Price increases. Is this the bubble buster?

Budget buster = bubble buster

Simply put raising prices means I buy less, equaling slowdown of bubble, it was/is bound to happen

Aimho

 

While I agree with the budget issue, I feel market saturation is going to be the killer. There are so many new breweries that have been making it into the metro area, and I haven't tried one. Jester king? Nope. Still water, had a single. That brewery that has their saisons numbered, nope. Clown shoes? One bottle. On the other hand I buy the hell out of the breweries I like. Oskar blues, firestone, and odell are staples in my fridge. I'm not sure how others shop, but I feel like there's just too much beer on the shelf, and it isn't worth the risk of picking up something nasty and regretting not getting some ten fidy instead.
Edit, so I guess I am saying its a market saturation of sub par expensive beer that's gonna kill it.

 

I agree that pricing will be the bubble buster. It makes sense for BMC to raise the prices on their beer as people are begining to associate high prices with "the good beer." I don't think that will help them in the long run though because if they nudge you into a higher price point you are bound to discover the "real" good beer.

 

Like most BAs, although I like to think I have a mind to rival some of the very best economists, I don't.

That said - I don't see any "bubble burst", possibly just a little bit of a slowdown. I think that with more and more new breweries, the crappier ones are going to have to step up their game or close their doors - that's only a good thing for us beer geeks. Re: price increases - I'm not overly concerned. If breweries hike up prices too much - people won't buy the beers (I'm talking about the "regular" beers; for the "special/rare" releases, they are and will continue to be a headache no matter how a brewery approaches it).

 

This. I will use Nugget Nectar as a current example of a semi regular beer. Years back Nectar was 40$ a case and when it was in season stores would receive from 2 cases to a dozen or so cases during the year and it was all the rave, good beer great price and it moved. Today Nugget Nectar is 50$ a case and the average delivery seemed to be a pallet+ this time around. I know for a fact there will be dozens of old Nectar cases come april/march(did Troegs sell enough to cover this loss?..probably)

But on the other hand Troegs can sell splinter gold or BA Troegenator for high prices because a lot of the people that chase and drink only rare beer have the mentality to drink the rare stuff they want, price be damned.

If anything bursts its going to happen so slowly it will be comical.

 

A combination of price increases, sub-par beer, and market saturation. There are already too many breweries making sub-par beer and selling it for premium prices. Throw any piece of shit in a barrel and charge $15 a bottle and it will sell. The shitty breweries will die off and the good ones will remain. It's time to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

Yes, with the current lack of demand for beers, pricing is surely going to cause a crash.

 

Wait, you're complaining about Nugget Nectar going up $0.41 per bottle over a number of years? Yikes

 

In the strictest sense of the term, there isn't really a craft beer "bubble", which means that economic transactions on a given product type are occurring at an unsustainable price and/or rate--i.e., people are speculating on the product type.

That doesn't seem to be happening with craft beer because ultimately, it's still a niche product. So I'm not sure if we can have the bubble "burst", so to speak.

But in the spirit of the question, which seems to be getting at the sheer speed with which new breweries continue to open (could be considered a bubble I suppose, with potential brewers speculating on their ability to sell product), I think the ultimate downfall will be related to resources, product quality and/or market saturation, all of which are related. Lack of raw resources can harm product quality, and the saturation level of a given product is inherently tied to quality, as the market can grow if there are more and more high-quality options, but will shrink if the options are sub-standard.

I agree with @rollom that price increases isn't really a big issue, because for all the teeth gnashing that takes place on this site about "gouging" or "overpaying" for beer, there is clearly a large chunk of the craft beer customer segment that is more than willing to pay a bit higher prices for quality or rare beers. Given how much people mention $12 four-packs as unacceptable and my comparative willingness to buy beers at that price if they are good, apparently I'm one of those willing consumers. But I think people will find that prices are going to continue moving in that direction, and I think MOST people aren't going to significantly change their purchase habits--they'll just complain about it a bit.

 

I'm mostly worried about buyouts and their result on quality. I guess Goose Island will be a good benchmark.. And hopefully Duvel Moortgat doesn't changing anything about Boulevard.

 

I'm no economist/marketer either, but I think while prices will have an influence, they may be self-correcting - market forces and all that. The special releases and other things people salivate over - seems to me they will sell no matter what. Special Release XYZ comes out, everybody spends days tracking it down, pays whatever, then talks about how they got "gouged" - I don't see that changing. Prices on "every day" beers would have more impact, but people can grumble all they want about prices - if "we" pay, they won't change. It will be interesting to see what happens to Spencer Abbey (for example) - talking to a couple store managers they said the initial shipment sold through (and there was much tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth over the price IIRC) but the second shipment is essentially sitting on shelf. Will the response be a lowering of the price, or will the monks lose out on their investment?

My opinion is that the bigger impact is lousy beer from the bandwagon jumpers. We've all seen breweries opened up by people with no knowledge and minimal skill just to jump on the phenomenon. As more knowledgeable consumers, our band of merry persons figures this out pretty quick. But the casual consumer or newbies might be a different story and we get guilt by association. Someone tries beer from a few of the sub-par breweries in a row and decides to give up paying more money for a less than satisfactory experience. Not every beer drinker gets on BA or other websites to do homework before buying beer. I suppose it could work backwards too - that the "uninitiated" actually like some of the junk that's out there...

Really though - if you combine pricing, "wannabe" breweries, and the sheer number of beers on the shelves? That seems the real threat - multiple factors combined. Maybe not a "burst" of the mythical bubble, but seems there will be some slow deflation. Taken singly, the factors in the poll may not have a significant impact, but combine a few of them? Maybe not disastrous effects, but a slow "correction".

 

I buy by the case so that $0.41c per bottle hike costs me 10$ straight up.

When I can get Lagunitas Imperial Red from cali cheaper I begin to wonder..

 

ourselves...

but I am not worried.. I always find good drink.

 

Pricing is the one thing that stops me from buying more craft. I think market saturation will hurt a lot too. It's going to become harder for new breweries to make a name for themselves when there are already so many beers on the market.

 

I don't buy BMC and really their not the problem, mainly because I don't think they really compete with craft. The real problem is breweries like The Bruery, FFF, Hoppin Frog, and others who don't understand what reasonable prices are and crazed consumers who buy their beer anyways at unreasonable prices. I'm hoping with new breweries springing up all the time, a newcomer will come in and undercut all their products and they will be forced to lower their prices or go out of business.

 

I went with subpar beer. Nothing like a syrupy stout to confirm to BMC drinkers that craft beer is just concetrated coca-cola. also the IPA thing. nothing like an overly bitter sugar bomb to confirm to BMC drinkers that craft beer is simply pretentious.

 

Saturation in market combined with decrease/lack of substantial enough profits by many small brewery owners that are starting up will cause many to close up doors on their attempt to make a buck in the craft boom and go back to their old day jobs.

 

Sub par beers combined with saturation. Too many breweries think they're the next DFH and they don't have Sam's skill, palate, or personality to back it up.
At the same time, I think the absolute biggest threat is saturation. I can't tell you how many beers I see people flipping out over only to buy once and never touch 'em again. That's one thing for seasonals and crazy one-offs, but there are lots of normal beers that people go nuts over only to never drink again. Many of them are good or even excellent beers, but when there are 1,000 other options that's a tough sell.

 

Quality combined with pricing will would be my fear. Saturation? Hasn't reached my neck of the woods, maybe it never will by the time this trend could hit on a national scale.

I do see some signs that a repeat of the late 90s may happen. The only thing giving me heart, most of the up & comers are more interested in making a splash locally, versus conquering the world.