When did beer trading morph into futures contracts?

Discussion in 'Trade Talk' started by sandiego67, Feb 15, 2013.

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  1. sandiego67

    sandiego67 Initiate (0) Feb 25, 2008 California

    With every release, there are now pre-trades being set up days/weeks in advance. It has become a Futures Trading Board.

    I especially liked the thread about the guy who bet a Cable Car that he didn't have in his possession on the Super Bowl. He was scrambling around trying to secure a bottle after the game.
     
    lymph, jrnyc and omniscientcause like this.
  2. pmoney

    pmoney Initiate (0) Apr 15, 2011 Illinois

    The naked call of the beer trading market.
     
    huskermike12 and omniscientcause like this.
  3. libbey

    libbey Initiate (0) May 18, 2008 British Indian Ocean Territory

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
     
  4. stupac2

    stupac2 Pooh-Bah (2,031) Feb 22, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah

    Pretrades are nothing new, I've seen them for as long as I've been on BA. I think that certain types of releases tend to inspire them, but they're pretty much a constant.

    Let me know when we can short beers, then I'll be interested in the financialization of beer trading.
     
  5. Wisconsinality

    Wisconsinality Initiate (0) Aug 15, 2009 Wisconsin

    Let me know when I don't have to put my info out there, Name or Address and then I will short you beer.
     
  6. omniscientcause

    omniscientcause Initiate (0) Jun 4, 2010 District of Columbia

    You potentially can now. If you think a beer will be bad, set up a pretrade and ship it away before people realize it isnt anything special.

    You'll have no fundamental reason to do this other then your gut, but I could see this being lucarative when Doom gets released.
     
    Lansman likes this.
  7. sandiego67

    sandiego67 Initiate (0) Feb 25, 2008 California

    The Pre-Trade kinda acts like a short. You have mitigated your loss but won't participate in the gain if the beer becomes an insta-whale.

    For example, if I could get someone to agree to trade some other beers and get a premium $4$ on my latest BA release, I would have locked in my gains. If the beer turns out to be a drainpour and the word gets out to the trading world, I have mitigated my loss.
     
    omniscientcause likes this.
  8. stupac2

    stupac2 Pooh-Bah (2,031) Feb 22, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah

    Well yeah, but it's extremely limited.

    Also, for the record, I don't want to short beer, it's just that's the point where I think it would be interesting. Securitization would be interesting too, and that seems a lot more feasible but less sexy.
     
  9. sandiego67

    sandiego67 Initiate (0) Feb 25, 2008 California

    My example is actually more of a Put option.
     
  10. xnicknj

    xnicknj Initiate (0) May 25, 2009 Pennsylvania

    this happens fairly often - unload the local limited releases while the homers pump up the review ratings before the out-of-towners come in and wreck the rating. it's not often the locals come in and destroy a potential wale right out of the gate (see: Hellshire I).

    at least that's the conspiracy theory i read around here. :wink:
     
  11. GhettoFabulous

    GhettoFabulous Initiate (0) May 29, 2010 California

    Not sure if this would be wise - the credit default swaps on Bolt Cutter would have sank the entire market.
     
  12. yojimbo1

    yojimbo1 Initiate (0) Feb 26, 2012 Kansas
    Trader

    Technically we can short anything. All we need a market that we can agree on that sets the current price of something. Ebay? The problem here is that there is no market with enough volume that could resist manipulation.

    The short would go like this. You want to short a beer that I have in my possession. We agree that I loan you my beer with the stipulation that I get the beer back in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months whatever is the agreed time period. You would be hoping that the future price of the beer would be less that the current price. If that is the case you would get the difference in the future price to the current price. Of course if it is the other way around then the money would go in the other direction. Note that no beer actually has to change hands, only the agreement (contract) is necessary.
     
    Bluecane likes this.
  13. jegross2

    jegross2 Initiate (0) Jan 3, 2010 Illinois


    SpottedZombie
     
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  14. yojimbo1

    yojimbo1 Initiate (0) Feb 26, 2012 Kansas
    Trader

    I wouldn't worry about it, we would inevitably be bailed out.
     
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  15. sandiego67

    sandiego67 Initiate (0) Feb 25, 2008 California

    I like this idea but I think that you would need an active market so that the spot price/market price/stock price could be determined. If you and I had a contract between each other for one specific beer, how would we determine the value of the beer after 6 months unless it was offered to the broad public?
     
    yojimbo1 likes this.
  16. Sarlacc83

    Sarlacc83 Initiate (0) Mar 2, 2008 Oregon

    In your scenario, when people realized that the only way to potentially lock down a 'decent' trade was to set something up way in advance.

    Doesn't work that way any more because more than a few traders are willing to break the contract once their shiny new whale hits the open market and 'shoots up the charts'. See: BA Abraxas. (I'm of the opinion that anyone who breaks the pre-trade agreement is a bad trader, but that's just, like, my opinion, man. Fortunately it hasn't happened to me, and I've never done it and won't do it to anyone.)
     
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  17. Bluecane

    Bluecane Initiate (0) Dec 30, 2011 New York

    Yep, I was coming here to post this. Hell, GrumpyOldTroll and some of the others here probably have enough to allow for the shorting of walez, at least. The problem is transaction costs, i.e. shipping.

    I could see people buying a Bolt Cutter, taking that first sip, and then rushing to the phone to call their beer broker -- collar, collar, collar!!!!!!!!!
     
    yojimbo1 likes this.
  18. yojimbo1

    yojimbo1 Initiate (0) Feb 26, 2012 Kansas
    Trader

    You're absolutely correct there is no market that fits my description.
     
  19. yojimbo1

    yojimbo1 Initiate (0) Feb 26, 2012 Kansas
    Trader

    Note that no beer actually has to change hands. Transaction costs are Paypal only. :slight_smile:
     
  20. rowingbrewer

    rowingbrewer Maven (1,420) May 28, 2010 Massachusetts
    Trader

    you could get a beer off someone now, with the promise of repaying them with a future release. trade that beer immediately on the hype, then when that other beer has dropped in value you hit em back with shelf turds cause that is the current value of the beer.

    winning
     
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