Bourbon County Rare bottle count

Nobody knows but Goose for certain, but estimates are that there is a decent amount going out

 

http://www.chicagobeergeeks.com/2015/10/black-friday-in-october/

200 barrels = 6,200 gallons * 128 oz/gal = 793,600 oz / 16.9 oz/bottle = 46,958 bottles.

just an estimate, as we dont know how many bottles will be released but...a lot.

 

Houston alone received ~1,500 cases = ~18,000 bottles, according to the above quoted article. But we were also on the migration week path

 

I think when they're saying 1,500 cases that's all the variants combined, a large majority probably being regular, barleywine and coffee.

 

That makes a TON more sense!

 

I was told from a GI rep during migration week 11,000 bottles, 10,000 for disto. 22 cities getting it. If you didnt have a migration week you better go to a city that did!

 

I don't think this is accurate. Bottle count sounds low, and I know for a fact that several stores in Sarasota, Florida are getting Rare. Seems pretty odd that we would be one of the lucky 22 cities, but I suppose it's possible.

 

It's not correct. If you talk with your local sales associate/distributor they should know their allocation and their states. If you correlate the information for a few states and extrapolate it....between rare day and black Friday more bottles are being released than the 12k that were released in 2010.

 

I agree with @4lo. The local AB distributor for SE WI said they received 250, so that puts the entire state around 500-700 bottles?? How much will kegged? How much will be held back for events? Some people are predicting 40k bottles with it sitting on the shelves because of the price. IMO it will sell out to the people that wait in line for 4+ hours. Luckily we get to find out in 7-10 days.

 

I've seen math that says roughly 40-60,000 bottles, but I don't remember where.

That said, Boise is getting some and I can't imagine if Lil'Ole Boise, Idaho is getting bottles it is actually nearly as rare as people are hoping. There is enough in Boise that everyone in my tasting group can get at least one if they want one.

 

The thread about Bourbon County and Rare Day in the Great Lakes forum had quite a few posts discussing bottle counts for Rare, and the most prevalent/convincing argument was in line with the 60k number that @JohnGalt1 mentioned.

At least one store in Ann Arbor is getting all the non-Prop variants, and there is no way AA is one of the "select" cities. Nor did it see any Migration Week festivities that I'm aware of. It won't be easy to get, but I do think there is the illusion that it will be more scarce than it really is--people seem to be thinking of it the way we think of 2010 Rare, and I don't think it's going to be nearly that scarce.

I'm genuinely curious to see how well it moves, given the price point, bottle size and the fact that there looks to be a pretty sizeable nationwide bottle count.

 

I've seen the 60k number thrown around a bunch and frankly not sure I believe that one either, but I do think it will be far north of 12k. I'm not sure how we'll ever know given that the bottles aren't numbered this time, but maybe that's the point. It must be easier to sell 40 or 60 or whatever thousand bottles of a $60 "rare" beer than one with double the bottle count of the typical BC variants that used to go for 25 bucks. Every person that sees it at their local shop will think they are super lucky to have stumbled upon the rareness, and gee, I better snatch this up while I have the chance!

 

Yeah, I agree--that number honestly seems so absurd, but the logic/math behind arriving at it is about as sound as it could be given the fact that it's based on rumor and (informed) speculation. And it's even somewhat conservative in allowing for some loss of beer to evaporation and holding some back for kegs and events.

Of course, you have to imagine that a reasonable chunk of the total number of bottles will be held back by GI for future events and whatnot.

But still, regardless of the specific number, there look to be a lot of bottles for something labeled "rare". I know the label is referring more to the barrels than to the release numbers, but in a hobby/pursuit/culture for which there can be such a freakout over things being RAREZ, it's certainly a loaded word.

 

I think the 60k number is about as reliable as you can get without official word. The math adds up, and Chris Quinn stressed on his podcast how very, very reliable his source is, and he just doesn't seem like someone who would intentionally spread false information, or put a number out there like that if he wasn't really sure of it.

 

This. I had also heard somewhere over 44,000 bottles.

 

I've seen 44k and 60k thrown out there a lot but that seems to be based on the number of barrels and ounces per barrel etc. That's the amount of bottles that would be produced if they were to drain every last ounce out of every single bottle and not keg any of it. Combine that with the fact that AB has intense quality control (which is why you rarely ever hear about a bad bottle of BC stuff) so you have to consider the possibility that a barrel or two were tossed because of the fear of infection. If 1/3 of the beer produced was kegged, the number of bottles would be closer to 30k.

That being said, whether it's 30k or 100k, that's a fuck load of $60 bottles which will likely be priced even higher than that in some cities. Unless I hear that this beer is orgasm inducing (which I haven't), at $3.50 an ounce, I'll pass.

 

C'mon guys, Rare is in the name, so it must be right?

 

Don't we need to subtract the bottles from Rare Day?

 

There is more Rare in Central FL this year than Vanilla Rye last year.

I've also had to explain why it is $60 retail to a few friends and I end up stopping somewhere around ... because they can.