PVW DL

What about the 2,326 that have it on their "wants" list?

It's actually pretty cut and dry. Have to win the scratch off, pay $50 and you get one of the 4 variants. Roughly 2,500 bottles between all four variants for 2012 and about 1,200 bottles in 2011. That's divided between 6,000+ people with few people getting more than one variant. You aren't even guaranteed to get a bottle when attending. I'm not sure what else people can be missing about this. There aren't any hidden agendas at DLD to get a BA DL.

 

Yes there are people who think they're rare; as was pointed out, there are people who think KBS is "rare." I'm referring to the views of certain people only. None of the BA dls (other than the first muerte) are rare, yet. But a few will be soon and my view is that they'll eventually wind up being true whales, whether you think that is right or not. But I'm sure you are far more qualified on the topic than I am. I'd love to see a list of beers that you think are worthy.

 

I imagine it's 2,326 people that will be going....yep...thats an imperial stout when they get the chance to try it. It's a good beer, but it is not head and shoulders above anything else.

 

This post makes no sense. He said it wasn't a desirable beer. I pointed out the fact that regardless of taste, Dark Lord is a highly desirable beer. It has one of the highest wants total on BA and its lore fare exceeds the craft beer community. "Normal" people even know what Dark Lord is want to try it. Saying DL isn't a desirable beer is just ignorant.

 

I guess it goes back to my original point. It isn't about Dark Lord. Its about 3 Floyd's.

 

I think KBS tastes better than BA DL

 

I agree with jbuddle. I hear you, Roon...I'm not a fan of regular Dark Lord. But some of the BA variants - with Brandy Vanilla being the best IMO - are simply outstanding.

 

AB hunahpu had a similar flavor profile going on and I thought it was better. I probably traded much less than is required to get BV DL.

 

Sorry, I was trying to say it wasn't more desirable than other popular imperial stouts, not that it wasn't desirable at all.

Where can you see the number of Wants?

So approximately 4 in 10 people got variants last year. That's not particularly different than waiting in line for Citra or CFH, where the proportion of people who struck out is similar. But, again, people treat BA Dark Lord like it's an unusual hardship - that cult of misinformation I keep referring to.

"Few" getting more than one variant is unprovable one way or another, but as I personal know several people that got more than 1 (through wives, mules), I don't think the number is that small. It behooves people to pretend that it is, for their trade value, so they keep the myth going.

I'm sorry, I think creating whale lists is the ultimate in pointless beer masturbation. But I had a lot of fun doing that kind of thing in 3rd grade when I ranked the Power Rangers. The green one was the best.

I really don't care whether BA Dark Lord becomes a whale or not. My point is simply that, right now, it trades like it does because people misrepresent how hard the beer is to get. Asking me what beers I think are whales is a totally irrelevant tangent.

 

You are awesome. Thanks for the wisdom and for being such a cool guy. We're a lucky bunch.

 

More like:
-1/5 of people who tried to buy Dark Lord tickets got tickets.
-1/3 of people who got DLD tickets got lottery tickets for BA variants
-1/2 of people who got lottery tickets got "desirable" BA variants. And you had to be in the earlier ticket groups to be able to even choose these before they ran out.

So it's more like a 1/30 chance to get the variants talked about in this thread, not a 12/30 chance (or 4/10, as you said). There's quite a bit more competition than something like a Citra or CFH release, and a few more levels of probability to pierce.

 

Sorry you're taking it so personally, but making a whale list is a really sad use of one's time.

I don't think it's appropriate to count people who didn't even attend the release as having missed out. I don't agree with fudgy numbers.

Guesstimating, 10-20% of people who got bottles, got multiples. Probably as many as 50% if you count tasting groups together.

That's circular reasoning though. "Price is high, therefore demand is high." I'm saying the price is high because the perception of supply is low. Neither one can be proven, but I'm way too cynical to assume people aren't going to lie to boost their trade value.

Cheers to a civil discussion.

 

The idea is that those who wish to attend the release cannot simply show up the day of, like with many other releases. You first need to run the gauntlet of getting a ticket. So it adds another layer of probability that you have to be lucky with. It's obviously an appropriate consideration because it absolutely adds to the unlikeliness of getting a bottle, given all other conditions are equal. Isn't that what we're talking about - how hard it is to get a BA Dark Lord?

 

And yet here you are, making multiple posts arguing the relative rarity/desireability of a certain beer that 99% of the craft beer community will never taste and does not care about and why you think it is perceived to be as "rare" as it is. Umm... If its such a waste of time why are you making such an effort?

Guy, at least when Grumpy and I talk about wales, we realize and admit its a pointless but nevertheless fun exercise.

 

It's not a circular argument. i'm not saying demand is high because price is high. Price (an organically developed one, anyway) is a function of supply vs. demand. Price doesn't dictate demand, it is simply an indicator of it. The extreme trading "price" of a BA DL simply indicates that the supply of bottles available for a lower price is extremely low, and the demand on an individual basis is high enough to justify the price (as trades are sometimes getting done).

But you understand the simple economics, you are just saying that people are "artificially" representing the supply side in order to manipulate the price. I'd like know what you think people are lying about (bottle numbers are printed on the damn bottles, aren't they?). Could be, but the fact of the matter is that the traders with BA DL aren't producing it, they just have it (and presumably want to keep it at some level). And, they have an extremely limited supply of it (even the biggest mules/cheaters/ major traders might have what, 6-10-12 bottles? If they have much more than that they probably paid/traded out the nose for them!), most having on the order of 1-3. So you aren't really comparing the purest form of supply vs demand anymore, you are starting with a (reasonably) low supply and then auctioning the bottle between the demand of the person that already has it (to keep their bottle) vs the demand of the person that wants to trade for it.

The Beer trading community is pretty raw economics, any unbalance is usually worked out over a bit of time (see the FT: Hunapuhs threads -12, -1, 0, 5, and 24 hours after Hunapuhs day!). Then you throw in one of the most recognized and proven brand names (FFF and/or DL), a huge hoopla day and event, the multiple levels of random luck, legwork, and not to mention cash monies involved in acquiring one, and the beer actually tastes pretty good, and you've got yourself a trading whale.

Is it the rarest of the rares? no. But everyone wants one, and those that have them want to keep them. All you are seeing is the collective group deciding who wants them the most

 

I would buy the economics argument if the trading value held across the board for all BA stout bottle releases of similar bottle counts. It does not however. That being the case the only logical conclusion is that the FFF name is leading moreso to the demand than a low supply. It's more hype than it is supply vs demand.

 

Hype is a meaningless term. Either people believe the hype in which case hype=demand, or they don't and it has 0 effect. There demand is higher, that's all there is to it.

 

If that were actually the case (it's not), you wouldn't see offers like Brandy DL + Murda'd Out Stout + multiple shelf whales for Brandy Vanilla DL.

 

But if we're considering the people who want to attend the release but cannot, why wouldn't you expand Citra's desirability to some arbitrary 8,000 people who just weren't able to make it that particular morning because of practical concerns like proximity, not taking time off of work, etc? Every release has a number of hoops.

Making a few posts on beer (which is all you can do here) and making lists is a whole different world of effort, and the latter remains hysterical to me.

That being said, you keep doing what you love. I only showed my disdain when Grumpy tried to imply that the ability to make a whale list makes you worth listening to. But since you admitted it is pointless, maybe Grumpy will drop it.

Actually, I think the trading forum is pretty easily manipulated with misinformation, as usually the people who have the beer also have the most accurate info about it, and they have no real interest in telling the truth. For example, people who attend "limited allotment" releases but walk away with multiple allotments' worth - they won't show their hand.