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Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Todd, Dec 2, 2020.
I will personally applaud and try to support any brewery that fights a second lockdown.
Yeesh. That is not comforting news.
Let's see, locally we have 8 breweries (I'm honestly not clear on whether one is open any more or not since they didn't release.a beer between early July and a single beer drop in September, and never responded to an email i sent them), so a 22% loss means losing 1.76 breweries. Can I imagine us losing 1 or 2 breweries in the next year? Ya, unfortunately I would consider us lucky if that's the outcome
One just reopened near me, but their closing down was not Covid related. They moved to better facilities.
During this MN Lockdown 2.0, I will continue to lend my small purchasing power in support of the mainly non-distributing small locals who depend on the local walk-in pub trade.
And, "it's quite possible the fallout from a second coronavirus shutdown will be worse than imagined" ... Of course it will be a disaster for the entire small business segment that depends on walk-in trade, not just breweries. And it is is only "worse than imagined" for those "leaders" who have limited ability to foresee (or choose to ignore) the impact of their edicts. Anyone who understands business has seen this coming. The simplistic "lock down" will have long-lasting negative effects. And, for the breweries, Minnesota's archaic over-regulation of the beer industry makes it even worse here.
I don't think this is directly a beer issue but more of an income issue. If people don't have jobs with steady hours a craft beer habit is difficult to maintain. One of the most profitable businesses to thrive under COVID has been liquor stores. People are still gonna drink craft but I am buying less $26+ 4-packs of hops that is for sure
And for some reason the markets have been doing fine. The DOW Jones ATH was less than a month ago. It is almost like the markets have been disconnected from reality (trillions of fed money printed from no where helps I guess?)
Just wait for the inevitable inflation.
You left out my qualifier: "Of course it will be a disaster for the entire small business segment that depends on walk-in trade, not just breweries."
Sorry, it's early and I glanced over that. I still stand by the post in general though regarding market-reality/disconnect /fed/inflation. The majority of jobs in the US are all service sector which nearly all require direct contact with customers so we aren't talking a minority of people.
If you think business is bad now wait until everyone's savings (those who actually have them) begin to lose there value.
Let's take it even further, as the USD purchasing power plummets or becomes unstable what does the world gain from having the USD as a world reserve currency? The implications of US policy right now are going to effect this country world for decades.
I can't help but wonder if people stretched themselves too thin supporting local early in the pandemic, and now with inconsistent jobs / hours and threatened job security, the price of local craft beer is becoming too much for some too choose over liquor store options.
There was a thread near the start of this pandemic about what you miss about pre-COVID craft beer, and it really got me thinking - I don't miss releases or crazy beer - I miss sitting at the bar and joking / talking with staff and other patrons, or enjoying sunshine on the patio while writing. all the while drinking a slow pour. Unfortunately, those are not things I can replicate in my apartment with to-go or distro'd beer.
This x 1000
@Harrison8 its also just been the length of time we have been having a stagnated economy.
A reminder to all that we avoid the temptation of dichotomizing this as a "protect business" argument vs. a "save lives" argument. Our federal government has the power and resources to both save lives and protect businesses. It chooses not to.
Who can say with real assurance what they'll be doing tomorrow.
That being said, hopefully in 2021 there will be a rebound economy as we find a vaccine that actually works.
With that, breweries will prosper, and the economy will return to, "normal," which will be, The New Normal.
@Singlefinpin anyone that accepts the new normal is peak stupid. It’s not really freedom if they can take it away, is it?
What do you suggest governors do when all day long their phones are blowing with constituents crying because loved ones are dying? Of course they are going to have shut things down. And then of course businesses are going to suffer as a result, which is why there needs to be a safety net for all these businesses that are hurting. But, of course, if we have a safety net that works then we're a bunch of pansy socialists, so we couldn't possibly do that.
@Providence Not all governors are shutting down. Florida is perfectly fine. Yesterday they had 82 covid deaths.
page 99 is total Florida deaths for a normal year. divide that number by 365.
I will say I think the Governor mostly got it right here. Holing up just bought time in the Spring. I do think this would be tons better if people would use common sense & wear a mask as practice out & about. The first 3 weeks at the most of the lockdown around here seemed low activity, after that close to normal traffic for sure. Too many people ignore the rules; we aren't Taiwan or New Zealand.
I know this is a mess my hospital has opened the overflow ward for Covid. Having said that, too many people have to take their ass to work on a daily basis. Europe locked down tighter than us & they are back sliding. The difference between them & us, they have a better social safety net. Doesn't come cheap.
