Brewery Acquisition Predictions

to piggyback off of this, i think what's notable about Blue Point isn't their size or reputation but their consistent placement in bars that don't normally sell craft (at least on LI). Toasted Lager serves as a craft beer crossover to tons of people, and I know plenty of bars who stock that instead of SA Boston Lager if they don't have the lines for both, plus the blueberry is pretty popular among non-craft drinkers. looking back on the GI sale, did they have a similar situation within their market as a brewery that had one or two of their beers at non-craft bars?

 

You know, I may be an oddity here, but if someone like Great Lakes, whom I love, were bought out by a big BMC or something, I'd still buy them. I will always support my local breweries, but if a regional/national brewery makes beer I love at a price I can justify, I'll still buy them even if one of the "bad" guys owns them.

 

I could see Harpoon or Abita for sure.

Maybe Uinta? I could also see Full Sail being a BMC brand as well.

 

I could see Anchor being the next guys bought up. HUGE distro, super solid line up, just recently moving into the IPA trend, and Steam is sold like hot cakes in SF.

That being said i will still gobble up sixers of liberty!

 

Agree with Abita and Southern Tier but not Bells or Anchor.

 

I have to disagree on this one.... To put Abita and Shipyard/SeaDog in the same "vain" as BP is a huge slight to Blue Point. The quality, range of styles, marketing (handles and packaging) and specialties from Blue Point put them several (if not more) leagues ahead of both breweries mentioned. Especially with Mosaic Session out now for BP, which is going to become a beast.
Warning- Harsh opinionated judgement ahead: Abita is mehhh at best, and Shipyard makes that hideous concoction known as Mint Chocolate Stout. Jesus christ, the only beer worse than that is Voodoo Maple Bacon. They would literally sell no beer if it weren't for Pumpkinhead. While both breweries seem to produce a lot of fruit/flavored beers (less so for Abita, though)... Blue Point has been phasing their only "fruit" beer out of the portfolio for the past few years. Only reason Blueberry isn't gone by now is because so many non-craft drinkers literally drink it like crack in their newer markets...

 

I believe that SN, Stone, Rogue, Anchor, and New Belgium are far too large to be acquired/doesn't make sense for them to take on investment. Anchor especially as it's been around for so long and is likely to have quite a complex shareholder structure.

Agree on Southern Tier, Avery, and Abita.

My main money would be on Great Lakes or Lagunitas. Big enough and have a established and mature portfolio. You look at acquisitions like Goose and Bluepoint and they're companies that had quite established and mature brands.

 

Would add Brooklyn in as well.

 

Of the GA breweries I'd have to say maybe Sweetwater but they do pretty well for themselves on their own from what I can gather... This is of course excluding Terrapin since they are already partially owned

 

Definitely. A lot of non-craft bars in Chicago would at least have 312 bottles. Keep in mind that even pre-buyout, GI was still on the same truck as Bud.

 

No reason to buy out small breweries as access to capital has obviously been easy in the recent years (NB expansion brewery, Lagunitas in Chicago, etc.)

 

Interesting question. Don't have a specific brewery in mind (though there's plenty you could name), but something in the South, perhaps? Growing portion of the country, still a large number of strictly BMC drinkers in the region... seems like there's an opportunity there to get behind a local business and help them lock down their immediate geography.

 

"Someone always playing corporation games
Who cares they're always changing corporation names
We just want to dance here someone stole the stage
They call us irresponsible write us off the page"

I used to care if someone "sold out," but the idea of selling out has become passé.
Goose Island proved that the "craft" can be maintained, even after acquisition.
I think we'll see metro/statewide distro brewers bought by the big guys, or even a big craft guy, like something similar to what Stone is doing with Maui, helping them to distribute regionally/nationally. Hopefully, the buyer will allow the brewers to maintain creative control and keep their employees. As for names, I got nothing.

 

It's an interesting point. I don't think any of these or any of the craft breweries in the US are too large to be acquired. Combine a persuasive strategy with a good financial offer and acquisitions happen. The former on the buy side, the later on the sell side. After all, Anheuser Busch was acquired. I don't think we will see consolidation as much as wholly or majority owned breweries left to operate on their own while utilizing some infrastructure and financial backing of the acquirer. Acquisitions can be a great thing for smaller companies, especially when they have reached their potential as a stand alone.

 

Lol... sixpoint has a fairly large distro and are pretty well known... I was actually pretty upset when I began trading to find out that sixpoint is well recieved but easily accessible...