Shouldn't this be done by now?

Gravity reading is the only sure way. When the beer starts warming up, CO2 is released, that could be what is bubbling.

 

^ Agreed. Open it up, grab a sample and take a gravity reading. See how close you are to your target FG.

 

Air-lock activity is not a good indicator of fermentation.

The ONLY reliable way to determine activity is through gravity readings.

 

Take *two* gravity readings, 2-3 days apart. If unchanged and in the neighborhood of what you (or the recipe) expected, you're done.

I don't know why so many people (beginners) think they ought to be counting bubbles. I'm trying to remember if "How To Brew" might say something about bubbles...

 

Agree with all the other posters about gravity, and I'll add that you didnt help your beer by steeping oats, oats must be mashed with a basemalt, all you did was add starch to your beer

 

Not to mention the flaked barley. But if I were going to make this mistake, I guess a stout would be a good style to make it in. Drink fast!

 

Its normally those awesome instructions in the kits that homebrew shops sell.

Edit: Either the bubbles for activity or the ever accurate set number of days.

 

OK so...bubbling-rate hasn't been like the standard for determining when fermentation is like over since like the 80s.

That would be a big fat no.

The longer wort sits does not mean the alcohol percentage is STEADILY rising. Afterwhile...there comes a point of diminishing returns...and the money shot is most often after two to three weeks in the fermentor.

 

"The following is a general procedure for using a secondary fermentor.

1. Allow the Primary Fermentation stage to wind down. This will be 2 - 6 days (4 - 10 days for lagers) after pitching when the bubbling rate drops off dramatically to about 1-5 per minute. The krausen will have started to settle back into the beer."

"When to Lager

It takes experience for a brewer to know when primary fermentation is winding down and the beer is ready to be transferred... You can play it safe by waiting several weeks for the primary phase to completely finish (no more bubbling) and rack then, but you will have missed your opportunity for a diacetyl rest. As discussed in the previous chapter, you should rack to a secondary when the krausen has started to fall back in. The bubbling in the airlock will have slowed dramatically to 1 or 4 bubbles per minute, and a hydrometer reading should indicate that the beer is 3/4 of the way to the terminal gravity. Knowing when to rack takes experience, it's as simple as that. "

I still count my bubbles. I'm a slave to quantifiable data though.

 

If you know your brewhouse, bubble counts can be useful, and a proxy for gravity readings at non-critical times. But there's no general standard to apply. That's why I think any instructions that say "watch for X number of bubbles per minute" are off the mark.

 

Yeah, that's pretty much how I use it. If I see a constant stream of bubbles, followed by a sharp drop off in bubbles, I'll plan on taking a measurement two days later. No point taking/wasting samples mid-fermentation. The numbers themselves don't matter, but lost amidst the "bubbles don't matter!" chatter is the fact that alcoholic fermentation creates carbon dioxide. If you have a good seal, you should see some bubbles, plain and simple - and if you see some bubbles early and see none later, you have a pretty good idea that fermentation is over - to be confirmed with a hydrometer measurement.