Reached the Saturation Point?

I'll add a little bit of my experience. I have been working part time at my local beer store for the last few months. I have been a loyal patron there since the store opened 4 years ago and have been a friend of the owner since he was a manager at one of my favorite bars in town. After about 10 years of acquaintance, then eventual friendship he asked if I wanted to pick up a few hours at the store over weekends or whenever I want when my regular job permits.

Anyway, a small store with 500+ single bottles/cans of all sizes, and 15 taps that we sell growlers of. Growlers to go and keg sales are our biggest money makers. The store used to only carry well established quality breweries on tap that typically don't package a lot of bottles/cans, or more one offs "rare" releases when they do a lot of packaging. Like Live Oak, 512, Real Ale, Lone Pint, Saint Arnold for the local/semi local breweries. Then the bigger national crafts like Stone, Founders, Ballast Point, etc. The store is in Houston, just for reference.

In the last year the Houston area has had an explosion of new breweries open. Easily 20+ new ones within the last year or two. This is not hyperbole when I say the great majority of those are mediocre at best, and can be really bad at worst. Outside of Brash, and a few others, there is really nothing I would recommend from this new round of breweries.

In the past when the store used to get a bad or poorly made beer, my friend and owner had no problem sending they keg back and saying no thank you in the future, or until he could tell the products got better. Now we are trying to make an effort to carry a bunch of these mediocre breweries. Because mainly that is what most of our customers want now. It is a never ending ticking game with many people, so they can get whatever badge on Untappd. The store at times has now stopped being so picky about the selection of taps, and sales from these lesser mediocre breweries have really picked up, well above than when we had a much better and more curated selection.

I don't want to say that is good or bad, cause it is good for the store. We of coarse go back to the better curated selection when possible. Though I find it sad, and know he does too, that the more inferior product is selling better right now. I don't think that will last cause I would hope eventually people come around to just wanting the best they can get. Instead of the newest they can get. Wow, long post, I don't typically write this much

 

Same thing with variants; they don't have to be better, just different.

 

I haven't been into craft nearly as long as some here, but even I have sensed a change in the last few years. I used to feel confident that in any city, any and all brewpubs would have great food and great beer. Now, every new place I go less than impressed me in both aspects. When I buy a mixed sixer of new stuff, I would rarely buy any of them again. I echo the comments here that the general quality of product has gone down with this explosion.

I'm happy at this point to neglect the smaller places in my hometown, opting for only the best few, and only go to places like Stone and 3 Floyds when I am out of town, because I know the product will be excellent. I'm still a ticker at heart, but the truth is, especially after getting into homebrewing a year ago, I just don't think the majority of microbrew is that good.

But as for market saturation? I don't think so. People will patronize bad establishments because they don't know better. Look at all of the restaurants that stay in business serving terrible food. This is nothing new; it's just a new era for beer.

 

But your store still has a good selection of 'better' quality beer for your customers who are not tickers, right?

Cheers!

 

We're long past the point of saturation of the total beer market, looking at only off premise data (an easy place to start), there are far more new products in craft beer than there is new dollars. This is the definition of over-saturation. Look at TTB taxes paid, total beer is basically flat to declining, but damned if 3 new breweries haven't opened up in my medium sized city in the last two months. You can say what you please based on your anecdotes about what the market desires, but so far craft beer has been not had particularly strong success in growing the total beer business. I'm seriously considering starting a brewery death pool because I think it's going to be an interesting year in 2017...

One could claim that craft beer isn't saturated and they will simply continue to chip away at the (still extremely large) AAL business, but if that's where you want to hang your hat, you have to come up with a response to recent trends that show that craft beer volume is flat to negative in the most recent statistically significant time periods.

The one niche where I will say there is no saturation point is in brewpubs. Think about how many restaurants there are in your city, how many different concepts, etc. If you own a restaurant that happens to have it's own beer made on site (even if only in 10 gallon batches or something), there isn't a point of saturation for that because (I assume) your main business is the food, not the beer and that captive customer isn't competing with the rest of the market.

This is an interesting problem for me, at this point, social media can't reliably keep up with what's available, especially given the crazy level of inconsistency across many of the smallest breweries. I can be talking to a buddy who tells me that Brewery X is making amazing beer (and it rightfully was last week) and I wander in this week and get off flavored crap.

 

Of coarse, especially bottles. Though sometimes, I look at what we have and would not get anything on tap. At other times, I want it all. I guess anyplace can be cyclical like that, for any number of reasons.

 

Yep. I used to say that there was more great wine to drink than there are people to drink it. Beer has gotten to that point. I ain't bitchin'.

 

As long as I can stop into your store and purchase the 'better' quality beers (vs. ticking the latest local stuff) I would be a happy customer.

