"Serious Warning Signs" for Big Beer

I like the way they didn't refer to the BMC owned "crafty" or "stealth brews" as craft beer, instead using the terms "above-premium" and "craft-style." Kudos to AdAge!

 

Haha..."bad weather."

 

CEO: What can we tell our shareholders is the reason for declining sales? We can't say terrible quality, taste, and poor ingenuity can we?

Corporate "yes" man: Let's just blame it on bad weather

CEO: What does that even mean?

Corporate "yes" man: I don't know but it will sure confuse the hell out of our shareholders

 

The industry has long recognized that weather affects beer sales. Here's an example from 1958's American Brewing Industry and The Beer Market, on Chicago's beer sales in relationship to average month temperatures.

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The survey "reveals some serious warning signs for the premium light segment," said David Decker, President of Consumer Edge Insight. "After a long period when these domestic premium light brands dominated the U.S. beer industry, many beer drinkers, particularly younger ones, are finding that they prefer the stronger and more varied tastes of imports and craft beers instead. This suggests that the recent weakness in share trends for the big premium light flagship brands is likely to continue."

If the above is true then the BMC breweries have some real concerns here.

Cheers!

 

That's more likely than AB-InBev actually knowing what they are doing to become a multi-billion dollar conglomerate, I guess.

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156770/majority-drink-alcohol-averaging-four-drinks-week.aspx

If the population of young, white males is growing at a faster rate than all other demographic sectors, craft beer should continue to grow. I don't think that they are though. Hispanics and Asians are growing much faster.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/us-usa-census-idUSBRE8BB1RE20121212

 

There is an optimum temperature for beer sales and it probably varies by geographic area. Surprisingly, hotter does not always mean better. Texas distributors used to say that sales declined when it got "real hot" because people didn't go outside and engage in their normal recreational activities. I'm guessing on the temps but I'd say that 90 to 95 degrees is pretty good beer selling (and drinking) weather down here and over 100 degrees not so good. These days its not so good with highs of 103.

 

In Chicagoland, the hotter it gets past 93 or so, the less yellow fizz is sold. Conversely in Summer if below 80, sales are slower. Does not not matter where, chain or mom & pop.

 

Does that mean we'll all be drinking Tecate and barley-and-hop-flavored sake before the decade is up?

 

So how much would craft have been up if this spring/summer had been warmer?

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/sorry-lite-beer-some-getting-tired-taste-6C10846724

It also mentions how a lot of people are switching to wine and spirits as opposed to any beer, which sucks for all beer, macro or micro. Still, it points to the shift in markets and culture that we've all personally observed.

 

What taste?

 

Uh, this is news? Have you seen a beer commercial for these? Actual beer drinkers have been getting tired of the taste of these for decades now; they grow up and drink real beer. Others stick with them as a cheap, mindless way to get a buzz. I think even the most ardent light beer drinker would probably concede that taste is not an important consideration when picking a beer to drink.

 

Ahhh, the macro light lager drinker's taste buds are finally growing up...."How sweet" *tear shed*

 

The old saying "you can't miss what you never had" that certainly applies to the "taste" of lite beer.

 

Big problem with surveys - your results depend on the subjects you recruit for your survey. And if you publish
survey results and don't disclose the type of people you survey [i.e. 300 people who identified themselves as regular light beer drinkers] as part of your results, the survey is fatally flawed since as far as a reader knows, they could have surveyed 300 regular craft beer drinkers or a mixture of both.

 

The survey is actually less flawed than the reporting on it.

 

"Of consumers drinking fewer big light beer brands, 27% said the main reason is "getting tired of the taste," while 21% said they were "consuming more types of other beer," according to ConsumerEdge Insights' Beverage DemandTracker, a periodic survey of U.S. adults who consume alcohol at least once a week. Economic factors, the reason so often cited by big marketers, ranked third, at 20%"
I would guess that the people who drink 90+% of the beer drunk in the USA drink beer every day not at least once a week. Most of them drink the same beer all the time. The beer they drink is not craft or expensive imports it's BMC or Corona, ect.