For Many Craft Breweries, the Apocalypse is Now

The horror

 

These stories are quickly becoming the most tiresome trend in beer journalism for me. Closures still aren't even outpacing openings and craft volume sold isn't changing in ways that are radically different than the total beer market.

In this particular story they point to Metropolitan in Chicago. But that brewery collapsed under the weight of an extended, unresolved conflict with their landlord that resulted in a massive debt and ongoing legal cost burden. That's not a result of the beer market. That's an unfortunate circumstance unique to that particular brewery.

 

I await with bated breath Paste's upcoming article "The Top 100 Poorly-Run / Subpar Brewers That Deserve to Go Under, Ranked."

 

I would totally click that clickbait.

 

Spoiler Alert: It's weighted heavily toward brewers that refuse to send them free beer for their review articles.

 

I think the “bubble is gonna burst” predictors started on our forums as far back as 2016-2017 (maybe earlier?) timeframe when many craft beer geeks were starting to feel overwhelmed with how possibly they could support their beloved historical craft brewery options along with the surge in so many new/local breweries popping up everywhere. One thing I’ve learned and noticed in economics over the decades of my adult life is that the crashes usually take along longer to become reality than the events that were the primary factors that cause them. Probably for the last 7+ years the local craft brewing industry /scene has primarily been proped up on a house of cards of mostly non-craft beer drinker patrons who are just visiting the establishments for “it’s the place to be” or entertainment reasons and not for love of the taste of the beers being offered. Eventually these people will move on to a new place to hang out as most already stopped drinking the beers from the local establishments and opted for seltzers, NA options, and other beer like concoctions that barely resemble existing or even experimental true-beer styles. And yes the Gen Z seems to not be nearly as into beer as past generations as well. Not sure the pricing thing has as much a hit as people think because if the poor Gen Z kids can afford the $15 coctails/mixed drinks, why wouldn’t they pay for a $9 beer with the same ABV per serving ?

 

Beer brewing is a labor and capital intensive business. New breweries mean more capacity. It seems the market isn't expanding, so something must give. I'd guess the craft brewing industry is operating far below capacity. That means economic stress and companies shrinking and/or going out of business. It's not apocalyptic, it's the free market operating in a macroscopically predictable, but microscopically chaotic, way.