When is the bubble gonna burst?

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
Page 1 of 10
  1. cheesepuffs

    cheesepuffs Initiate (0) Feb 21, 2010 Connecticut

    Lately I feel like many of the beers I try taste so similar. And like every new brewery is just in a pissing contest with the next brewery to go "bigger" just for the sake of being extreme, even if the product isn't that great.

    I feel like there are over 2,000 breweries in the US but only so many way to make a decent IPA. How much saturation can the market take? I'm recently getting bored with craft beer because I just feel like it's getting redundant and almost becoming a parody of itself. Yes, I'm saying it. We're at the point where there are perhaps too many breweries.

    When is the bubble gonna burst? When are we going to reach our upper limit and start seeing the lesser breweries shutter? I'm not saying I want businesses to close but with so many brewers it seems inevitable that not all will survive for the long haul.

    Your thoughts?
     
    #1 cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015
    Foyle, deepsleeper, GetTheYayo and 2 others like this.
  2. drtth

    drtth Initiate (0) Nov 25, 2007 Pennsylvania
    In Memoriam

    First of all there is no bubble. Nothing has an unreasonably high price compared to its value.

    As for when the supply of beers will exceed the demand its hard to predict simply because many new breweries are opening in areas where there are none and creating new markets.

    Edit: for lots of discussion of this do a search on the word "bubble" in thread titles and you'll find lots of thoughts about the answer to your question. Good luck.
     
    #2 drtth, Aug 13, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2015
    shadwow13, mtvolkens, BoneyardBrewer and 11 others like this.
  3. Teddy_Hopper

    Teddy_Hopper Initiate (0) Jan 9, 2015 South Carolina

    I disagree with all of this. Brewers are just breaching the surface with creativity and experimentation. An excellent time to be alive in the craft beer world.
     
    #3 Teddy_Hopper, Aug 13, 2015
    upsbeernut, blisscent, ClavisAurea and 22 others like this.
  4. Kramer41609

    Kramer41609 Initiate (0) Dec 27, 2014 New Hampshire

    I personally think the IPA market is very over-saturated. Maybe it's cause I live in Vermont and they are EVERYWHERE. Love IPAs and IIPAs, but it seems like there are way too many. I would like a bigger variety of Lagers and Hefe.
     
    #4 Kramer41609, Aug 13, 2015
    Billet, KingEdward, JLSIV and 17 others like this.
  5. Kramer41609

    Kramer41609 Initiate (0) Dec 27, 2014 New Hampshire

    Aside from the IPAs and IIPAs, I personally don't think there is a bubble. I love how many breweries there are. And there will always be people looking to try new beer.
     
    #5 Kramer41609, Aug 13, 2015
    mtvolkens and Lucular like this.
  6. Jirin

    Jirin Initiate (0) Apr 28, 2013 Massachusetts

    If you make the mistake of looking at craft beer through the lens of the headline narrative, I can see how you might feel that way.

    There are a lot of people who feel so passionate about beer that they are willing to take bigger risks and slimmer profits to attempt to open a brewery, and so far they've made up for it by gradually expanding craft's sliver of the total beer market. Eventually a lot of the weaker ones will die off and consolidate. In that respect I agree with you, but this isn't the 'Bubble bursting', it's just economics, and it won't negatively impact the quality and variety of craft beer available to us.

    If you're fatigued of the melodrama of the headlines, ignore it and just enjoy your beer.
     
    #6 Jirin, Aug 13, 2015
    kwakwhore, John_Beeryman and brewgiehowser like this.
  7. cheesepuffs

    cheesepuffs Initiate (0) Feb 21, 2010 Connecticut



    I disagree. When beers are hitting $14 for a four pack or $9 a pop at a beer bar things are getting out of hand.
     
    #7 cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015
    hudsonvalleyslim, upsbeernut, Foyle and 5 others like this.
  8. cheesepuffs

    cheesepuffs Initiate (0) Feb 21, 2010 Connecticut

    Not fatigued by headlines, just getting tired of beers that (in their respective categories) often taste near identical. And even some that push the boundary so much that they don't even taste like their category anymore. The lines are becoming more and more blurred to me.
     
