Breweries Trending Up and Down

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by Kadonny, Jan 2, 2014.

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  1. Kadonny

    Kadonny Meyvn (1,259) Sep 5, 2007 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    So for the upcoming year, which breweries do you see trending up and which breweries do you see trending down. Here are mine:

    Dirt Wolf, Hop Ranch, return of Old Ho and for a lesser extent regular supply of Headwaters.
    BBC. I just like what they are doing overall with all the new beers they are rolling out.
    Goose Island. Love the sours they added and we finally saw some Juliet here in PA. BCBS and BCBBW always winning.

    Green Flash. I'm not even sure why, but I don't by or drink their stuff anymore. I think some of it has to do with prices.
    Southern Tier. They just don't make much I like anymore. Even Pumking this year was less than stellar IMO....a ton of it is still sitting on shelves here.
  2. BMitch

    BMitch Initiate (170) Jul 10, 2012 Virginia
    Beer Trader

    Agree with that. Axing Oat/Mocha/Javha doesn't win any points with me. They were ST's three best beers, IMO.
  3. TheGator321

    TheGator321 Aspirant (239) May 29, 2013 Connecticut

    BBC as in Berkshire Brewing Co.?
    konabrewer likes this.
  4. Kadonny

    Kadonny Meyvn (1,259) Sep 5, 2007 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Sorry, BBC = Boston Beer Company
  5. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (3,493) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Premium Member

    Keith, I just want to chime in the topic of Victory. I had a great conversation with a Victory Sales Person at the Whole Foods Devon pub last week. There are all kinds of good stuff planned for Victory in 2014 since they will have expanded capacity from the opening of the Parkesburg brewery (which is scheduled to be fully operational/bottling by the end of this month). He was not at liberty to disclose all of the details but a few things he was able to discuss:
    • Ten Year Alt will be available on draft (I really wish they would bottle this!)
    • Mad King Weisse will be available in bottles (big bottles I think)
    • There will be a summer sampler pack which will include Whirlwind Wit, Summer Love, another beer he mentioned and a possibility they will bottle the Kolsch (Woo-Hoo for the Kolsch).
    Yep, I am really looking forward to Victory in 2014; they are getting even better!

    victory4me, Starkbier, zid and 2 others like this.
  6. SeanBond

    SeanBond Savant (909) Jul 30, 2013 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    I definitely agree with Victory (just based on the hype on these forums, and how solid Dirt Wolf is), and the first name that popped in my head was Goose Island (although they're one of my favorite breweries, so I'm a bit biased).

    With the success and mind-share that Bourbon County enjoyed this year, coupled with the new, quality releases (Sixth day, Ten Hills, the Sisters), I think they've made great strides in negating some of the doubt/fear/hatred that they started receiving when they were bought out.
    Imacopyouidiot likes this.
  7. jmw

    jmw Initiate (0) Feb 4, 2009 North Carolina

    I am not a speculator. Apparently neither are you:
    So this is about you, and not their market potential then?
  8. ivorycannon

    ivorycannon Zealot (500) Feb 21, 2013 Indiana

    ST 2X and Backburner will always be solid Southern Tier beers. 2X Rye is even great. Pumpking I will always at least drink one. As for some of ST'S other beers, if it says chocolate or crem on it I will not drink it. I do not drink overly sweet beers.(yes pumpking is a bit sweet) Just not my taste.
  9. Shagator

    Shagator Initiate (0) Mar 17, 2012 Kentucky

    Green Flash is still a go to for me. Price is a little steep but not as much as some of the other
    CalgaryFMC likes this.
  10. Thickfreakness

    Thickfreakness Initiate (0) Oct 2, 2010 New York

    Dark Horse... Finally in NY and I could drink Scotty Karate all day long!
    Brooklyn... I'll miss Monster, but Blast in 4-packs, HELL YEAH!!!
    Captain Lawrence... Frost Monster
    Firestone Walker... Always on the up! Hoping for Stickee Monkee bottles in NY!

