Same here. After a while you get good at hitting the mark. Before that I missed a lot, now if I am brewing a new recipe...I don't usually miss by much
Not sure I have a beer im 100% happy with yet. Been brewing ~4 years and re-brewed all of my "house staples" 5+ times each An APA, ESB and IPA.
I so rarely rebrew, and when I do my system has been tweaked so I get greater variance than normal... I tweak the recipe but am not sure if the change in system or recipe is the cause. Personally I'm OK with that because I like brewing for me and not for an exact mark on a target (BJCP, same beer on tap...)
I found a recipe that I like, and I've brewed it 4 times now. But I have made changes each time just to see it evolve. The base is so good, and so well rounded I'm fearless with it and know it'll make a good base for whatever I do with the hop schedule. So I'd say..... the first time you know it's a keeper. The second time you try to replicate, and the 3rd you get big dick sydrome and tweak it some more.. So 4th time is the charm.
You should also consider that it could be your process as much as recipe. Either you can change your recipe to get what you want, or if you think it's a good recipe change your process to achieve your goal.
I have a porter that is a keeper, probably 5 or 6 tweaks. Very small adjustements to the brown malt and BP percentages. Of course I have this Pearle malt now for the first time so.... I have a go to RIS grainbill, but I still adjust OG and yeast and such. I have two different go to grainbills for IPAs, but the hops are in constant flux.
It took me 3 tries to get my keeper Brown Ale,Then I went all grain and was fortunate enough to hit right away. I do tweek all my recipes till I consider it a "keeper". There are 4 recipes I brew all the time I like doing different recipes to see the different results.
I'm also in the boat for always brewing something different, mostly. I have brewed an IPA recipe base the same 3 times, but the hops were different each time. I think thats the fun part. Making something so good, you still want to improve it or tweak it. I haven't yet really gone back to "clone" something I did in the past, not yet atleast.
Even if something I've brewed is deemed a keeper, making changes is some of the fun. "This is great; but, what if I change this hop/yeast..." Maybe the result is even better than the "keeper."