What does 2024 look like in your area?

Watching the (potential) Armed Forces brewing opening in Norfolk VA .. while eating popcorn. Just Google, I guess.

 

I’d like to see some numbers here to counter the ‘doom spiral’ narratives about San Francisco, at least when it comes to craft. Anecdotally, it still seems like the scene is, well, if not thriving at pre-pandemic levels at least on a healthy rebound.

 

A couple locals closed this year. We dont get seasonals from some regional/nationals anymore.

 

On site visitations seem to be still holding strong but not sure if beer consumption by volume is holding steady. In fact one local brewery that’s been around for about 10-12 years now is bringing in a lot more patrons on site over last couple years yet most craft beer enthusiasts feel the quality of their new offerings isn’t up to their usual standards from the past. They expanded both their inside and outside sitting areas I guess which makes it a more pleasing place for locals to hang out. Quality beer just isn’t the draw anymore however, and they don’t even do the hazies, pastries or smoothies either.

 

I’d like to meet a craft beer enthusiast that ever felt the opposite.

 

To quote one of the smartest people I've ever met: It'll be the same, just different.

 

Blastin' farts and breakin' hearts, bro.

2024 in a nutshell.

 

Many microbreweries in Quebec have lost money in 2023, so many will close down in the next months. With too many breweries it was predictable as people have seen the prices going up and statistically are drinking fewer beers and searching for non-alcoholic beer.

 

I believe in the city (Chicago) we lost more breweries than we gained in 2023. I would guess the suburbs held steady or slightly added overall. The newer creative breweries have been opening in the suburbs / far suburbs since the lockdowns (Goldfinger, Roaring Table), where it’s easier to operate in terms of laws, business environment, costs and crime.

I expect a continued decline overall in brewery count in 2024 locally, and for me to continue shifting my dollars to tried and true locals (and beyond) over exploring new and untapped for me breweries beyond trusted recommendations.

In Vegas, a few new breweries either just opened or will expand. They held steady in 2023 (a few opened, a few closed, a few sold and remain open). Their market is not as saturated. I visit a higher total number of different breweries in a few weeks than I do at home over the rest of the year. The quality (good / solid) is more level in Vegas whereas in Chicago there is a much wider divergence in quality that I’ve experienced.

 

I wonder if continued high prices (e.g., inflation) will be impactful to the many craft breweries in my area. Have consumers purchased less beer (e.g., decreasing beer volume sales) in 2023? And if so, can breweries still remain in business if this is the case?

I suspect that craft breweries that have a heavy debt burden (e.g., recently took out loans for expansion or other business reasons) may have to make the difficult decision to close.

I can report that this year I have been drinking more of my homebrewed beers and my purchase of commercially brewed beers has decreased. Everything is just too damn expensive these days.

Cheers!

 

Hopefully 2024 is the year of falling beer prices while maintaining quality. Brewers need to focus on efficiencies to lower their costs so they can lower their prices and move more product. I’m amazed at the amount of good beer options out that I just don’t buy because of high pricing and given how many good special releases near me don’t sell out any more and then sit in stores or breweries so I’m not the only one who feels this way.

 

2024 looks hazy with a 40% chance of meatballs.
But seriously, I see a lot of change coming up in what could evolve into a wave of sorts. I hope not. A number of small breweries and or taprooms just in the metro area have served their last pint. Some are doing alright, I think. For lack of a better way to put it, small breweries here multiplied rapidly, then there was the pandemiic with all of the costly determination to stay in business and be social, and then there's an aluminum can shortage, then the prices of beer went up like crazy high, and now a number of landlords won't renew leases. There's plenty more. In short it's a one-two punch recently (echoing the past 3 yrs) that knocked the wind out of both consumer and brewer and so it's a draw. I hope craft beer things here stabilize and that a big wave of closings doesn't tear through.

 

A local trend I’m seeing and wondering if it will advance in 2024 is the movement back to twelve ounce cans. A few breweries (E.g. Fat Head’s) are releasing fewer beers in pints than in previous years. Anyone else seeing this change?

 

The area of Michigan that I watch closely (SW MI) has essentially been status quo this year, and I've heard nothing new to change that for next year.

I think the rest of the state has had several new breweries open this year, but not any great number of them. Some have been in small towns that I wouldn't think can support a brewery, but with most breweries in the state are also an eatery, so maybe the food sales will support the beer.

I don't know the numbers for openings and closings, but I'll guess that 2023 saw a net increase of the number of breweries here. Next year? I don't have a clue.

 

The issue that I am seeing is just because you know how to brew beer this does not necessarily mean that you know how to run a business and there's been missteps that will most likely prove to be very costly and will come to fruition in 2024. 2023 was a bloodbath here as far as brewery closures (and maybe not the total amount but more the fixtures that had good stuff and/or good food and a few were surprising). Yes, the business climate is still tough but some are still banking on how it was years ago when craft beer was very popular where as long as your beer was new and decent you were going to get customers...those days are over.

I am also seeing a dip in quality. Besides some beers just tasting cheaper than they used to I've had a few canned beers recently from various breweries and I noticed a metallic can taste and the aluminum was much thinner. Probably not the breweries' fault and at the mercy of the supplier but when prices go up and overall quality goes down, there is going to be a problem.

 

Yogi Berra?

 

Status quo, with one brewery closed during covid hopefully reopening in a new location.
Ever the push for new legislation regarding higher abv on draft/availability in grocery stores or better yet the end of state run distribution.

 

One anecdotal local data point is that this year Conshohocken Brewing decided to package one of their brands (Ring the Bell Pilsner) in 12 ounce cans in a 12-pack. That beer is also available in the 16 ounce/four-pack can format (like all of the other brands). If Conshohocken decided to expand with other brands in the 12 ounce format then I would suggest a 'trend' might be happening.

My preference is the 12 ounce/six-pack format and whenever I see a fresh pack of Fat Heads Head Hunter IPA at my local supermarket I buy it (and sometimes even two six-packs).

Cheers to 12 ounce/six-packs!!!!!!