"Everybody’s opening a brewery..."

I think a lot more brewers in the US are figuring out how to use Citra and other high end hops to make high quality Imperial IPAs. Locally, I see Flying Dog making many great strides in the last 2 years in the single hop 2x IPA market share out there. At some point soon I think the few Pliny, Hopslam, Heady's of the world class caliber will have close competition by many brewers around the country. Treading very carefully in expansion is smart, since consumers will quickly shift to the next big thing or have a lot of high-quality choices to spread their buying amongst versus chasing trucks or standing in line at world class breweries for release. Or you could expand, sell your product and cash out of business before the retraction occurs, which it will someday. When? Who knows..plenty of posts on that subject already.

 

Or the other thing you noticed about the article is that a huge percentage of their production goes to just supporting their own brewpubs. I think that those solidifying their local base will fine but those relying on the being the newest biggest thing will have issues. Also I think as long as they focus on the quality of the beer they have a good chance but if they are going for marketing then they will be in trouble in the long run

 

Honestly, I believe there is still plenty of room for growth in the marketplace. There are a lot of disparities in brewery presence in rural areas all over the country that still have yet to be filled. As far as craft beer prosperity, the battle should be less centered on setting each other apart in the market and more centered on spreading approachable, gateway beers to unserved areas.

If all these areas pop up small, local breweries and brewpubs serve the immediate area, more effectively on-site on tap, then I think America will realize the dream of seeing a true beer nation. 6k, 8k breweries nationwide, a local brewer to every town that draws a good blue collar, relaxed, social atmosphere where beer can serve its' purpose as a social lubricant is the goal, at least to me, for the industry.

 

If they aren't concerned about it, they should be.

There are some breweries that will have no problem with continued success. A good number, actually. I think Russian River has the right idea in that they've generally stayed territorial and haven't branched out too far. When I go to my local stores, there are three types of products that move well:

Mass produced In-Bev/Miller-Coors products.
Local breweries with decent reputations.
Breweries from outside the region with impeccable reputations.

If you're a local brewery without even a decent reputation, or a national "craft brewery" with a less than impeccable reputation, you're going to find yourself in very muddy water sooner rather than later.

When I talk about this "reputation," I'm not exactly talking about reputation on BA. I'm talking about a perceived reputation which includes breweries like the Magic Hats of the world.

Moral of the story is not to get too big for your britches. I see a lot of breweries out there who will be coming apart at the seams.

 

Local brewers serving to a local town will always struggle to win the blue collar beer drinking crowd until they can sell they're beers for the same or cheaper than BMC in the local town. Sure they can win over the hipster and affluent beer drinking crowd that wants to be part of a movement, but for the lower income brackets of blue coller, price point wins. Darn distributors profit cuts always get in the way of local beers not being able to sell cheap locally. I wish we could cut out the middle man.

 

Thats the thing though. If smaller breweries would open up with focus on a solid lineup of approachable beers, then they would be able to lower their price point. 10 bbl of a 4.0% mildly hopped blonde or red ale can be sold at half the price of a 7.5% aggressively hopped IPA (less malt, hops, time, etc). An on premise brewery/brewpub can sell such beers for $3.50/ pint, which is very much competitive with macro, and still turn a good profit. The problem is a lot of breweries are trying to set themselves apart in the marketplace by doing fruit-infused berliner weisses, etc. that demand a high cost that turns the unserved market away and back to BMC. Also, on premise breweries I think often neglect the importance of atmosphere in terms of repeat customers.

Middle man can play a beneficial part too. I've worked at and seen smaller breweries and startups that wouldn't have enough time in the week even to deliver their beer to 50+ accounts, so for them the distributor was well worth the profit lost.

 

articles like this just reinforce the idea of supporting your local breweries. Seriously, why pay top dollar for craft beers transported from the other side of the country when you can support the local guys and get fresh beer. the shelf space thing won't be a problem if every bottle shop in the country doesnt carry the same selection.

 

A lot of newer breweries are passion-fueled ventures that don't always make decisions on sound business reasoning. They start out with a vision of opening a brewery, which they obviously succeed at. But then what? Should they stay local and build a strong following? Or build up massive debt to expand into 15 markets and hire sales reps to help push their product? At that point, you can't just spin the bottle and hope for the best.

I work for a CA distributor and see several of our smaller, CA-local brewers are sending us all these experimental beers that rarely end up as a quality product. Often times, they fail to understand that these experimental beers are only made possible by selling larger quantities of their consistent, core beers. Now the shelves are stocked with low-rated one-offs, we're out of stock on their core items, and their reputation for quality is damaged.

 

Yes, if there were local beers that were tasty (regardless of style) for $3.50 a pint, I think you are right, that it could win over the masses in a local community (low, middle, affluent patrons). I haven't really found any yet though in my area of Maryland. Flying Dog sometimes may be $5 or $6 a pint in a tavern/restaurant/bar where other craft offerings are a dollar or 2 more. BMC's are usually s $2-$3 most any bar/tavern in the area so that is where the blue collar crowd will continue to support their beer drinking purchases.

 

If you live in San Diego or Portland fine, but most of us don't. I've always said "drink best" instead of "drink local", unless of course you're in the lucky minority where local = best. A fresh, local but mediocre IPA is not going to get my dollars when I can get Stone, Ballast Point, Firestone Walker, Green Flash, Odell, and Bell's for very reasonable prices (sometimes identical price to my local sixpacks).

 

Because if they are better for my money I will pay, regardless of where they're from. Locavorism is a very strange disorder, particularly beer locavorism.

 

You beat me to the same point.

Honestly I think the "buy local" is generalized far too often. Not everyone lives somewhere with great beers, yet many of us have access to great beers at the bottle shops.

 

Russian River is one of the last breweries that has to worry about this.

Frankly I'm disappointed, annoyed maybe, by their intentionally slow growth and expansion. But hey, it's their business.

 

I'd love to buy you a beer sometime, sir.

 

I wish I could get Russian River, Bells or Founders in Maryland. That's a lot of world class beers I don't have access to locally. Luckily, I have a BA friend that works down in Virginia and he "bootlegs" back Bells and Founders for us frequently to share. I like to call him "Tickle"! :-)

 

I respect the hell out of RRBC that LIFESTYLE & LIVING WITHIN THEIR MEANS is more important than the almighty dollar, however; agreed that they are the last brewery that has to worry about their product NOT flying off the shelves no matter what market they are in...

They could 100% strike while "the iron is hot" and not suffer one freaking bit. Then again I LOVE how Vinnie won't compromise control of his own product.

 

It's strange that people want to support their local businesses and economy?

Funny, I don't find that to be strange at all.

 

The sky is falling to many beers to choose from!