Your Biggest Wrong Or Right Beer Predictions From Past

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by cavedave, Jan 3, 2018.

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  1. zid

    zid Meyvn (1,190) Feb 15, 2010 New York
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    This was probably a few years back, but I remember posting here about how bars (in our area) were getting rid of their beer engines because serving cask wasn't proving to be economically worth it for them. Another person made a post about how cask ale in his area of the US was drawing in crowds. Really? I pressed for more info and he was referring to cask Zombie Dust with extra added hops. Details matter. :rolling_eyes:
     
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  2. rozzom

    rozzom Champion (878) Jan 22, 2011 New York
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    Hahah - yeah four times out of five when cask comes up it reminds me of the Jon Stewart scene in Half Baked

    Yeah man, but have you ever tried Zombie Dust, oooooonnnnn cask (with mango juice and more hops added)?

    Yeah sorry mate we're not talking about the same thing
     
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  3. zid

    zid Meyvn (1,190) Feb 15, 2010 New York
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    You've been confining yourself to the regional forum too much these days.
     
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  4. woodychandler

    woodychandler Poo-Bah (11,246) Apr 9, 2004 Pennsylvania
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    Wotta softball of a Q for me!

    I predicted that craft beer in CANs were the coming wave of the future. I still CAN't believe how quickly the CANcept took 'hold, however! Now, we are seeing sours & tarts in CANs, something that was to be the final frontier. Victory BC beers are now in CANs as Bill Covaleski eats his words. I am elated by the craft CAN beer revolution, but now it is obvious that I will never CANplete The CANQuest (tm): my stated goal of drinking & reviewing EVERY CANned beer in existence.
     
  5. EvenMoreJesus

    EvenMoreJesus Champion (886) Jun 8, 2017 Pennsylvania
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    That sentence just made me sad and angry at the same time. Like a driver that just hit my dog with his car and didn't stop to see if he was OK.
     
  6. gibgink

    gibgink Champion (871) Oct 27, 2014 Missouri
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    I want to say I've only made one prediction, but it might be a while before I can say it came true. My prediction is that there will be a shift in how breweries operate. Breweries can focus on quality, produce great beer with little or no distribution and still be successful financially.
     
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  7. EvenMoreJesus

    EvenMoreJesus Champion (886) Jun 8, 2017 Pennsylvania
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    Your prediction for 2018 sounds more like a prediction for 2010.
     
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  8. gibgink

    gibgink Champion (871) Oct 27, 2014 Missouri
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    I haven't been in the game since 2010, but what I've seen since 2014 is a lot of craft working on expansion into new markets, which I personally think is not the way to go. There have been some breweries as of late that are not too concerned with expansion, and I think that trend will increase.
     
  9. EvenMoreJesus

    EvenMoreJesus Champion (886) Jun 8, 2017 Pennsylvania
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    So, you are more so referencing larger production breweries as opposed to local breweries that center their sales around their taprooms?
     
  10. Leebo

    Leebo Initiate (192) Feb 7, 2013 Massachusetts

    But will this international get on my shelf at 1-7 days after canning?
     
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  11. JohnnyChicago

    JohnnyChicago Champion (808) Sep 3, 2010 Illinois

    Never said it had to be an IPA :wink:
     
  12. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (4,602) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
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    Michael, there is some good news here. Yards a couple of months ago moved into a new, larger location. They will be capable of brewing more beer.

    At a German Beer Festival in Philly last year I spoke to a couple of Yards guys (a brewer and a sales person). I asked them if once they move into their larger brewery would they be expanding distribution. The brewer just shrugged his shoulders and the sales person stated: we can't keep up with demand in our current distribution area.

    I suppose we will have to wait and see here.

    Cheers!
     
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  13. Domingo

    Domingo Poo-Bah (2,686) Apr 23, 2005 Colorado
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    Hogshead in Denver (http://www.hogsheadbrewery.com/) makes a big deal out of their cask offerings and they DO have a pretty large dedicated audience as a result. However they're mostly the only place doing it, and they're doing it at an extremely high level. The Falling Rock has 2 engines where they serve only Hogshead gravity beers, but most other places only carry their CO2 stuff. Most other places only have firkins for weekly experiments. I think we only have one other place that takes it seriously (http://www.pintspub.com/pints-pub-brewed-artisan-beer.html) and their quality is up and down varying on the age of the cask. They don't move their stuff like Hogshead does. Hell, Hogshead has probably hurt their business a lot since the beers are better.
    Either way, I'd say cask beer has a small but dedicated audience that is probably 95% sophisticated beer lovers. I don't see that kind of thing pulling crowds outside of a few niche spots.
     
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  14. EvenMoreJesus

    EvenMoreJesus Champion (886) Jun 8, 2017 Pennsylvania
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    I'd agree. Don't know a lot of British ex-pats that are what I'd call sophisticated, but I get your drift.
     
  15. bubseymour

    bubseymour Poo-Bah (2,995) Oct 30, 2010 Maryland
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    My wrong prediction from a few years ago that still hasn't seen a reality as of 2017: The craft beer bubble will burst and the survivors will be the top-shelf brewers (the HFs, Tree House's, TG's etc) and the brewers that create a somewhat tasty sessionable beer for only $1 a sixer above BMC products. Maybe that is In-Bev's eventual strategy. NG Spotted Cow is probably the closest to that, but I really am not aware of any brewers amongst the 5000+ brewers in the US going that route with one of their beers (close 2nd perhaps being the All Day IPA 15 packs and SNPAs but they are still several dollars more than BMC products).
     