    Brooklyn... No Monster? Are you shitting me?
    Green Flash... No Rayon Vert 4pks? Eat me!
    Ithaca... Still no Brute? WTF?
    Goose Island... No varients in upstate NY? Coconut only in Chicago? Fuck You!!!
  11. PSU_Mike

    PSU_Mike Champion (840) Sep 6, 2013 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Victory - Hop ranch, Dirt Wolf, need I say more?
    Lagunitas - Sucks year round
    Sierra - Always on the up swing, if you disagree, you are wrong

    Every brewery with shitty distribution - hipsters lose in a capitalist world but feel free to think people will do as you please and drive hundreds of miles to buy your growler-only beer while real businesses cash in on distribution. I'm looking at you Vermont.
    Every distributor with bombers over $10 a bottle - you're arrogance is offensive and will catch up with you if you think your beer is that valuable. Why should I pay $25 a bomber on your piece of shit when Dirt Wolf is $9.99 a 4 pack?
  12. Imacopyouidiot

    Imacopyouidiot Initiate (0) Oct 1, 2012 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    Well, comparing IPAs to barrel aged stouts isn't really on par price wise because you have to: buy bourbon barrels, add the highest quality berries/coconut/coffee, have numerous employees to constantly sample during barrel aging to maintain consistency, and time.
    It takes 3-5 weeks to make an ipa. It takes 10-12 months to make a ba stout.
  13. opwog

    opwog Defender (663) Jun 16, 2008 Minnesota

    I wouldn't have worded it like that, but inside of this post there are some valid points that I do agree with. Especially on the issue of price. In a boom time for any industry, it is easy to be a success on varying levels when demand exceeds supply and you are riding a wave based on trending popularity. But you look at SN, Victory and Lagunitas and they bring quality to market at reasonable pricing. There are several others around the country that do the same. But the rest of these guys with their outrageous pricing are going to see a precipitous fall from grace during the shakeout.
    jasonmason likes this.
  14. opwog

    opwog Defender (663) Jun 16, 2008 Minnesota

    Two words for you...

    Surly Darkness

    $20 a bottle for a non barrel aged imperial stout.
  15. Daemose

    Daemose Devotee (426) Oct 3, 2011 Texas
    Beer Trader

    Jester King. I love them, though two of their best beers are virtually nonexistent, another only one per person per visit.

    They've gotten popular real fast which is a good thing for them, but bad for people who live outside of Austin.
    nsheehan likes this.
  16. PSU_Mike

    PSU_Mike Champion (840) Sep 6, 2013 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    There are certain exceptions. I feel a good, aged barleywine can command a premium price and warrant it. I don't particularly care for stouts so my opinion on this is skewed but I know people go crazy for them. the market grows and other brewers pop up, there becomes more affordable options which leaves that $30 bottle of Hop God as a permanent fixture on the shelf as it should be.
  17. jageraholic

    jageraholic Devotee (411) Sep 16, 2009 Massachusetts
    Beer Trader

    While i agree axing those beers sucked, i thought pumking was its usual self, backburner and krampus are incredible and compass and live were great new additions to their lineup.
  18. JackHorzempa

    JackHorzempa Poo-Bah (3,493) Dec 15, 2005 Pennsylvania
    Premium Member

    DeanMoriarty likes this.
  19. Kadonny

    Kadonny Meyvn (1,259) Sep 5, 2007 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    It's about both. You have to form an opinion as to who you think is trending up/down, correct? You should form that opinion based on what you see and hear about from those breweries. Based on those assumptions, I can base my very valid opinion on the breweries I mentioned.
  20. azorie

    azorie Initiate (0) Mar 18, 2006 Florida

    I don't really think about beer like this, but I can understand the passion. I think its a nice different conversation. and it is beer chat. of course its ALL opinion. I think its fun, I like to read it. for what that is worth.

    Folks have to remember while some brewers read these boards. We are a small group, compared to the masses that actually buy good beer. I mean I loved Tumbler, its gone. I bitched and its over. SN does what they do. the bigger they get, the more folks they got to analyze the markets. etc. No to mention the other tiers make a difference in what sells.

    only the BA knows the trends, and I think you have to subscribe to get allot of that info.

    just my 2 cents.
    Kadonny likes this.
  21. BMitch

    BMitch Initiate (170) Jul 10, 2012 Virginia
    Beer Trader

    Don't get me wrong, I still think they've got some good things going. Still a fan of Unearthly/Oak Unearthly and Choklat for starters. I was just pretty disappointed when I heard those other 3 beers were going away. Obviously there must be a legitimate business reason behind that decision, but as a consumer it's definitely a bummer.
  22. youngac

    youngac Initiate (159) Jul 14, 2005 North Carolina

    For me:

    Trending up:

    Toppling Goliath - way up!
    Terrapin - only because I never had access before and I'm finding several tasty brews
    NoDa - again, access for me is a big part but lots of solid brews
    Alpine - keep brewing great beers when I can actually get them
    Stone - love the new releases

    Trending down:

    Dogfish - don't get excited about them much anymore, don't know why
    Great Lakes - nothing to get excited about anymore, still best regular porter out there

    Im sure there are several others.
  23. shredder83

    shredder83 Devotee (423) Feb 21, 2013 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    For me personally fff. $30+ for their barrel aged offerings, raising case prices and not keeping up with demand despite their supposed "upgrades" over the summer has soured me on them. That and the fact that they distribute to what, four states when they can barely keep their beer on shelves in Indiana let alone Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio.

