Bottle Logic (2023)

That's literally what he said. You can see some of those bottles date back to 2020

 

Bottle dates don't indicate to anyone whether they move. Places that take pride in managing featured shelves like this usually restock the display quickly if they have extra inventory in the back and/or frequently re-up from the brewery. However, if you're saying this shop told you that they never sell these bottles then all that's moot.

 

My quick math indicates somewhere between $20k-$30k. Hopefully that shelf is bolted to the wall.

 

I can tell you from my own personal experience living in Orange County, this is what most bottle shops who get Bottle Logic distro look like now. Every Total Wine and BevMo look like this too. Shelves of Stasis releases dating all the way back to 2021. It is still a strange sight to see because I was chasing bottles back when they would instantly sellout on Eventbrite. Times have changed.

 

I purchased most of the stasis releases for years. Now I can't justify $25 for 500ml more than once or twice a year. I'd rather buy multiple 12oz Firestone Walkers for $10-12.

 

It's crazy how broader interests turn on a dime like that, even though IMO it has nothing to do with any downturn in quality. And it seems to have occurred everywhere all at once, not just Cali.

 

I had a 2022 FO and NC last night, and was very underwhelmed with both of them. I’d rather get a four pack of a good double IPA now… I think my tastes have changed.

 

Leche Reserva might be one of the best beers I've had this year, tasted fantastic and had so many interesting layers to it

 

With inflation still high, price per oz is everything to me. I no longer get those beer boners and that itch to tick every rare beer release. No matter how great the beer is, I can’t justify the paying that much anymore.

 

I frequent BL at least once a week partly because my wife enjoys their smoothy style beers, and to be fair, I do think they’re pretty tasty. They no longer make beers that I enjoy. In fact, my beer friends rarely get excited for anything they make and I have a hard time ordering anything from them that I think it’s better then meh.

They’re not hurting. There’s always people there, and obviously I don’t see their finances, but I venture to say that many people there enjoy their seltzers, smoothy style beer and big stouts.

I think they make super approachable beer that the masses like, but I think most “beer geeks” have long moved on and I think that’s ok on both ends.

 

Considering everywhere I go I'm in a traffic jam on the road or at a cash register surrounded by people consuming and traveling like I haven't seen in years, I'd lean away from personal economics and hype and more towards thinking it's a matter of having one's fill while also taking everything in moderation, particularly in regards to health.

Solid BA stouts are accessible enough today that supply finally seems to be outpacing demand. There's no need to mob and hoard one or two specific hype factories, and you can either stick more local or focus on the one or two you prefer without as much of a struggle. Furthermore, being able to easily get a pour on draft is finally something you can almost always rely on.

I don't necessarily think there are significantly more breweries who are doing this style well, but the ones that do where I am are doing so at higher volume with more regular releases, while other hype breweries out of state seem to be as well, ultimately allowing them all to spread their stock out over more days or distribute it further into each other's territory, which seems to be a sign of a broader pattern everywhere.

I'm guessing we'll see a retraction in the production of barrel aged stouts, if we aren't already. Three Floyd's clearly read the writing on the wall over the past few years and accounted for lower fest attendance this year, despite it being the first true Dark Lord Day fest since 2019. At the same time that they reduced the amount of regular Dark Lord they produced, they also increased the number of variants we could all walk away with, and now there's a bigger push for both on trading boards than I've seen since pre-pandemic. Time will tell if they found a sweet spot, or if it was a one time spike due to all the changes they made while hosting a still successful if not slightly smaller fest.

 

I agree with many of your points, but I think there's some nuance that could be teased out.

1. Prices industry wide have risen. BL used to be "more expensive than average"; today, I find them more in the average. There are many options that are more expensive.
   1. This is simple budget bath - if you only have $200 to spend on beer and prices rise, you have less money to spend everywhere.
   2. If everyone that bought BL buys 1 less bottle as a result, that's a lot less beer selling.
2. Fads only last so long. Hype/demand create artificial hype/demand.
   1. I like the BL beers I have tried, and I agree that they seem to retain barrel while nailing flavors. That's not common. That said, pastry beers in general were (I think, personally) more popular several years ago. I think that's fading.
   2. When demand outpaces supply with a good that can be resold, it creates artificial demand. People buy more because (a) they can't buy more later, (b) to trade, (c) to resell. This artificial demand makes it look like demand is stronger than it is. So, when supply outpaces demand, it appears that demand has fallen when a huge portion of this is effectively just that artificial demand going away.
3. Distribution footprint hasn't grown
   1. Without that artificial demand, there's going to be a glut with increased supply without an increased distribution footprint.
4. Average quality is up, decreasing demand outside of distribution, which decreases demand locally.

 

this last release of Paisley Complex was insanely good. Can't say I agree with BL quality have gone down at all. Overproduction perhaps so less people chasing but the beer quality (from my perspective) has stayed great

 

I'm a little surprised BL hasn't started to ship directly in CA, but maybe they should re-look into that as an option to move more product. Including crowlers.

 

Where is this at?

 

They are moving plenty of product. Everything sitting on the shelf they’ve already been paid for. It’s the store that has thousands tied up.

 

Has anyone heard about an upcoming FO 2023 release? I feel like last years was around end of July

 

Well it is finally STOUT WEATHER!, so most likely it'll be released in the next couple of weeks unless there was some need to age it a lot longer.

FO is usually sometime in July-August depending. For instance, based on past EventBrite receipts, in 2018 is was 08/11/18, in 2019 it was 07/14/19, in 2020 it was 07/26/20, etc.

 

Where is this? And, is there Somniphobia and Deprecophobia sitting there?