Ok, so about 562 died per day in Florida in 2018. I'm not sure I follow. What does that have to do with covid deaths right now?
Your perspective seems about right. The pandemic is probably not much more of a problem for breweries than for restaurants, though. Both have the burden of continuing overhead on facilities. Breweries, though, have an added complication. Before the pandemic, there was already glut of craft breweries, with supply far exceeding demand.
That the 80 people who died most likely are overlapping normal deaths when you consider the most at risk (above 75). Numbers without context don’t really mean a whole lot. Last year 7300 people died a day and nobody cared. We don’t have a true idea of excess mortality yet as flu and pneumonia deaths are down got the year as more of these people are statistically dying of covid.
Im saying maybe this isn’t worth nuking people’s livelihoods and our children’s education especially when you look at Florida compared to other states that are completely locked down. Statistically 37,000 more people die for every 1% increase in the unemployment rate. We have to look at the whole picture and not hyperfocus on one disease which I believe the media is amping up.
Maybe minority opinion on here, but honestly there are too many breweries available at my local shop. We have all seen dusty bottles and I feel bad I can't support some good breweries as only can drink so much
I just hope it's not the breweries selling 16+ $ 4packs that survive this rough time
There is an internationalist government in formation happening now. Old wary friends are relieved and America will become a quick study for damage done everywhere. The world needs to trust a nice new and honest diplomatic style. I have great hope and it can not happen too quickly for me and millions.
I have to strongly disagree. they could actually have a backbone and correctly and objectively weigh the cost of shutdowns vs the cost to health of not shutting down. Deaths are a HUGE minority of constituents. Responses should be made based on objective assesment of effects to the majority, NOT based on a vocal and emotional minority.
Exactly, the federal government could pay restaurants/breweries to stay closed through the winter. Saves lives and keeps people afloat. Folks who don't know much about macroeconomics will scream about the national debt, but with interest rates so low right now, federal interest payments on debt (as a fraction of GDP) are pretty low too. Right now the larger threats to the economy and society are mass unemployment/underemployment, hunger, and hospitals running out of room.
I don't mean to say governor's are making these decisions based on the constituents who call with sad stories of their loved ones dying. I think many are making decisions based on the objective realities laid out by public health experts. The phone calls from constituents are simply the experiences that make the predictions by said experts become realities for the policy makers.
I have zero doubts that there are correlations between unemployment and deaths. I also have zero doubts that it is difficult to fully understand how many of the people who have died of covid would have likely died this year anyways. Not sure we'll ever be able to parse that out. Nevertheless, the realities of our health care system remain. There are only so many ICU beds and if those ICU beds get overrun, there is a solid chance some people who under normal circumstances wouldn't have died in 2020/2021, do die in 2020/2021. I'm not sure how a policy maker can win here. Make a move to protect businesses and people who are at high risk/have already lost folks/are working on the front lines are going to go ape shit and rightfully so. Make a move to protect those folks and business owners hit the roof, and rightfully so. It's turning working people against working people, which is always a winning strategy if you're a rich mother fucker. Not saying this is orchestrated by wealthy folks, but there's definitely people far detached from the everyday lives of Americans who are influencing politics right now. Which brings me back to the post I made early on in this thread: we don't have to choose between saving lives and saving businesses. We can do both, but the strings that pull the politicians ain't pulling them in that direction.
The retailers here have the shelves overflowing, so take out is booming, but bars are starving. With this next round of restrictions I don’t have a clue how so many businesses can stay a float after 9 months of economic destruction. It’s sad. They’re doing food to go, but I bet they’re digging deep to pay the rent. Given the spike, a new round of stimulus will be needed to save these small businesses. Trumps lame duck, Biden want everyone to hide, so how do these businesses survive?
It seems unfair to characterize Biden as someone who just wants people to hide. True he wants people to distance a bit more, but that’s just one component. He has also said he supports the proposed $900+ billion sitting on the table, but that said money is “only a start” for what is necessary to help people. I’d saying passing some major stimulus bills would help businesses survive, providing of course, that that stimulus goes to the right businesses, and not huge corporations who were cashing in just because they could like we saw in the sprint.
For those that are interested. I’ve taken time to reflect on my current way of discussing lockdowns and realized that I have been very calloused to peoples fear of this virus. It is a real thing and we need to be able to have open and honest discussions about it without being angry with eachother and I accept that I have stoked the fires a bunch.
