when exactly did craft beer have such an explosion?

Do you have a source for this?
Sam Calagione used to come on BA, I remember him personally saying they shot 6 and were hoping the 6th would eventually get aired.
The second part about A-B pulling the plug was an unsubstantiated claim made by Anthony Bourdain over twitter.

 

Indeed. There are lots of outstanding new breweries now but they're still so small that the market may get swamped with crap before they've had the chance to establish their brands.

 

Start? Whatever date Sierra Nevada shipped the first Pale Ale out of California. Explosion? Well, considering the small share of the overall market we make up, I'd say about a year from now. I predict we hit 8% of the market by March, 2013, based solely on my observations of those around me buying beer in this state and other states. Now that's an explosion.

The bubble that is going to burst, IMO, will be the crash of a few of the familiar names in AAL. They can't all withstand the downward trend forever.

 

they said it at dogfish head when i was there this month...

 

Plus, wine is kinda boring. I've had great, expensive bottles of wine, but the complexities you can get out of different beer styles is of a greater variety than all the wine I've drank.

 

I think the only people who were not really expecting that turnout were you and Founders. For every special release, how many people were inline 2 hours before the beer was sold? Triple that number for the next year.

I still do not understand what Founders is doing with the KBS and other special releases. They have a large distribution area, yet decide to split the beer through all of it, and on top of that they trim more off the top with some (not enough) sold at the brewery.

I wonder if they think their beers are a fad that will fade by the next year? /s

 

not to mention how there are already plenty of mediocre breweries that are owned by passionate people.

In SD all of the breweries are expanding, and for some of them i think it would be wise to start collecting cash, get rid of debt and become stable. I feel they are growing and selling product due to the high interest in craft beer in general, not because their product is outstanding and can continue growth.

 

With you there. I can think of a couple of newer St Louis breweries who are pretty much getting by off the fact that they're new and the city's beer appetite is huge, but who make shit products, and are likely to be in a precarious position if/when the market for craft be contracts.

 

Hello. As xerenthar mentioned above, they mentioned it to me when I took the tour at Dogfish Head last October. I forgot the guys' names. But it was during the tour, afterwards during the tasting I was shooting the breeze with about 3 or 4 of the employees there. They mentioned as much about having shot all those shows as well as the AB InBev reference. It was indeed posted by Anthony Bourdain and he should know because it was his production company that was shooting/producing the shows.

Look, can they officially put a press release out stating as much? Probably not. More than likely there is some legal stuff involved that prevents anybody officially involved to state such things. However, besides myself and xerenthar I have heard another person say that they heard as much from Dogfish during the tours. Obviously this is when someone directly asks the question, they don't hand out pamphlets with this info or anything like that.

If it wasn't true, why would they make such claims? Why wouldn't they just say that Discovery channel pulled the plug and show/sell the rest of the episodes on the net or some other outlet?

I believe them. It walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and quacks like a duck. I am going to say it's a duck.

 

pretty sure it was a Tuesday

 

When it happened, it was kind of a big deal here on BA, i specifically remember Sam clearing the air with us here. Perhaps, Sam was not forthcoming with all information, in fact it's highly likely. But I remember we kinda ended the issue with Sam's official declaration and everything else just continued to be heresay.

I wish we could access the old forums, a lot of good stuff in there!

 

I dunno. I personally feel that I've been along with the "movement" as far as how it has gained momentum the past couple years and drawn people in. I really feel that it has to do with some of the bigger craft brewers getting big enough that you can find them in even an "average" bar and they become gateways. It might not seem like much to us now, but seeing a tap that isn't the normal macro but is something you've heard of - a Dogfish Head or even just Sam Adams' stuff or Sierra Nevada - and giving that a shot can be a good gateway. Then you find out that there's literally a thousand plus of brewers like them and it snowballs from there.

 

Nothing is sacred anymore....sniffles.

 

You can still access the old forums in a limited way. Try doing a Google search of an old thread, and then viewing a cached version of the page.

 

When it was bottled before fermentation completed.

 

Craft has been growing nicely for the last few years, but the last 12-18 months really hit a tipping point, at least as far as limited releases are concerned. Two years ago today I could still easily buy just about anything. Even Cantillon rarities were there on shelves for the taking. Now we're past the tipping point and things are still growing. So, either things are going to continue to get much worse, or, a giant bubble is about to pop once people realize they don't need 3 bottles of every single limited release in their cellar.

 

I agree with the posters above that the first big explosion was in the 90's with a die back after the market was super saturated with options. However back then craft beer was not as popular as it is today. Since those times many more people have been getting into craft beer and trying different styles so now the market can sustain more breweries and more styles but eventually there will be another die back. However, the second part of your question was more like when did craft beer become a commodity. For that answer I think that Lost Abbey, Stone, and 3 Floyd really started this by accident. With the Vertical Limit series being the first Beanie baby syndrome but this didn't happen right away it took a couple of years for people to realize that you could quadruple your profits overnight. But I believe the brewery only limited release crazy that really started to take off in 2007 was what really pushed the feeding frenzy for rare beers. I believe that most people buy these beers for their own enjoyment but because of the temptation to turn 15 dollars into 100 dollars a lot people cant help themselves. So today with a more informed and aware public for the deliciousness of such craft beers such as KBS combined with the chance for some people to make money you get what is happening now in the scene. But the best thing is that now there are so many good breweries/brewers that people shouldn't be concerned with not getting a Darklord, PTY, etc. There are just so many damn good options out there.

 

That article actually states that there are 2000 currently operating.

"In February 2012, we already topped 2,000 operating breweries—a truly remarkable milestone. We look forward to even more success and the continued expansion of the craft beer market.”

The industry has been growing for quite some time, but the last 12 months (maybe even 6) have seemed unreal to me.

 

Imho, part of what is going on with craft beer reminds me of the early 90's with comics. Per an interview I saw with Stan Lee a few years back, some investment analysts stated something about comic's being a better investment then stocks at the time, and suddenly you had this huge interest in comics, followed by "beckets" i.e. "wizard" publications, that told what the market value of your comics were, new comic companies came out, or expanded, (dark horse, image, top cow, etc.) and an expansion of Marvel, DC that eventually came crashing down.

I use this analogy with all the ebay, craiglist resale’s you see of limited, rare beers today, and at some point, something will give. Possibly the profiteers will become less common, or there will be legal changes preventing the current ability to market the resale’s. I also agree with others there will be brewery failures, mergers, and consolidation at some point as well too. How much of the above scenario's will occur, and when, the magic 8 ball says ask again later.