    Trending up for me, pipeworks and their eagerly anticipated tap room offering pours and grower fills sometime in 2014.
    youngac likes this.
  24. Kadonny

    Kadonny Meyvn (1,259) Sep 5, 2007 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    I still love Pumking and drink it every year, but just based on my perception of it this year and availability of it even now (in January), it seems the general public has soured a bit on it. Backburner to me was never a very good barleywine, I think there are much better out there. Choklat is good, but how much of that (and Creme Brulee) can you really drink? I don't care for Oak Unearthly at all and the rest of their lineup is meh to me except 2XIPA which I do enjoy. I still have not tried Live yet (forgot about that one), maybe I should before I have this overall opinion on ST.
  25. PSU_Mike

    PSU_Mike Champion (840) Sep 6, 2013 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    I know I already replied to you but I had more thoughts. Lagers also take more time than ales. Not 10 months but longer nonetheless. They are not jacked up in price. Your $25 bomber extrapolated out equates to a $327.27 case of beer ounce for ounce. I don't care what/how/where/why/who goes into making that's not worth that price.

    Westvrleteren 12 is ~$40 a case (according to their website)
    Heady Topper is ~$77 a case (according to a tweet from Kimmich)

    These are the 2 beers considered to be the best beers in the world depending on which website you go to. No amount of labor, ingredients, or processes justify a 4.25x price jump from the best beer(s) in the world.
    russpowell, ceeg and sjjn like this.
  26. HRamz3

    HRamz3 Initiate (0) Feb 9, 2010 Pitcairn

    Huh? One hand you rant against breweries with limited distribution (who continue to sell out at very reasonable prices). Then on the other you complaining about high prices. Pick one, can't have it both ways.

    That being said...

    Up: Otter Creek, Long Trail, Victory

    Down: Green Flash, Goose Island
  27. PSU_Mike

    PSU_Mike Champion (840) Sep 6, 2013 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Oh you absolutely can. While increasing distribution would create an initial investment, if your beer is selling well in smaller markets, the investment is absolutely justified. Wider distribution is more opportunities for sales. All of the breweries with the widest distribution channels are the ones offering the most affordable beer (Victory, Sam Adams, Lagunitas, Sierra Nevada, Stone, Bells, Founders, etc.). I'm shocked I even have to argue this point.

    Now, I am not talking about Joe's Brewery and Vacuum Repair down the road. I am talking about larger breweries who clearly have the demand, means, and product to succeed on a wider scale but refuse to distribute. Like I said before, hipsters fail in a capitalist market.
  28. rlcoffey

    rlcoffey Initiate (0) Apr 20, 2004 Kentucky

    BBC = Bluegrass Brewing Company, at least in my locale.
    Shagator, mizary and SomethingClever like this.
  29. YamBag

    YamBag Initiate (190) Feb 2, 2007 Pennsylvania

    Up - Victory: Incredible line up of all styles
    Down - Dogfish Head: The 90s called and they want their beer back
  30. Ilovelampandbeer

    Ilovelampandbeer Zealot (552) Aug 25, 2013 New York
    Beer Trader

    UP: (meaning they havent yet hit their peak)
    Goose Island
    Cigar City
    Ballast Point
  31. Imacopyouidiot

    Imacopyouidiot Initiate (0) Oct 1, 2012 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    Ha Westy 12 is $85 for a brick. 6 bottles +glass. My friend bought a few in Belgium for 15 Euro each.
    HRamz3 likes this.
  32. PSU_Mike

    PSU_Mike Champion (840) Sep 6, 2013 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

  33. Kadonny

    Kadonny Meyvn (1,259) Sep 5, 2007 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    Bam, shots fired against DFH!

