Decided to start a separate thread to discuss this. In the MA brewery closures thread the topic naturally drifted towards, "Is the bubble bursting in MA for craft breweries?". I always prefer numbers to anecdotal data, and I found this article. Solid quick read, some interesting tidbits, including what will happen to the CBC mural. https://www.wbur.org/news/2024/12/20/massachusetts-craft-beer-brewery-closures-mergers-newsletter Main takeaway... By the numbers: From 2016 to 2023, Massachusetts averaged over 24 openings and nine closings per year, according to the brewer’s guild. But in 2024, the state had 17 openings and 15 closures. Meanwhile at the national level, 2024 saw brewery closures outpace openings for the first time in two decades. This still isn't a bubble bursting in my opinion. We're not seeing rapid growth followed by a rapid decline. We're seeing a market steady and correct itself. 2023 numbers vs 2024 (from what I could cobble together using my Google-Fu for 2023). 2023: **19 openings, 9 closings 2024: **17 openings, 15 closings The gap is slowly closing, but this isn't a rapid decline. Can you open a brewery anywhere with a tap list of mostly mediocre New England IPAs in a warehouse with some cornhole and a food truck and be successful overnight? No. Are we going to go back to 2004 with barely any breweries within a few miles of where you live? No. **One item to note, as far as I could tell, the openings don't count satellite locations for breweries either.
The problem I’ve seen is the increase in other RTD type drinks like seltzers, high noon types and sun cruiser type drinks. Craft has definitely fallen off in some places due to these types. Also N/A beers are also crushing it in sales. Honestly a lot of people are concerned with their wallets because a 4 pack costing $20 plus can get you drunk the same way that a 12 pack of vodka seltzers can for the same price - perceived value of the 12 pack is higher - more beers/alcoholic beverages and same result = more value in some people’s eyes
Two things I feel like have contributed to this bubble being burst: 1.) Four packs. They've somehow convinced us to pay more for less beer. I had a discussion recently about how we used to pay $8.99 for Stone IPAs and we thought it was a fortune -- because it was back then. Now, instead of 72 oz of beer in six bottles, we're getting 64 oz in four can for $19.99. Its BS. 2.) NEIPA. I know, I know, it sounds like I'm being a hater, but these beers being SO popular and demanding so much shelf space has created a bad culture of beer that can be mediocre, but it's "hazy" and 8.4% so it's gotta be tried. It's about making money, I get it. I'm sure there are good ones, but ... I don't know. There are a lot of people -- like me -- that would happily rather spend those $30 on a bottle of Titos or two $15 bottles of wine or canned cocktails. So maybe it's economics. Maybe it's a saturated market. Maybe it's cell phone cameras, I don't really know. All I know is that Saturday morning I was at the market grabbing avocados (they're trash here, btw, but that's a different thread), browsed the beer section, left empty-handed. Went across the street to a beer store, and left uninspired and empty handed. I had to run an errand later in the day, popped into another beer store (basically my third of the day), and gave up. Grabbed Cutwater margaritas and enjoyed those. I miss Stone in Escondido before everything was sold and I could get growlers and Arrogant Bastard was still a thing. Now I'm thirsty and I know there's nothing in the fridge.
Agree on all above. Also read your post about missing Stone Escondido. Since we’re still on vaca and I had to run into the supermarket I peaked to see if could find a fresh Stone IPA. Which I did, dated 11/24. Absolutely delicious still. Also remembered I have some old photos from the Escondido brewery that I believe are around 2006? Loved visiting there when staying with my friends in Mission/PB and La Jolla for surf trips. Someone always would offer to drive/dd guests which was killer. You made my night! The irony of that fucking shirt I’m wearing as I chug west coast beer.
Well now I'm on a total mission to find 11/24 Stone IPA. And by "mission" I mean I'll check the date at whatever one store I go to and then give up if it's not fresh. Man, the old Escondido spot. The food was good too. I remember their BLT being great. Am I imagining a killer guest beer list at the restaurant too? I feel like a picture of an old Stone/guest beer list would blow some socks off with the heavy hitters. Anyway, yeah it feels different now. I liken it to rap, actually. Back when rap began, it needed to be good. People saw it as a fad. You had to make an album songs 1-12 being perfect. Then it kind of devolved into "have one banger and you're good." That's my analogy for beer. Pizza Port, Stone, Ballast Point, AleSmith (my personal fave) had to be on point. All of them. Now it's just like "make an alright hazy IPA and a bunch of 45 year old white dudes will fill their suitcases with them." There are some spots that are great, but fuckkkk I miss a good west coast IPA. Or a Belgian IPA whatever happened to those?
I should be more specific, that the date was technically 11/14/24. But that’s a difference of days. Was just pumped it was 11/2024. Unheard of fresh around here.
High noon is surprisingly expensive. I think I paid like $20 for a sixer of skinny cans of it a few months ago. And at venues, forget about it. Not to stereotype but feels like the know they can charge whatever for it and dudes are gonna have to pay for it for their girlfriends. Maybe they’re using the finest quality of vodka and I don’t know it.
They do know that at least in many instances, the young impressionable dudes will buy it since they follow what the ladies want and do. Which ain’t 8% DIPA.
Was up in Portland over New Years and was talking to Allison at Thirsty Pig. She said that all the brewers she talks to are seeing .05% growth, if that. She suspects this will be a tough year. Not sure how that relates to MA, but thought it intersting
