How about a little "What if?" game .....

None of those breweries have proven themselves in anything close to a national role. Combining would be a recipe for failure on a scale we haven't seen before.

Need something with a large appeal to make it too. Dessert stouts, sours and IPAs aren't going to make a national success.

 

Already some models of this I think; Victory/Southern Tier, Cigar City/Oskar Blues/Perrin, Duvel/Omnegang/Firestone Walker/Boulevard, off the top of my head.

 

I mean...I don't see why those regionality-based breweries would somehow all invest basically everything they've built on building something that a lot of them are trying to avoid.

I know for sure FFF, 18th Street, and Pipeworks thrive off of their locale and cult followings. And they're doing just fine off of what they are currently doing.

If the act of collaborating as a "response" to conglomeration, I don't think the power could override the big guys. As sad as it is to think, it would be like throwing pebbles at a giant.

In a great utopia, all things handmade and created with love, passion, and drive would be the majority of goods bought and consumed. But it is an unlikely situation right now.

 

Most of the top craft Brewers by volume aren't that IPA heavy.

Also likely zero of the beers you listed going national would work because they couldn't source the ingredients and shelf stability is paramount. Not to mention that segment of craft in general declining.

I mean was this an exercise in pretending or were we supposed to take it seriously? If the former then yeah bro that would totally work!

 

If, IF, the buy-outs of smaller breweries continue, the "medium-large" breweries might be forced into a version of CBA. If @Sweatshirt can't see the combined buying power of, say, Deschutes, Sierra Nevada, Troegs, Smuttynose, New Glarus, and whatever regionals anyone would like to add in, and thinks they would have issues sourcing stuff, he isn't paying attention.

Already, some of the very smaller breweries around me are combing, stealthily, to buy into hop contracts. One brewery alone couldn't do it, but, 5 of them combined, ordering under one breweries name? Yeah, that is happening.

 

You mentioned expanded capacity (which would be key to the above) in your first post but didn't explain how that would come about (unless I missed it).

 

Why emulate or follow the model you have despised? The idea is that beer is better local. Your trading habits prove that excitement for beer is real and not just because of a collector mentality. You can fault the sellouts but not as much as you would like. Vote with your wallet and keep beer small and in your town. Sustaining local farms, the environment and providing employment.

 

Define "combine forces". Are you imagining a mega-merger where it would be one company with multiple breweries, combined lineup, and one distribution channel? Or more of an association where they're all friendly and collaborating, but still separate and competing? Better chance of the latter, but extremely unlikely.

Is the question is more of "what would that do to the craft industry in a fantasy world where all of the barriers were gone"? Sure - you can imagine nationwide distribution of the best beers ever, each containing unicorns, egos put aside, etc. Then AB/InBev would go after them - buy or bully.

 

Completely improbable. The only reason you have the few "super regional" players (I would argue SN and BBC are national) is expansion pre-super boom. I suspect Stone and Green Flash would reconsider their move it they could. Lagunitas seems to be the one exception that did it pre-acquistion and did it well.

To put that number of relatively small brewers together and try to brew and market and DISTRIBUTE nationally--not a chance.

 

I think a company made up of Pigeon Hill, Bluebird, Crow Peak, Duck Rabbit, Black Swan, Eagle Rock, Hawkshead, and Pelican breweries could take flight and swoop into national prominence, perhaps even overtaking Goose Island.

 

Or lay an egg

 

The biggest problem with breweries going regional or even growing outside a region is maintaining quality while dramatically increasing production. It's not easy I would imagine to do this. We've all seen breweries grow beyond their ability to maintain the quality. This is why SN so unique, you can buy their stuff everywhere, gas stations, food stores, beer stores, and they make almost across the board great beers in vast quantities. That's not easy at all, and it turns over too, their beers are very popular.

 

The sensible expansion approach is breaking down what you needed to do to scale up, and doing it as a project rather than just letting it happen. Breweries need to be methodical to scale brewing while preserving methods, recipe, and quality. Some breweries might let expansion demand drive production in a panic mode, hurting quality. I expect SN followed a plan.

 

Does ant one really think there is going to be enough growth in the craft beer market to support that many more national brands? If not than who is going to buy all that beer? Where is anyone going to find shelf space for that many beers.

 

I don't think super regional would work right now.

In some sense, isn't this happening with funkworks, 21st amendment, and Brooklyn? That's more of a 3 region partnership. That's an easier sell than 4 breweries from the same state trying to enter a new distribution channel.

I still think the wave of the future is contract/franchise breweries. Imagine if TH branched out to five other states and had five individual pubs.
We have ABV opening up in charlotte. Green flash in NE and MT in Portland. Shipping and moving beer long distances is becoming a thing of the past. Heck Guinness will have a brewery in MD soon too.

If anything, if all these smaller players wanted to join together, they would likely have to use one facility and contract brew everything. Then it becomes a licensing and trademark ordeal. Ab was smart going for a brewery in each general region. I don't know if they will try to acquire two or three in say Phoenix or Seattle.

The most feasible option would be to find a distributor interested in say 10 regional brands and he/she would send them to one or two specific restaurants or beer bars. There would be more equal footing there. That's the only way I'd see it work and I don't know if that's even worth the time or money.