Brewery Acquisition Predictions

Ommegang is owned by Duvel Moortgat, like Boulevard. Has been for a few years.

And for the record, I have no problem with that because Duvel is a family company with a good reputation. They are not anything like the behemoth AB or AB In-Bev. They actually run a respectable business and play fair.

 

Karbach & Inbev?

 

Not that either would, but Bell's/ Founders would be great targets as they have a great following, strong lineup, and lots of demand where they do not have distribution.

 

Given who bought Boulevard (Duvel Moortgat) and the public preparations they made before the purchase (e.g., buying back all publicly traded stock in DM, a long range development plan that includes buying at least one more US brewery that fits with their long range plan) I suspect it wasn't only the dumptruck full of money that clinched the deal. Effectively Boulevard was not acquired so much as it became a significant part of a company that operates its business with an eye towards long term growth and has a long range business plan that includes quality beer and quality distribution.

 

What about the Craft Brew Alliance brands (Kona, Widmer, Redhook, Omission)? CBA is a public company. ABInBev already owns ~30% and has existing distribution agreements.

 

BA would then stand for Bear Arms if someone tried to buyout Founders. We would surround the brewery to keep poachers out

 

Out of curiosity, what makes you think STBC is ripe for picking?

 

My shot in the dark guess is Long Trail. Reason being is that they already have a large footprint in the Northeast, but whoever buys them might be able to capitalize on the Vermont image in a national distribution scenario. They have all of the major seasonals covered in a pretty straightforward lineup. Also, they have been able to get people excited with the latest Limbo release. Plus, I believe that they were already approached by AB at some point.

 

Yes, the Blue Point purchase by InBev confuses me. What is InBev gaining with this particular craft brewer under their ownership? Maybe they just like the water quality at that location or brick and mortar location for a brewery. It can't be anything about the Blue Point beers can it? Blue Point is a very pedestrian craft brewer IMO. Unless they strike gold with some new offering nothing to date has been very noteworthy.

 

Oh my word, if Long Trail sold out to Inbev I'd be on suicide watch.

 

I predict that AB or MillerCoors enter the mead market, whether through acquiring an established manufacturer like Moonlight or by creating a fake craft brand ala Third Shift. Mead seems to be a growing and untapped market but maybe its tough to turn a profit on that and that's why they haven't jumped in yet. I can picture fancy commercials at the corporate bee farm.

 

Do you think Michael would sell?

 

As an employee-owned company, it seems less likely as a candidate than others mentioned in the thread.

Shipyard seems like a perfect candidate for the big guys IMO.

 

I predict Ab/InBev will buy a west coast brewery like blue pt. it will be a brewery that sells around 60,000 barrels that is available in around 5-6 states. This will let them bring it national to all ther distributors. I am one who thinks EVERY craft brew that is in a Walmart, Stop & Shop, Costco, or any chain has already sold out. The breweries NOT the distributors pay for ads and SKU'S. Why??? More sales. The bigger question is why most people who think these breweries ( goose, blue pt) have sold out have no problem passing locally owned liquor stores to buy craft beer from the chains. The local owner who runs a small business works 50-70 hours a week and lives in town is passed by. I do not want a million comment that " I don't" because someone is buying it from the chains. I have even read on boards " hey just found beer X at Costco ". Every time I read post like that I want to scream. If ab/InBev, sabmiller are these big cooperate monsters what the hell is Walmart, Costco and any other big chains?

 

Abita and Brooklyn are two that I can think of

 

Right- and I'm pretty optimistic about that particular deal. I was mostly playing it for yuks off of Jake1605's post. Usually these arrangements do have mutual best interest at the core of them, it's true, and in many cases it's not simply the money that does the talking.

 

I could definitely see Stone acquiring a smaller brewery.

 

Brooklyn is way too established to sell out. They are expanding in Norway, as well as South America. I don't see that one. The Big Guys won't just buy the thousands of small breweries with questionable quality/products. It would be more likely to see sales of those reaching towards the Regional size, such as the Boulevard's, Magic Hat's, etc. but have not yet gotten a solid national foothold, like Brooklyn, Boston Beer, etc. Maybe a Long Trail, Otter Creek, Great Lakes, Boulder, etc.

 

I put down my far share of Shipyard beers in my early years of craft beer drinking; not so much of a Shipyard fan these days. However, they sell plenty of beer up and down the east coast. If they were not selling their beers they would not push them out so quickly; which is sadly what I think ultimately hurts the quality of their beer.
Seriously, if Pumpkinhead was their only selling beer it would be the only beer that they brewed. For example, take Shipyard Wheat Ale (http://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/139/59930/), it did not sell well, so where is it now...quickly retired.
Do not get me wrong, I definitely see your point. One must have a specific palate to drink the beers that you mentioned.

 

Shipyard is a good example. They sell a TON of the Pumpkinhead & now Applehead. They can't keep it in stock in many places. Those beers are ripe for a big player. I can see that in AB-Inbev or MillerCoors' portfolio