    I keep forgetting about Sixpoint. I love some of the stuff they are doing, especially Resin and Diesel. I think Sixpoint is heading in the right direction, I hope their quality maintains.
  34. Imacopyouidiot

    Imacopyouidiot Initiate (0) Oct 1, 2012 Illinois
    Beer Trader

    And how much is the roundtrip flight to Belgium?
    #34 Imacopyouidiot, Jan 3, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2014
    HRamz3 likes this.
  35. jrnyc

    jrnyc Meyvn (1,278) Mar 21, 2010 New York
    Premium Member Beer Trader

    Down...... Any brewer who doesn't bottle date their DIPAs/IPAs.
  36. GetTheYayo

    GetTheYayo Devotee (458) Aug 26, 2012 Pennsylvania
    Beer Trader

    This. I almost cried when I heard they were discontinuing Mokah.
  37. TheodorHerzl

    TheodorHerzl Zealot (518) Mar 30, 2007 Indiana
    Beer Trader

    Up: anyone making tasty beer at a fair price

    Down: all of the new breweries in planning that think they are God's gift to wort and slamming other breweries or trying to build the hype machine for untested beer.
    nickapalooza86 and russpowell like this.
  38. Modernrickk

    Modernrickk Defender (675) Oct 3, 2013 California
    Beer Trader

    The six pack is trending down for new breweries- kinda lame for someone that doesn't have friends that like good beer- I can't just keep having bombers after bombers- it's not even a price thing but I've gained hella weight ahahahah

    Trending up is
    Eagle rock
    Smog city

    Trending down (for me)
    Dogfish head

    New years resolution is to drink more local brew - LA county is gaining steam little by little
  39. TheBrewo

    TheBrewo Initiate (0) Nov 11, 2010 New York

    As Rochester, NY locals/natives we have supported Three Heads Brewing from day one. It has been great to see them up their distribution and watch how receptive each new market has been to them. Otherwise, on a more "major brewery" scale, Lagunitas has had us starstruck since Sucks.
    3HeadsBrewing and GreesyFizeek like this.
  40. sisterthelonious

    sisterthelonious Initiate (0) Aug 3, 2013 Wisconsin

    My Ups:
    Toppling Goliath- With a pale ale to rival Hoppy Birthday and Zombie Dust (pseudoSue) and a IIPA that rivals HT (Zeelander), they're poised to be the next Alpine. Which didn't make my list only because they've held status quo as the best hoppy brewery in San Diego for the past 5 years. Which means they are trending even. Oh, and they make killer stouts, too. Which Alpine decidedly does not.

    New Glarus- Another super-regional that just keeps making better beer. They brought back Belgian Red and brewed the hard-to-get ale of the year (Very Very Blackberry Sour). Adding a brand new aging cave for brewer Dan to play in means great things for Wisconsin residents.

    Beachwood- Snuck onto the scene last year with some nice beers on tap in San Francisco and San Diego. Started bottling this year. The best of the new wave of LA breweries.

    San Diego (the whole city)- Societe has the best Belgian beers in the state, two of the best IPA's in Southern California, and the best Imperial Stout West of the Rockies not named Old Rasputin. Modern Times is poised for a can takeover of the West Coast. Monkey Paw is the coolest brewpub in California (next to Scot Blair's two other bars, Hamilton's & Small Bar), Pizza Port keeps expanding, and Alpine is 20 minutes away. They get plenty of PtY in February, and beer week is Disneyland for hop-heads (while the rest of the family can literally spend the week at Disneyland).

    My Downs:
    Lagunitas- By the time I left California, I never drank Lagunitas. There were simply too many better, more local options in San Diego. Outside of SoCal, Lagunitas is (unfortunately) the most widely-distributed representation of West Coast styles. Green Flash is better (but more expensive). Stone's Enjoy By is cleaner than Sucks, but see below. Also, there appears to be some question about the character of the leadership of Lagunitas that reminds me of another NorCal brewery that has lost a lot of respect over the past few years...

    Stone- Stop making putting out half-assed, over-priced barrel-aged beers, please. Their beers were extreme 10 years ago, but nothing they've done (save Day Man and Enjoy By) in the past three years is really up to par. As production increases, it seems like quality goes down. It's barely perceptible, but it's happening. Stone stores popping up around SoCal, a new restaurant/brewery in SD, a long-awaited hotel, and now they want to open a brewery in Germany?

    Bell's- Hopslam ain't what it used to be, and they're getting schooled by Founders on how to put out exciting seasonal releases. They're beers are readily available in my city, but I never buy them. I can't imagine I'm the only one.

    Horny Goat, Big Bay, Chameleon, Milwaukee Brewing Co.- Milwaukee craft beer drinkers are becoming more educated by the day. Expect any brewery that can't execute a quality batch of beer to be gone within a year or two.
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