There Is No Craft Beer Bubble(?)

Small and local certainly don't equate to good and a lot of breweries seem to be surviving on that alone as mentioned. Maybe the only bubble that will burst is the bubble all of us BA members live in

 

In order to keep things level, I think it depends on breweries lowering prices as they increase production and consumer demand remaining unchanged. As the "buy local" comment kinda alluded to, this isn't always the case. I think the alchemist has done pretty well with this, keeping prices reasonable while production has increased but I think it has to drop in the long term. Others in my area (Tree house & Trillium) that have or soon will open up secondary facilities, are shifting from contract brewing or finally breaking even with infrastructure investments (like a canning rig) will be telling -as their overhead drops. For these guys, I'll be interested to see if prices drop in the case of TH or continue to drop for Trillium. If they don't drop, I think that could definitely contribute to a bubble and box out new start ups.

 

Well put, LeRose. I found a lot of your observations pretty spot on. I think many have said it, and I believe it's true... the craft beer DRINKING bubble is not going to burst (I've been drinking "craft" beer since it was "microbrew" in the late 80's, as have most of my same-age-buds) but I do think the BREWING bubble may burst a bit... I'm not at all convinced it shouldn't. Flooding the market with so-so beer is not benefitting the scene. Providing well done, brewed with finesse beer is what will prevail... as well it should.

 

Very possible, but I also think you have to look at things a little more broadly. A local place that doesn't make 'good' beer yet remains busy is actually providing something that keeps their customers coming back for more. Many times it's a combination of location, feel, food, etc- quite a few things which have nothing to do with the beer. If they were well run and turning a profit, I'd say that they are actually not a weak business at all, but someplace that has found and exploited its niche quite well.

Now, can such a place compete on the shelves alongside the top guns- local, regional and national? If the last shakeout provides any lessens, that answer is undoubtably 'hell no'- a high percentage of those places are the ones who disappeared (as well as many of the "in it for a buck" contract brews).

So, in the end, it might behoove these 'weak' places to actually stay local.

 

Natty Greene's is a local that was ahead of its time- built along the spine of an older culture of beer awareness. The beers can be quite good, the food is excellent, and their vision was ungodly good. It is an iconic and irreplaceable mark in this city and a model for urban renewal everywhere. Nathaneal Greene was a Rhode Island Quaker that George Washington charged to save the southern piece of The Revolution. I walk almost daily through this historic place.

 

Michael, I agree. I purposefully uses single quotes wrt "weak' to be consistent with Larry's assessment from a beer quality perspective. The local breweries (brewpubs/tasting rooms) are providing other 'features' beyond the actual beer aspect which provides value to the local customers.

In other words for craft beer consumers beyond the BA crowd it is not just a situation of beer quality.

Cheers!