Discussion regarding the changes to M in beer lists

Talk Discussion in 'BeerAdvocate Talk' started by markdrinksbeer, Nov 4, 2014.

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  1. markdrinksbeer

    markdrinksbeer Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2013 Massachusetts

    Was hoping to engaged in coversation here regarding the recent changes to M, and perhaps get further clarification.

    My understanding on how the M is figured, is that it is calculated by finding the average number of ratings for all beers in the dataset (would top 250 not include ever single beer that is listed?)

    Using simpler numbers (say for beers in a single state), there are 10,000 total ratings of 200 beers, that would give a value for M at 50?

    Is this correct? I was hoping to get a better understanding of what the "dataset" actually is.
     
  2. Todd

    Todd Founder (13,518) Aug 23, 1996 Finland
    STAFF Mod Team Society Pooh-Bah

    We don't include beers with zero ratings in the average. Retired beers are also excluded.
     
  3. markdrinksbeer

    markdrinksbeer Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2013 Massachusetts

    Would there be consideration to exclude beers with very few ratings (say, anything less than 10?)
    My history dealing with statistics leads me to think that when you have beer ranging from just a couple of ratings, up to beers with 5,000+ ratings, using the Mean as an average isn't the best solution, as the extremes of both ends prevent an accurate "average".

    Would using the Median average give a higher number (perhaps more accurate average) for the M?
     
  4. jrnyc

    jrnyc Grand Pooh-Bah (3,012) Mar 21, 2010 New York
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I am not a mathematician, so can someone explain to me how Other Half All Green Everything has a 4.42 with 83 ratings on the Other Half page but on the top New York beers it only has a 4.07 with the same 83 ratings.
     
  5. markdrinksbeer

    markdrinksbeer Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2013 Massachusetts


    Just like with all "top" lists (such as the new york beers), there is a formula that calculates that score.

    For Top New York Beers:

    How was this list calculated?

    Lists are generated using a Bayesian estimate that pulls data from millions of BeerAdvocate user ratings and normalizes scores based on the number of ratings for each beer.

    The general statistical formula is:
    weighted rank (WR) = (v ÷ (v+m)) × R + (m ÷ (v+m)) × C
    R = average (mean) rating for the beer = (Rating)
    v = number of ratings for the beer = (votes)
    m = minimum ratings required to be considered (currently 79)
    = (the average number of ratings across the dataset)
    C = the mean rating across the dataset (currently 3.7)
     
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  6. jrnyc

    jrnyc Grand Pooh-Bah (3,012) Mar 21, 2010 New York
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Thanks, what I don't understand how the same exact beer can have different ratings in a different list. Is AGE a 4.42 or a 4.07? Why would the score change just because it is in a different list? If there was a separate list for NorthEast beers, would it then have a 3rd score? On the surface it just doesn't make sense to me.
     
  7. markdrinksbeer

    markdrinksbeer Initiate (0) Nov 14, 2013 Massachusetts

    Some of the variables in the formula change:
    M= minimum ratings required (this changes with each "top" list, as recently explained by Todd here:
    http://www.beeradvocate.com/communi...mum-ratings-required-to-be-considered.222437/
    C=the mean rating across that particular "top" list. For example, the mean rating for New york is 3.7. For another list, it could be higher or lower, thus changing the final calculated score based on the formula.
     
  8. drtth

    drtth Initiate (0) Nov 25, 2007 Pennsylvania
    In Memoriam

    Just think, "Compared to what?" While the formula is the same for each list, the numbers change because of the rest of the beers it is being compared to.

    Edit: Without glossing over too many details think of a somewhat comparable example. You have a particular height on an absolute scale that is pretty fixed. However, compared to the height of all people aged 10 or less you are probably quite tall and would be well above average. Compared to the height of all professional basketball players you are probably quite short and would be well below average. In neither case would your actual height change but on a comparative scale it would change a lot depending on which group you are compared to. The formula adjusts the ratings so they are roughly on the same scale as the group being compared to and depending on which group you are being compared to.
     
    #8 drtth, Nov 4, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2014
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  9. drtth

    drtth Initiate (0) Nov 25, 2007 Pennsylvania
    In Memoriam

    Basically you've got the right idea. The dataset in question changes depending on the list. If you look at the top 250 a beer compares to all ratings of all beers. If the beer is brewed in MA and you look at the MA list the dataset is all the ratings of the beers produced in MA. If the list were NorthEast Region beers the dataset would be the ratings of the beers brewed in any NorthEast state.
     
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