Anyone good at math? Top 100 question

No math needed.

-bal Vanilla Bean DL has only 157 reviews but that was with a much larger bottle count IIRC. For Ann to get there, nearly all of the people who had it would need to review it on BA and give it close to all 5's. Not going to happen.

Edit: it appears from the reviews that variant of DL was draft only. But they still go over a 2 year span.

 

I may have done the math wrong, but I pretended that there was 1 more review (giving it 10) and that the rAvg didn't change (4.95) and I got a Weighted Rank of 4.305. That wouldn't be enough for it to crack the top 100 yet

EDIT: I think I did the formula wrong, one sec.....

 

Assuming that Ann's average continues to be a 4.95 and that PtY continues to maintain an average of 4.67, you're looking at the following set-up:

((4.95*x) + (3.66*10))/(x+10) = 4.67

Solving for x, you get a little bit more than 36, so you're talking 37 more reviews.

 

Sorry, 28 more reviews (as there are already 9).

 

I got the same result. I also tried to figure out how many reviews it would take at the same score to get on the top 100, but I'm not good at math. However, if Ann got 25 reviews and stayed at the same ranking (which seems unlikely), it'd be a 4.58, which just beats out king henry...Anyway, some useless info.

 

The math isn't that hard, especially if you just extrapolate a continued average of 4.95. If Ann can maintain this, we get the formula

(v/(v+10)) x 4.95 + (10/(v+10)) x 3.66 = WR, with v = number of reviews. To reach #1, it would have to attain a WR of at least 4.67 - but let's say 4.68, just to make sure it's above PtY, as I'm not sure how the rounding is done. So:

4.95v/(v+10) + 36.6/(v+10) = 4.68

Since I don't feel like busting out my calculator and long-lost algebra skills, I just plugged this into Wolfram Alpha and got an answer of 37.7778, so 38 reviews.

If a beer were somehow to get nothing but perfect 5s, it would take 32 reviews to land in the top spot.

 

Sorry, math and beer don't mix well.

 

It also only needs 11 to make it into the Top 100. 10 puts it just out of reach (4.305), 11 puts it somewhere in the mid to late 80s (4.336). 15 reviews would put it at #34.

 

I dunno, I found that having a beer or two while doing math homework worked quite well in grad school

 

Normally I would agree, but I recently solved a seemingly impossible functional analysis problem after drinking a fair amount of beer! I had been busy with it all day with no luck, so I had a few beers and decided to look at it again and.... boom I suddenly had the solution

 

That's why I said math and beer don't mix well but didn't say math and beer NEVER mix.