This really is quite the dilemma. If people move about the virus spreads that’s a fact, and the major spikes have been Beach season, schools opening, fall holidays. I guarantee if your standing on a mountain in Montana and there’s no one around you wont get sick, but that not practical obviously. Equates to living in your basement eating baked beans watching tv. But unfortunately people need money, reality is we all have bills, we need a place to live, we need food, but that can be done online and delivered to your house or you can pick it up, they’ll put it in your car, but yiu need money to pay for it. Who calls off the mortgage companies because family’s are 3 months behind the mortgage? Does the energy company care if you haven’t paid the bill in two months, your getting notices to shut off service? We live in a country that’s really too big to shut down, so now what? It’s not fair to pin this on the politicians they don’t have and better ideals on this other than slapping band aids on. The Drs know some of the virology of this virus, but it’s new as well and they learn as the virus shifts. They almost have vaccines ready to go, one and done? Two? Will it be like the flu shot? It’s not fair poking at Trump or Biden they don’t know much more about how to help than me. How much free stuff can we dole out without completely destroying the economy? Not afford, we’re well past what we can afford, but how much before it collapses?
It is not a vocal emotional minority pushing these decisions, it is the science and the understanding that this particular virus is the epitome of nasty virulence. "Huge minority" is an interesting phrase. Close to 300,000 dead thus far is horrific and the week of Christmas promises to bring an onslaught of more widespread misery. So many people just need to wake up and listen.
ya, "huge minority" was a mistake...I meant "tiny minority" but the window of time for editing had closed by the time I recognized the mistake. However I will continue to take the position that there is no science behind indefensible decisions like those that force closure of an outdoor eating area of a neighborhood restaurant while the exact same parking lot has been modified to provide catering services at the same kinds of tables with the same spacing in the same open air to accommodate a movie crew with far more people than the restaurant. These kinds of contradictory dumbass regulatory restrictions and allowances are not based on science. Closing schools for "the safety of children" is not based on science. ad infinitum.
I'll likely never agree with you about a broad range of topics. Your mind is made up. Case closed.
The government could have implemented a paycheck guarantee and/or universal basic income for the duration of the public health emergency that allowed everyone but truly essential workers to stay home.
Essential workers could have received hazard pay as both a recognition of their risks and an incentive to keep working.
This all could have been coupled with pause on rent, mortgages and loans for businesses so that their normal overhead expenses were greatly reduced.
The government and others also could have organized free testing, treatment, health checks for the elderly, food delivery and Internet access.
We could have done that for several months; stomped out most of the virus; and started phasing in a return from quarantine with masks, social distancing and hand washing.
Economic hardship, health impacts and stress would have all been minimized; not eliminated, but reduced greatly. And we’d likely be having a pretty normal December right now with kids in school, holiday shopping and all of that — instead of a 9/11 worth of COVID deaths each and every day.
Lol and yet you think your opinions remain absolute.
Not opinions at all.
Living in my basement crushing baked beans doesn't sound all that bad, ha. But yeah, it's a cluster fuck. I wish the "tack the mortgage payments on to the end of the loan" got some more traction. I think it all read as "government hand out" too much for America to accept it (of course, no one seems to care about big government hand outs when we're subsidizing oil companies). In any event, the whole plan seemed like it made a lot of sense to me. Everyone gets one year off of paying their mortgage. If you're a landlord, then you extend the not having to pay your mortgage for a year to making your tenants not have to pay rent for a year. So whether those tenants are residents or businesses, they get a cushion. And, of course, private home owners get a breather too. And, not for nothing, as a person who could continue to pay their mortgage, I probably would. Or, if I couldn't, because my job is solid (right now at least), I'd be throwing that money right back into the economy as I'd likely be doing home improvement projects, buying materials, hiring contractors etc. Of course, the banks won't like this. But someone has to take the hit in all this. At some point, some group, somewhere, has to take the hit. Joe Shmoe seems to take the hit most of the time. I say let the banks take the hit because they are more likely to be able to absorb it. It's not like they won't be getting their money, they will. It's just that they'll get their final mortgage payment from me in 23 years instead of 22? Big fucking deal. Again, I'm not economist, so I'm sure there's all sorts of shit I'm overlooking. But I wish there could be a more robust debate about this on the federal level.
There will be even less co-operation federally until January just after Biden is inaugurated. Things will change. We are now utterly rudderless........
Damn never knew someone all knowing before.