I must confess that as I walk into my local beer stores I have the functional equivalent of 'tunnel vision': I really only 'see' the better quality beers that I am interested in and frankly all of the other stuff doesn't register. One of the advantages of being male?

Cheers!

 

My hands down favorite BP in NJ (which always satisifies my expectations) is one of the original ones: The Ship Inn in Milford.
It's a bit of a hike for me from New Brunswick, but still, I try to get there at least a few times a year (actually, I had loved that place for years before they started brewing their own).

 

Must be nice. I have to drive 3+ hours one-way from down here in Bumfuck, GA just to make it to a bottle release. I say consider yourself lucky that you have options.

 

New releases and "for a limited time only" has been standard routine for the fast good industry for many years. The beer industry is no different. It keeps the customer base from straying too far and gives other consumers a reason to give you a try. It's just good business. And in many cases you can charge more.

 

I can't disagree with that...I guess I didn't express myself very well (it happens ).

I totally agree with you that there is most certainly a greater selection of high quality beer today than the '80s or '90s... it's the ratio of excellent-to-meh 'craft' brew that has shifted in the years since. 30 years ago, it just seemed that it was far less of a crapshoot when trying a new 'micro' product compared to the present day experience...the overall quality of micro/craft beer back then just seemed to be better and much more dependable, and for the most part, the early players in the micro/craft segment seemed to deliver more consistently on the implied promise that their artisanal product is going to be much better than products offered by the bigger brewers (again...that's just my own personal observation and opinion ).

 

It wasn't so long ago that there were too few releases and they all (or most) reviewed as real shit shows with many folks missing out altogether. I would think that an embarrassment of riches would be a welcomed 180.

 

I used to get to The Ship Inn often when my brother lived in the next town. Only been there a few times since he moved. Great place,always enjoyed their beer. I like the beer at Trap Rock a lot and since it's in the next town I get there often.

 

I really don't see what the issue with more releases is, save those who liked the exclusivity of craft beer several years ago. Perhaps it's the feeling that you can't try everything, which I get- after all, I am a pretty hefty ticker myself, but more releases will yield better results for craft beer. Not only will we continue to see more innovations in brewing, beer styles, prices, etc. with more beer in production, but we'll be able to include more folks who will help support and sustain breweries well into the future. Cut that down to a handful of big breweries, and you start to lose the innovation, competitive pricing, and inclusion, and thus the market will start to trail off.

At the end of the day, I hope this is not a point of saturation and we start decling from here. At the same time, if it's a cleanse of bad breweries and we get a chance to open up the market for more new breweries with potentially some even better beer and ideas, I'm all for it.

 

That could very well be. As I posted previously today I have a 'condition' of tunnel vision so I tend to not even take notice of many of the new(er) beers on the stores shelves.

As an 'example' below is a list of my recent bottle/can purchases:

• Firestone Walker: Union Jack & Luponic Distortion 004 (which is a new beer but from an established brewery)
• Sierra Nevada: 12-pack of Celebration
• Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout: I bought a case of this beer!
• Jever: a 6-pack of the Pilsner

As you can see when it comes to packaged beer I am pretty much 'old school'.

But just like Michael (@TongoRad) I tend to be a little more adventurous when it comes to draft product. I have a 'battle plan' for my visit later today at TJs Everyday for some Happy Hour drinking:

• Singlecut 19-33 (a Pilsner)
• Singlecut Billy Half-Stack IPA

When it comes to draft beer I am a bit more 'adventurous'.

Cheers!

 

The big danger in the upcoming "purge" (I don't see it as a bubble bursting where a thousand breweries go out of business overnight, but instead breweries simply running out of capital and quietly closing their doors) is that I don't think that we will see a cleanse of breweries making bad beer, we'll see a cleanse of breweries who are not effectively running their business.

My favorite example of this is one local brewery near me who makes pretty mediocre beer (and I'm being generous with that statement). However, they have exceptional branding, a nice tap room and do a good job on social media. They started their business well capitalized and have done well in getting intro distribution. This brewery will (unfortunately) survive long after some other local breweries I know who are owned and operated by beer lovers, not businesspeople.

 

I definitely agree with that point. Reminds me a bit of a big brewery in Indiana where I used to live.

 

Same here, Jack. Since finding BA, I'd guess my positive/non-disapointing rate is maybe 95% (up from ~50/50). &..... among that 5% were some that weren't a surprise. I was expecting a thumbs-down experience, but tried them anyway. Can never be sure until you do. Sometimes the ol' monkey curiosity has to be satisfied. ; )

 

Ahh, that's a valid and good point. I can see why folks would be worried about saturation. It's not a triumphant solution, but I do make sure to buy good local beer and share cans and bottles with others so they can try it. I figure the best exposure for some of them is word of mouth. Again, it won't change a whole lot, but it could help some non-business proficient breweries stay the course. Assuming they are at least financially savvy enough to maintain.