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Too Many Breweries? - Bubble Will Burst

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by Celtics76, Jan 17, 2013.

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  1. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    The only bubble that's going to burst is the one where a bunch of brewers with crappy business models and mediocre beer go out of business and even on that point I'm not sure because there are a number of PDX breweries that are STILL going despite their beer being average.
  2. Alexmc2

    Alexmc2 Jul 29, 2006 Oregon

    Didn't that happen in the 90s?
  3. Celtics76

    Celtics76 Sep 5, 2011 Rhode Island

    Right too many new businesses (not just breweries) lack any sort of concrete business model, and eventually get buried in debt due to overexpansion, poor marketing, etc. One step at a time is key.

    Here in RI, Foolproof just opened in early Jan. They are starting out by offering their beer on draft only and are having "launch parties" around the state to build word of mouth. In a month or so, they are going to start selling cans. The hope is that the launch parties will create buzz and the first batch of cans will sell out. I think it's a good start - baby steps.
  4. Hanzo

    Hanzo Feb 27, 2012 Virginia

    I'll be honest, when I am standing in the multi isle beer section of the newly remodeled Total Wine near me and I see literally hundreds of feet of shelves stuffed, floor stacks, end caps etc with hundreds upon hundreds of different craft beers available, I do ask myself, who the hell is drinking all this?.....

    These breweries making sub par or even average run of the mill beers will eventually get weeded out, it is not a matter of if but when.
    LambicKing, AxesandAnchors and LeRose like this.
  5. Celtics76

    Celtics76 Sep 5, 2011 Rhode Island

    I'm concerned about breweries like Pretty Things for that reason. They only sell bombers. And they're not cheap.
  6. Celtics76

    Celtics76 Sep 5, 2011 Rhode Island

    Not yet. But there are more on the horizon.
  7. rlcoffey

    rlcoffey Apr 20, 2004 Kentucky

    As I said in one (or probably many) of the threads linked. IT ISNT A BUBBLE. That isnt what the word means.
    SammyJaxxxx likes this.
  8. rlcoffey

    rlcoffey Apr 20, 2004 Kentucky

    [quote="Hanzo, post: 849875, member: 661849"
    These breweries making sub par or even average run of the mill beers will eventually get weeded out, it is not a matter of if but when.[/quote]

    Absolutely. But, to pick on the title of the thread, that has nothing whatsoever to do with bubbles.
  9. Levitation

    Levitation Aug 7, 2009 California

    i assume that's just from portland culture, having neighborhood pubs, that sort of thing.

    when i went up for the aftw release, i toured a few places and was really disappointed: migration, burnside, amnesia, lompoc, upright (generally), lucky lab, etc... all homebrew-level horseshit.
  10. tjensen3618

    tjensen3618 Mar 23, 2008 California

    Yup, they just starting distributing to CA, I personally have not bought one.
    Breweries like that have what seems to be a sell beer by expansion mindset. Sell beer to a market, good sales at first, then beer starts to move slow so saturate the next market, and on and on etc...
  11. Celtics76

    Celtics76 Sep 5, 2011 Rhode Island

    I see some parallels to the sports card market. Back in the late 80s, early 90s, the sports card hobby had exploded. Initially, there were only 3 baseball card companies who offered packs of cards for no more than 75 cents each. Within 5 years, that had ballooned to over 20 (with many of the packs over $2) and the market crashed - ie. card values plummeted as the market became saturated and people became less interested due to being confused/overwhelmed. Now it exists only as a niche hobby.

    I don't think this will happen to craft beer at this level, but eventually there will be a "market correction" and many breweries that sell $15 6-packs/$9 bombers and/or poor quality product will go under.
    BrewsoBrewco likes this.
  12. rlcoffey

    rlcoffey Apr 20, 2004 Kentucky

    Sorta, but not really. Craft volume didnt drop, but the number of breweries/brewpubs did. The strong craft breweries more than made up for the slack.

    It wasnt anything bubbly, it was just good old fashioned creative destruction.
    Zach136 likes this.
  13. Celtics76

    Celtics76 Sep 5, 2011 Rhode Island

    I've wondered that myself. And I've noticed many of the larger liquor stores have expired beer sitting on the shelves for months at a time, and eventually go into a "bargain basket" for a buck a piece.

    And I'm talking quality beers from the likes of Troeg's, Victory, etc.
  14. cbeer88

    cbeer88 Sep 5, 2007 Massachusetts

    We're over-saturated with mediocre breweries. And yes, the bubble will burst on them. You can already see the precursor to it with all the old bombers collecting dust in what should be thriving local markets. There are nowhere near enough great breweries though, and sometimes it takes wading through a lot of mediocrity to find the good ones.

    As for RI specifically - this is a state that had only one real brewery as recently as about two years ago, Newport Storm. Having 4-5 new ones isn't exactly overexpansion...
  15. AxesandAnchors

    AxesandAnchors Nov 21, 2012 Oregon

    Upright clearly doesn't belong on that list. Maybe you just don't care for farmhouse style beer? I won't disagree with the rest. I really hope that wasn't the extent of your Portland tour, if so you missed some really exceptional beer.
  16. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Jun 8, 2005 Michigan

    I agree, in that the 90s saw large growth in the volume of established breweries like Sierra Nevada. The big ones got bigger. Many medium and small breweries got squeezed, and if they did not have the product or the financial backing, they went under.

    Booms are not bubbles, but booms have a way of being followed by a bust, but that is not as bad as a bubble popping.
  17. ShogoKawada

    ShogoKawada May 31, 2009 Pennsylvania

    Try the new smoked porter, leaning chimney. It's great. The Extra Pale, flying jenny, is tasty too.
    Providence likes this.
  18. Levitation

    Levitation Aug 7, 2009 California

    well, it's my list, so i can say who belongs on it. :)

    i also hit cascade, deschutes, and hair of the dog (obviously). several of the places were pretty close to each other so that made it efficient.
  19. 77black_ships

    77black_ships Dec 4, 2012 Belgium

  20. guajolote

    guajolote Sep 12, 2008 Oregon

    This video is NW-specific, but you get the picture.

    BrewsoBrewco likes this.
  21. AxesandAnchors

    AxesandAnchors Nov 21, 2012 Oregon

    Fair enough, to each his own I guess o_O
  22. Cascade77

    Cascade77 May 14, 2009 Vermont

    OK. The two links seem to contradict each other. The first says 3000 Lambic Breweries in Brussels (a number I am still very skeptical of). The second says 3223 breweries (not specifically Lambic) in all of Belgium. This number seems much more believable to me. Not buying the first unless I see a better source.
  23. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Jun 8, 2005 Michigan

    In the late 90s Norwester, Saxer, and a few others went under in the PNW. Of course some opened in that timefrane.

    I don't see the number going down. I think there will be more closures, but there are so many opening small and nano sized places the numbers will keep going up, until the nano guys find out they have to grow or go out of business.
  24. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    Most of my favorite Oregon breweries are found outside the city for a reason. Hair of the Dog is about the only place I visit with any regularity, with some side trips to Breakside because while not always great, it's at least going to be inventive and interesting. (And my wife really like it.) I think the Commons has a bright future, too.
    travMI13 likes this.
  25. Todd

    Todd Founder Aug 23, 1996 Colorado
    Staff Moderator Site Editor Fest Crew Subscriber Beer Trader

    YaKnowBrady and MarkIntihar like this.
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