to fame and hype with a, or several, American style beers that rank with the best in the States.

Negative:

• We will lose 2-5 of the BA top 50 to buyout.
• A accident (industrial, DUI, etc.) or high profile lawsuit will draw widespread attention to one of craft beer’s ‘wild west’ aspects: coffee, hemp, etc additions; brewery drug culture; listed ABV variation.
• An important person at a household name brewery will be accused of sexual assault and be forced to step down. I’m actually surprised this hasn’t happened already, sadly.

Neutral:

• One of the large beer distributors (Reyes probably) will make a major acquisition and further increase the interesting nature of the power struggle between big beer and big distro.
• Some kind of shakeup is coming from Sam Adams. Not sure what, but they will look different at the end of 2018 than they do now.

 

Do you remember super elastic bubble plastic. I think the craft beer bubble is like that.

 

Even having brewed on a 1 BBL system at home, the challenges of commercial brewing are seriously worlds apart from what you face on a homebrew scale.

 

I have a sad about this as well. Luckily my "local" has a top notch cask ale program. Wish it were all Real Ale, but I'll take what I can get.

Agreed.

Can't see this happening, but anything's possible. Reason? The growth and popularity of local breweries. The days of the likes of Brewdog, Mikkeller, Baladin, and Kiuchi turning US beer on its ear are long gone, IMO.

If you mean straight buyout, I'd agree. If you mean investment in, I'd say your numbers are low. WAY low. Truthfully, though, the days of brewery buyouts is drawing to a close. Most of the companies looking to buy breweries have already done so. ABI has even said that it has bought enough and simply looks to expand the ones that it has in its portfolio.

Maybe, but unless it involves a big brewing celebrity, I can't see it making many waves. The general public doesn't care about the stuff that happens at breweries.

Can't see this happening either. Reason? Most of the high profile people that were accused were either vying for political office or had contractual disputes with their employers/companies. A situation like this is unlikely to happen in craft beer unless there'd be a brewery with multiple owners who disagreed on the sale of the company, like Dick Cantwell and Elysian.

 

I wish more new brewers understood that. It's not just "scaling things up". It's understanding your (new) equipment and how your yeast will respond to being subject to a vastly different environment than they are subject to on a homebrew scale.

 

That is one major aspect if it. Another that takes a ton of thought and energy is time constraints. How to develop a viable production strategy that maximizes tank capacity while maintaining the best possible health of your yeast (keep in mind, brewing a 15 vs a 20 vs a 40 BBL batch requires even more scaling). How to keep the freshest ingredients possible on hand...and the freshest possible beer in the kegs/people's glasses (any Kellerbier that has been kegged or, especially, bottled, is going to taste different than their gravity-served counterparts in Germany; that is just a fact) while dealing with things completely out of your hands like distributor and/or retailer handling. How to maintain consistency after you have gotten things somewhat dialed in but demand has grown so fast that you have to make bigger batches...or even get new tanks in rotation. So many things... Very easy for a homebrewer to think they can do everything better when they have never faced such challenges (or if they did, had the luxury of letting the non-ideal beer sit or go down the drain).

 

Ahh . . . logistics.

 

The first time I stopped at a small brewer maybe 3-4 years ago that did 32oz Crowlers to go, I thought "wow this will most likely kill the annoying 64oz Growler fill/format". I think I was somewhat right on that prediction, but where my Nostradamus prediction failed was that many of the small breweries that initially converted to Crowlers have quickly moved on to the 16oz canning format to be sold on site. Didn't really predict that at all.

 

Yeah . . . that format has exploded. Add the higher price point on them as compared to growlers/crowlers and breweries are making a tidy profit.