Price increases. Is this the bubble buster?

The craft beer bubble!! Oh nooooo!

Any day...week...month...year now!

 

I see your point about by-the-minute beer releases. Keep in mind this is a website detailing all releases all over the country, so it's not like your local gets hundreds of new releases a day (at least mine doesn't).

Also, this isn't oranges to oranges, but you see the same thing in the wine and liquor aisles. Tons of options by style, region, age, etc. Prices among wine and liquor are pretty stable as well.

I do agree that there is a significant portion of the population that will stick with their regulars or what they know of already. I think there is enough interest in non-BMC products to sustain the small percent of the beer market.

 

I don't think many are marketing on the grounds that they are not BMC and so must be good. At least I've not much of that. In those cases where they seem to be taking the approach that "craft is necessarily good," its more a case of lack of ability to self critique and learn from customer feedback. Some seem to have an assumption that folks will just accept anything. So perhaps that’s what you are seeing as "we're not BMC so we must be good?"

A more likely instance of "not-so-strong" around here is a poor business plan/business model or being quite taken with themselves and unreceptive to constructive criticism, or both.

 

The other thing is BMC is losing ground to craft everyday!!!!!!!

 

Price will be the determining factor around here, plain and simple. Mainly because if you compared prices of beer in Oklahoma to prices in Missouri, Texas and Kansas you would find that 90-95% of the time it's going to be 10-20% more in Oklahoma whether you're buying beer or liquor. Don't have to worry about over saturation because of the number of brewers that can't or won't distribute to Oklahoma because of distribution and/or liquor laws. Oh well, if prices get too fucking crazy I can always go back to what I drank before craft beer.

 

It isn't the BMC drinker who will be turned off, because chances are they'll never give craft beer a try in the first place. But, what subpar beer will do is stop craft drinkers from branching out and trying new beers and new breweries. I myself am getting to the point where I've been burned a few too many times buying a $14 sixer of something I've never tried that ends up being average to poor. Once that happens a few times, you start sticking with what you know and the new stuff stays on the shelves. So I guess that's a combination of subpar beer and market saturation.

 

Good point. I find myself doing that quite often. Especially with bombers. I rarely buy them anymore because 6-7$ for a mediocre IPA or Stout in a bomber can't beat my go to Deschutes, SN, or NB brews at the same price a sixer.

 

When I see cases of SNPA from CALI and local offerings like Foothills Hoppyum going for about 25$ a case at Costco in NC and 12 packs of Celebration at for $10-12 a twelve at Christmas, I am confident there will remain a niche for good beer at a good price.

 

Pricing is my breaking point. I'm already at about what I'm willing to pay. For example, my local grocery store raised their prices on Southern Tier 6 packs from 8.99 to 9.99... yeah, it's only a buck, but it was just enough to piss me off. Fortunately, I found a bottle shop literally across the street that sells the same six packs for the 8.99. And they carry a lot of other great stuff that the grocery store doesn't have. Saranac and Sierra Nevada are still pretty good deals (though, I still drink mostly Southern Tier). If they raise prices much more it's back to PBR.

 

In my opinion it's a combination of market saturation and sub-par beer. For me, the bottom line is that I have many choices of beer to buy and a limited budget. Therefore, if I'm going to spend $12-$15 on a bomber it had better be good.

 

I do not believe there will be a bubble for beer because its culture has opened the door on so many other inter connected dots in the chain.
We're ripe for a few stinkies though, and it'll be a few of the reasons you listed acting in cahoots with one another that will upend the lower fruit among the breweries.
Market saturation riding side saddle with pricing and sub par beer are going to be a big deal. I'm interested to find out what actually does happen when Lagunitas goes online here in Chicago because I also believe we are due for a price drop in the overall market.

 

I agree with you on this, there are a lot of "brewery restaurants" out there, however, I think they will do fine on selling the beer, even as unimpressive as it may be, as long as their food is great. There are a bunch of places I either hear of, or recommend myself, that I say, Oh man the food there is great, they brew their own beer, it's uneventful and but sometimes you can find something to drink that you will like / remember, but its nice to just try something different with a good meal that you can't get elsewhere.

Off Topic: What coffee do you buy at $6? I would probably try it once, end up loving it, then be broke, so addicted to coffee....

 

Keep in mind we are drinking something still very affordable. I drink most of my beer from home so spending $3 a bottle is not all that bad when I compare it to the $4 that is asked for a Bud Light at a restaurant. People drinking wine spend a minimum of $6-8 a glass at a restaurant and probably on average $15 a bottle (with top wines going for WAY more than than that). Beer is still cheap even though it is more than it has ever been. I'd rather drink a 4pk of 16oz of Hop, Drop n Roll for $11 than any bottle of wine at any price.

Way more in this thread than a simple answer. All things considered, beer is still a value and growth product. I don't see anything changing anytime soon besides some of the lower quality craft guys will go under and new ones will be right there to open in their place.

I say this all because in response to a $10 increase over a few years for a top notch "in its category" beer is nothing significant. Are there better options (values) out there? That's for you to decide, but I guarantee you the Wine "advocates" would love if their top wines only had a 16% price increase over a number of years. And their top wines started at a much higher price already. I spend way more money on wine annually, and don't drink anywhere near the amount of it that I drink in beer. My wifes favorite wine is sold only through allocation direct from the winery via their mailing list. Their price went from $60 to $75 just this year and I still consider it a value. I bought all 6 bottles they were "willing" to sell me.

 

I have never paid $6 for a cup of coffee. And I do like good coffee like good beer. I always come back to Starbucks because it really is the best coffee I can find but I buy bags and make it in a french press or coffee cone - mere pennies per cup. And even when I do get it at a Starbuck's store I get it black... I don't need fancy lattes blah, blah, blah...

Ok, I will make one exception... pumpkin spice latte... It's Southern Tier Pumking Ale in coffee form... but even then I don't think it's $6.

I get your point, though...

 

I am 100% with ya!! I think the wife and I have a Starbucks addiction. I just thought there was some secret hi end coffee place in PA I didn't know about!!

 

Is Lagunitas Imperial Red being made again?? I haven't seen that in a couple years or so

 

I am so sick of this talk. There is no "bubble" on commodities.

Hey, when is the milk bubble gonna burst?

Hey, ground beef seems really popular these days. That bubble has to burst eventually.

How about the bottled water bubble?

Can we all just stop this talk. People will always drink beer. When they get used to drinking good beer, as more and more people are these days, they will not just go back to drinking crappy beer. Some breweries will continue to price their stuff right, while others will get greedy. The greedy ones will either have to adjust or go out of business. And Sierra Nevada, Stone, Founders, Schlafly, and the like will sell A LOT of beer and develop a lot of loyal customers for refusing to price gouge like some other breweries. New guys will learn they can't charge $10 for a 4 pack mad things will go back to how they should be and everyone will win in the end.

 

LOL at this post. You basically explained a bubble popping and its after effect. Yes craft beer is in a bubble sorry you can't accept it on paper even though you describe it and what needs to happen for a correction.

And yes commodities are prone to bubbles, try again.

 

Lastly, and I don't see even a mention of it yet, but I feel we should address the elephant in the room. What about beers trendiness? It seems the beer bubble is being perpetuated by people who feel it's the cool thing to do right now. Beer seems to have become the "occupy wallstreet" of the liquor world. People flock to the buy local drink local watering holes, and I feel they help Support some of these sub par brewpubs by drinking their shitty beer because it's cool. What's going to happen when beer isn't cool anymore?

 

Dayton Ohio. Two years ago, zero local breweries. Today, 8. And each one is selling all their beer as fast as they can brew it. No bubble here yet!