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  16. bubseymour

    bubseymour Poo-Bah (2,995) Oct 30, 2010 Maryland
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    So is it a reailty the Oregon craft beer bubble has burst? If so, this could be the official wakeup call for the rest of America, since Oregon is about 5-15 years ahead in craft beer scene/culture from most of the other states in the US (depending on the state) and could be a true foreshadowing of things to come in the near future.
     
  17. shelby415

    shelby415 Savant (936) Oct 10, 2011 Oregon
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    I don't know about the craft beer bubble, per se - I think craft continues to command a large slice of packaged beer sales and tap lines - but the brewery bubble I mentioned does seem to be bursting. There have been years within the past decade when it seemed like the big cities - Portland and Bend - could accommodate an endless number of new brewery openings. This past year has seen more closures in Portland (and a few in other places) than I can remember in any other year, and not just piss-poor breweries and nanos either, but places that were well-liked and had good beer.

    It's hard to say if this is a harbinger of bad beer news to come. Obviously they all closed for their own unique reasons and I feel like Portland, especially, was oversaturated in the first place and that this was inevitable.
     
  18. surfcaster

    surfcaster Zealot (566) Apr 20, 2013 North Carolina
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    You is talkin' over my head.:flushed:

    On my simplistic level, this is true but makes me sad.

    Too subtle, too short of a half life.
     
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  19. dgmirelli

    dgmirelli Aspirant (271) Mar 21, 2015 New York


    agree on everything except the survival of sub-par beer and brewers, if you drink craft your palate develops quickly.....with US close to saturation point mediocre craft beer will FOLD
     
  20. dgmirelli

    dgmirelli Aspirant (271) Mar 21, 2015 New York


    or $18-22 for a Growler....which I routinely do in order to secure FRESH beer
     
  21. dgmirelli

    dgmirelli Aspirant (271) Mar 21, 2015 New York


    or the familiarity of the 32oz Growler....
     
  22. surfcaster

    surfcaster Zealot (566) Apr 20, 2013 North Carolina
    Trader

    Right: Sierra Nevada will remain strong and relevant and maintain appeal to the spectrum of beer drinkers

    Wrong: the fruit juice beer craze would wane--boy was that really wrong

    and @TongoRad, I agree, a Heady or (or for me a SOS) are not fruit juice beers.
     
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  23. utopiajane

    utopiajane Poo-Bah (2,556) Jun 11, 2013 New York


    You forgot librarian.
     
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  24. utopiajane

    utopiajane Poo-Bah (2,556) Jun 11, 2013 New York

    Woody you can put my beer in a CAN please. CAN you dig it. Yes I CAN. Cans for the CANtankerous CANcise, CANgenital not CANgentsial CANsumers of too much beer.
     
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  25. cavedave

    cavedave Poo-Bah (2,965) Mar 12, 2009 New York
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    "CANcel my subscription to the Resurrection..."
     
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  26. woodychandler

    woodychandler Poo-Bah (11,246) Apr 9, 2004 Pennsylvania
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    "Why all caps?" you may & CAN ask. Because CANs are just THAT important!
     
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  27. cjgiant

    cjgiant Poo-Bah (5,221) Jul 13, 2013 District of Columbia
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    Failed prediction: I'd get into home brewing and eventually produce beers better than what I could get on the shelf.

    Ha! I learned early making drinkable beer is different than making good beer - especially without better equipment.

    Then there's another mild surprise that is also part of the reason: more and more solid beers kept being produced by more and more brewers and available for purchase and not that much more expensive than my own brewed beers.
     
  28. jesskidden

    jesskidden Poo-Bah (2,048) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
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    At the beginning of every year I predict:

    "Man, I have no idea what's gonna happen in the US brewing industry in the next 12 months...".

    So far, I've been right every year!
     
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  29. Roguer

    Roguer Poo-Bah (4,964) Mar 25, 2013 Georgia
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    My prediction covers that. :wink:
     
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  30. Roguer

    Roguer Poo-Bah (4,964) Mar 25, 2013 Georgia
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    I've seen some very impressive barrel aged IPA options - just not many. Beer'd took their best (IMHO) DIPA and aged it in gin, and the results were unlike anything I'd ever had - and good. DFH, of course, has long aged DIPAs on oak, which presents the same problem as aging in spirits (when you're talking about IPAs).

    It's a counter-intuitive process, and I think more breweries are going to get it wrong than get it right. Doom is a polarizing example, but some people do like it, at least.

    I think we'll see more of it, but I agree with you that most of the time it's going to result in a miss rather than a hit.
     
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  31. TongoRad

    TongoRad Poo-Bah (2,768) Jun 3, 2004 New Jersey
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    DFH blends theirs with fresh 90 minute, and that gives Burton Baton it's zippy edge. Then again, it's more of a Burton Ale than IPA if you want to get technical :wink:.
     
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  32. Roguer

    Roguer Poo-Bah (4,964) Mar 25, 2013 Georgia
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    I don't disagree on either point - and the latter is what makes it so damn good! I think it's still a viable example, however, especially with how well it holds up with age (compared to traditional IPAs, including 90 minute).
     
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