Beer in 2018, As It Was Foretold

Not sure how we'd go about determining this, but how do we know that Beer/Mug Club memberships are growing?

I mean, you'd figure that they'd have to just on the pure scale of growth of small breweries with taprooms, but that doesn't really quantify things well, does it?

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if such clubs were decreasing in popularity on a percentage basis. They were certainly very popular 5 or so years ago, but I think that the average craft beer consumer isn't very concerned with the exclusivity and discounts that these memberships promise and, many times, if they do the math, they realize that they aren't worth the price being charged.

 

Of course not.

 

I was given a 3 month beer club membership for Christmas, so I can confirm a growth of at least one

 

Duly noted.

 

To be fair, I'm am just using my personal experience here. I don't have hard numbers so I could be wrong.

But based on my experience, the beer club I have participated in for years, has expanded every year.

I joined two more this year, both are breweries who's beer I have enjoyed for years. One moved into my area and offers local pickup, the other started a new beer club for 2018 which includes in-state shipping. So a club expansion and new club.

I've also seen more clubs coming online or expanding through out California. Perhaps its a regional thing.

Again, I don't have hard numbers, just observations. So I could be off here.

While exclusivity, is not my thing, I'm not a trader. But from those that I see around me, it sure seems alive and well.

As for discounts and doing the math, it is also true these clubs generally don't appeal to the "dollar per ounce" consumer. Mostly because they tend to be for high end bottles. But for those of us that like the high end beers, the math does work out. We end up getting really good bottles ( exclusive or not ) at a good price.

So I'll stand by my prediction. We can revisit it in a year and see.

 

I would lean towards these clubs expanding, as well, just because there are more people drinking craft beer. I just think there are too many options for these things to continue to be successful, though. You can only spread your money over so many breweries.

Although the high end of craft beer has certainly expanded, "normal" craft beer is decidedly where the lion's share of the growth is. That could also hamper the growth of the exclusive memberships/societies.

 

Awfully wide brush on that nomination... Salvator? Spaten Premium? MGD?

 

IPA's are like a gateway....a lot stay in this realm and prefer to stay there and there's an absurdly large untapped market out there waiting for years to come. I say good...more lambic for me.

 

In NYS, farm brewers get significant tax breaks and can serve booze from other farm breweries, cideries, wineries, and distilleries. Seems like a lot of competition.

 

Although I've read about this designation, I don't know much about it. It would seem to me that "farm breweries" wouldn't really be close to many other businesses, but if you'd have multiple locations/taprooms, I could see how this could certainly be competition. Can you help me better understand these breweries from a first-person perspective?

 

The farm designation only refers to sourcing of products from NY suppliers (farms). There are plenty that are remote, but many are in urban/suburban areas.

 

I nominate copper legend from Jack's Abbey. I can tell you from experience it hits on all cylinders as a shower beer.

 

But would be used by everyone not InBev/MillerCoors.

Should any brewery dependent on investors or stock holders be considered independent? Regardless of whether they brew 1,000 barrel of 1,000,000 barrels.

 

Pilsner will always be my first choice for shower beer.

 

These are 2018 predictions. A growing economy, which is likely to expand based on current forecasts. More growth overall, which is likely to continue to the trend of expanded growth in the high end beer market. Those in that market prefer convenience over the :"shit show", "lawn chair " approach to buying beer, and are willing to pay for it.

I think the mid-range, in particular large craft beer national and internal brands will face increased competition that may effect their bottom line.

Local, small brewers, should continue to see growth, as the the trend toward fresh, local small batches will continue to capture consumer attention.

As for one market segment interfering with the other I don't see it in 2018. High end buyers will continue to buy in an expanding economy, which will add to the growth of beer clubs.
Regional and international brands will continue to be put under stress from local brands.

Value buyers will continue to shop at Costco and other low margin retailers.

Saturated areas like San Diego, will see slower growth, except for those who have expanded into other markets though beer clubs or a local footprint.

Growth areas like Los Angeles will continue to see high growth, in particular by independent brewers.

Again, just my prediction. But after but after nearly 40 years of observation its not without a little insight

And again, I'm happy to revisit this next year, to see how it turns out.

 

You mean to tell me that Samichlaus doppelbock, ABV 14%, is not a good shower beer? What is this world coming to??

 

Just be sure to wear your flotation device!

 

I think the helles is better paired with tea tree shampoo, but I'm no cicerone.

 

Interesting. I would like to see more NE IPAs/DIPAs distributed here and also, locally from breweries.

Cheers!

 

Only true shower beer is in fact Shower Beer.

Don't follow false prophets.