De Garde Trades

Man - tough crowd.

Just getting the facts out. I suppose I was speaking to the folks that were thinking since it was a case limit the market would be flooded with it. I was acknowledging that my opinion is not the ONLY opinion.

Then if you take a simple (simplistic?) supply / demand view of things, wouldn't you say that it indicates the demand is higher than we (including the brewer, Trevor) thought it would be? Wouldn't you also say that it indicates the demand is higher than it was in the past since previous releases were case limits for a day and then 6 bottle limits through the weekend? Seems that's a big change in one side of the supply / demand equation.

And then you'll also notice that I conceded there is a "personal value" factor that is emotional and doesn't reflect the hyper rational perfect market that supply / demand presupposes.

So, yeah. Re-evaluate. ;-)

 

Maybe you're joking; I can't tell.

Pick it apart how u like. The value is the value regardless of limits. We never have true insight into aggregate supply and demand; just hints and proxies. When it was a case limit my argument was that isn't a great reflection of demand because it's inconvenient to get there and there isn't a huge population base nearby. Just like investing, that was based on historical info. Now that its selling out quickly this hints that demand is getting high enough that people have a powerful incentive to get out there. The statements are not inconsistent; we have new data.

Look, it seems like you think I'm saying something I'm not. I'm trying to avoid saying anything about their value. I'm not here to pump up the value. If you read above I only talk about how we assess demand. As I said at the onset, I thought de garde, with their unique high quality / low cost combo, was fodder for an interesting discussion. I seem to have been wrong or somehow derailed things since I'm on the defensive.

I'll bow out. I just hope I'll be able to get a few bottles from the release!

 

We probably do agree because I think both economics and emotion play in. This release looks a little like a watershed for De Garde; previous releases were not this crazy. So demand seems to have hit a new high. I didn't necessarily expect that; I was telling friends "last release there were still bottles on saturday, so I'm not worried that I'm driving down friday." I was simply wrong there. That's the economics side. The emotion side will certainly play a role. People that expected a case and got 3 will now see them as far more valuable than (probably) economics would really call for. At least for a few weeks ... until a new big release elsewhere becomes the shiny object and traders are no longer interested in this release. That encourages, as I've called it elsewhere, the "strike while the iron is hot" mentality on both sides. People with bottles will want to milk value, people without will think they'll die if they don't pour this rare elixir down their thirsty gullet. Emotionally things are automatically better when you can't have them so selling out in an hour is way better than lasting until Saturday.

The new flavor is Forbidden Fruit Bu.

Word has it that a LOT of folks in line were not locals which is also a newish development. Hired mules and people that drove up ... from LA. Yeah.