Brewery Acquisition Predictions

I'm going to make a ridiculous bet here, not for what brewery will be bought out, but who will be doing the buying. I predict that in the next couple of years, Sam Adams' parent company, Boston Brewing, will make a bid to buy someone out.

Actually, let me wiki that to make sure they haven't already...what!? Boston Brewing Company makes Twisted Tea!? TRAITORS! *tableflip*

 

God, no! Avery is in a different category and they just expanded locally, are too small, too specialized and just too weird for mainstream. If you're going to look at a CO target for takeover, New Belgium would make more sense, as they've been trying to go national, have a popular product that can bridge mainstream and craft, and have matching styles to at least one of the possible aggressors (Duvel).

 

BBC's subsidiary, Alchemy & Science, bought Angel City Brewing Co. and purchased the Coney Island brands from Shmaltz.

Twisted Tea, like their cider brands, HardCore and Angry Orchard, originated with BBC - it was not a buyout. BBC also created the controversial Oregon Original/Oregon Ale & Beer Co. and once had a joint venture with Seagram for the Devil Mountain beer line.

 

Schlafly...Good brewery, great selection, currantly expanding its footprint, situated in a large metropolitan market and geographically close to others, great reputation and geographically central to most of the US .... I hope not !

 

"They pulled a dumptruck full of money up to my house- what was I supposed to do? I'm not made of stone."

I'm pretty sure that the 312 Urban Wheat was/is like that, and also to a certain extent Honkers.

This seems to be the workable pattern that is developing- the main interest is in the crossover market- getting tap handles and bottles in places that do a lot of volume and aren't necessarily craft-conscious (chain restaurants, chain stores, arenas, etc.), but also maintain a foothold in the more 'serious' craft community with the specialty/prestige yet lower volume products produced by the original brewing team.

The brewers that will appeal to the big guys will also be in need of an expansion to mainly deal with the capacity of their 'production' beers that are starting to dominate their total volume, and take away from their ability to handle the specialty stuff. Find somebody like that and you will likely have found the next one to be made an offer.

 

New Belgium and Full Sail are employee owned companies. I would think this would make them less likely to be bought out (not sure that the employees would all be willing to sell).

 

Agree. Blue Point has been, and will continue to stay a great brewery with a diverse portfolio despite this 'changing of the guard'. This is actually going to help them increase distribution without having the quality suffer. Win-win.

Shipyard, on the other hand, is a very weak brewery that totally needs to be re-vamped.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Red Hook be bought out by AB/InBev considering they are already in a distribution agreement with AB through the Craft Brew Alliance, which AB owns roughly 30% of.

 

Full Sail is employee-owned and operated, no? Seems like a stretch to convince all the workers to sell out.

 

The one you least expect

 

Yep, I can see where you're coming from.

I guess I look at what goes through in the typical craft acquisition and it's likely the sole purpose is for building the brand portfolio. InBevAB has a highly sophisticated infrastructure in place that likely doesn't need more property, plants, and equipments (especially with the premium it costs to purchase another brewery). Additionally, we can look at examples like Greg Hall leaving GI right after the acquisition that points to the conclusion that they likely aren't looking for talent so much. So, it concludes that, in my opinion, their main objective is acquiring breweries with substantial brand equity and ability to grow into new markets (you can look at GI and Blue Point being rather established brands domestically especially with highly concentrated sales of 312 and Toasted Lager).

IMO, although I think it will never happen...or at least be a few years out, Bell's would be a perfect takeover target. They have a highly mature portfolio with likely enormous concentration in Two Hearted and Oberon, two brands with enormous amounts of equity. Additionally, they're small enough that there is still growth opportunities. And it seems like they have a management team in place that is ready to try new things (launch of Upper Hand).

When I say NB, Lagunitas, etc. are too big, I really mean that there isn't much opportunity for further growth and any potential acquisition would likely come at the cost of cannibalizing some of InBevAB's craft portfolio.

 

I think if any Colorado brewery would sell, it would be Left Hand.

 

Avery is family owned, but yes I do agree the White Rascal could be the next big competitor to Blue Moon and Shock Top drinkers. I don't see Anchor selling out EVER. As for who _could_ be taken over? Rogue could be next... they haven't been doing as well as the used to but they do have great name recognition. They remind me of Widmer Bro Brewery before they got bought out by Anheuser-Busch.

 

...to Sam Adams. I feel the same way and added a bold prediction. They'll frame as working to preserve MA struggling MA breweries and keeping their facilities operational.

 

Dogfish Head...... would never do it.

 

I hope none of these predictions come true.

 

Agree 100%, my first thought was Abita. Good intro beers, good marketing, appeal and distro.

Not as sure about Shipyard, they're a conglomerate all of their own, owning Sea Dog, Casco Bay Brewery, bottling for Gritty's and contract brew for Peak Organic. They've also been franchising rights for Sea Dog brew pubs that have been popping up outside of Maine.

 

I thought about this and the best I could come up with that wasn't already mentioned was Otter Creek.

 

Well, I just got thoroughly schooled on the first point. *themoreyouknow*

And as for the second one, about Twisted Tea, that only makes it worse. Insidious brands like Twisted Tea and Mike's Hard lemonshit are cutting into craft beer sales.

 

Yep, i'd guess Brooklyn or Ommegang

The big one that noone expects would be Stone. They would get a HUGE payout