Haven't seen a good measurement/analysis thread in a while.

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by tewaris, Jul 19, 2012.

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  1. tewaris

    tewaris Initiate (0) Jul 14, 2009 Minnesota

    I recall some really good threads in the old forums over an year or two. E.g.:

    * nickd717's analysis of homerism (Interesting and overdue it seems :wink:).
    * His initiative to create a distribution database that is one of the most useful tools for traders at the moment and the data source for seekabrew (I deem it at least as useful as having a Fedex/UPS account).
    * nathanjohnson's measurement of Dark Lord's FG.
    * Arbitrator's analysis of the distribution of rAvg by style.

    So someone got something like that in the works?

    Ideas?

    Did I miss a similar but recent thread?
     
  2. VncentLIFE

    VncentLIFE Initiate (0) Feb 16, 2011 North Carolina

    I usually pass over those because theres alot of science words that my PE and Health degree didnt teach me. Plus big words and me drinking really dont mix.
     
    ChanChan likes this.
  3. stupac2

    stupac2 Pooh-Bah (2,031) Feb 22, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah

    I would love to do lots of things like those, the problem is that the time it would take to harvest the data from BA is astronomical. If there were some way to click a button and get a CSV of the raw data for a beer then it would be worth doing, but as it stands it just isn't.
     
  4. tewaris

    tewaris Initiate (0) Jul 14, 2009 Minnesota

    Yup, no doubt about that. If data is easily accessible, it can provide very good insight into this community, not to mention the ease with which arguments could be potentially settled.
     
  5. stupac2

    stupac2 Pooh-Bah (2,031) Feb 22, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah

    Pfft, have you looked at our national discourse lately? Data doesn't mean anything to most people.
     
  6. mattbk

    mattbk Savant (1,111) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    ive got a good one. forgive me if someone just did a post on brewer lot-to-lot variation.

    i like to see what other people rate for beers that i like. two of my favorite beers (that arent typical "BA" beers for lack of a better term) are Sam Noble Pils and Wolaver's Oatmeal Stout.

    in looking through reviews, i find a lot of variation in likes/dislikes for these beers... but here's the thing. the likes/dislikes come in strings.

    take the Oatmeal Stout: http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/119/14172

    here are avg scores for this beer over time periods:

    10/15/11 - 11/17/11: 4.28
    11/24/11 - 12/21/11: 3.83
    12/25/11 - 1/18/12: 4.22
    1/21/12 - 2/16/12: 3.74
    2/22/12 - 3/16/12: 4.25
    3/25/12 - 5/1/12: 3.45

    in the high periods, there were no scores below a 4. in the low periods there were no scores ABOVE a 4. i have a really nice graph of this which i cant figure out how to get posted up here.

    the two things I get from this: a) it takes Wolaver's about four weeks to sell a batch of this beer from fall until spring; b) they seem to be having some trouble with lot-to-lot consistency. some lots are world-class, some are barely above average.

    my guess is you could find this trend for several brewers, and it speaks to the difficulty in producing craft beer consistently from batch to batch. we talk about great beers, and great breweries, but it is easier said than done to make that great beer great in every single batch. consistentcy is what makes a great brewery truly great.

    i think this is valid data... or did i just make it all up? talk amongst yourselves.
     
    tewaris likes this.
  7. stupac2

    stupac2 Pooh-Bah (2,031) Feb 22, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah

    What are the variances on those numbers? It could easily be statistical noise if your sigma is like 0.5 (which is high, but depending on review #'s possible).
     
  8. mattbk

    mattbk Savant (1,111) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    average stdev for each group (except the last one which had a 4, 3.05, and 2.65 rating) was 0.17, which means there's about 3SDs between each grouping. i tested this using software i have and it shows the two groups are statistically different. this cant be noise.
     
  9. Orca

    Orca Grand Pooh-Bah (4,710) Sep 18, 2010 Washington
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    You don't also happen to have software that shaves the leftover fractions of a cent off of every transaction and then deposits that money into a secret bank account, do you?
     
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  10. mattbk

    mattbk Savant (1,111) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    i do... but i usually forget about some small detail that screws everything up too. no talent ass clown.
     
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  11. Reaper16

    Reaper16 Savant (1,165) Oct 3, 2008 Alabama

    I wonder how much of that is reviewers having doubts about their own ability to review for themselves. If people see that the last 10 reviews or more are all in a similar range, then the reviewer might be thinking that range is what the beer "is supposed to be" reviewed at. So their review puts the beer at the same range as the others so as to appear knowledgeable via consensus.
     
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  12. mattbk

    mattbk Savant (1,111) Dec 12, 2011 New York

    maybe - except the number of days between switches from good to bad (and back) are too specific. days between cycles are: 40, 31, 27, 32, 32. the phenemenon youre describing would show switching more randomized.
     
  13. PaulQuinn

    PaulQuinn Initiate (0) May 27, 2011 Canada (BC)

    Wouldn't that phenomenon actually prevent any switching at all? If everybody is following the average, or the last few reviews, the averages would never change and the last reviews would always be similar. Unless of course you'd have for a while mostly people not trying to be the same as the previous and then mostly people trying and so on, but that would be too random to make a difference.
     
  14. Mavajo

    Mavajo Initiate (0) Feb 10, 2007 Georgia

    Is nickd still around?
     
  15. otispdriftwood

    otispdriftwood Initiate (0) Dec 9, 2011 Colorado

    I disagree. It's accurate data that doesn't mean anything to most people.
     
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