    #8 cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015
  9. Smakawhat

    Smakawhat Grand High Pooh-Bah (7,191) Mar 18, 2008 Maryland
    BA4LYFE Society Pooh-Bah

    That's been the going rate at many places for years....
     
    #9 Smakawhat, Aug 13, 2015
    upsbeernut, ironchefmiyagi13, John_Beeryman and 2 others like this.
  10. cheesepuffs

    cheesepuffs Initiate (0) Feb 21, 2010 Connecticut

    But when do you say enough is enough?
     
    #10 cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015
  11. PatrickCT

    PatrickCT Grand Pooh-Bah (3,776) Feb 18, 2015 Connecticut

    2/17/2023. Remember this date.
     
    #11 PatrickCT, Aug 13, 2015
    alucard6679, atorres, IPAandGreenChile and 18 others like this.
  12. Lucular

    Lucular Grand Pooh-Bah (4,367) Jun 20, 2014 Maryland
    BA4LYFE Society Pooh-Bah Trader

    That's a sign that the bubble (if there is one) is NOT about to pop. There's more than enough demand for the current supply; otherwise people wouldn't pay those prices.

    If at some point in the future beers that used to sell for $14/4-pack start sitting on the shelves, and breweries start dropping their prices, and the beer is still sitting on shelves...that's when the "bubble" will have burst.
     
    #12 Lucular, Aug 13, 2015
    John_Beeryman likes this.
  13. HammsMeASAP

    HammsMeASAP Pundit (931) Jun 14, 2012 Minnesota

    Agreed.
     
    #13 HammsMeASAP, Aug 13, 2015
    John_Beeryman likes this.
  14. Brolo75

    Brolo75 Grand Pooh-Bah (3,134) Aug 10, 2013 California
    Pooh-Bah

    My concern is not the "bubble" bursting but consolidation. When breweries start consolidating then the consumer is in trouble because with less competition comes lower quality (as least, that's my theory). But hopefully, with so many independent breweries competition will remain high along with creativity and quality.
     
    #14 Brolo75, Aug 13, 2015
    travolta, shadwow13 and KSOZE like this.
  15. cheesepuffs

    cheesepuffs Initiate (0) Feb 21, 2010 Connecticut

    Bigger question: Why are we (not me, but us collectively) ok with beer prices creeping up and up? Why are we allowing ourselves to put up with what in some cases is definitely price gouging?
     
    #15 cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015
    Avelasquez80 and maxifunk777 like this.
  16. 5thOhio

    5thOhio Pooh-Bah (1,571) May 13, 2007 South Carolina
    Pooh-Bah

    Gee, haven't seen this topic since "best lawnmower beer", "What are your top five beers" and "my beer got hot."
     
    #16 5thOhio, Aug 13, 2015
    Borbly, alucard6679, Avelasquez80 and 8 others like this.
  17. DoubleJ

    DoubleJ Grand Pooh-Bah (4,516) Oct 13, 2007 Wisconsin
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I wonder if Mercedes Benz enthusiasts think that the increase of dealerships means that the Mercedes Benz bubble will burst.
     
    #17 DoubleJ, Aug 13, 2015
    5thOhio, Tylertut, Wolfeman1704 and 2 others like this.
  18. Pahn

    Pahn Initiate (0) Dec 2, 2009 New York

    Not gonna burst. Pseudo saturation may hurt bad business models (e.g. ppl who do hoppy beers but don't figure out how to make sure customers get them fresh, or also ppl who simply don't make good beer)... but the bubble won't burst. Americans love alcohol and craft beer is delicious. People have been talking about the damn bubble for like 10 years.

    Edit: it's like wondering when the pizza restaurant bubble will burst.
     
    #18 Pahn, Aug 13, 2015
    5thOhio, shadwow13, nicholasofcusa and 5 others like this.
  19. cheesepuffs

    cheesepuffs Initiate (0) Feb 21, 2010 Connecticut

    That's not even remotely similar. All Mercedes dealers carry the same product line. C-class, E-class, S-class, etc.

    IPA is to mid-size sedan as Sierra Nevada Torpedo is to C63. If there were suddenly 2,000 car brands in the US then yes, many of them would die off.
     
    #19 cheesepuffs, Aug 13, 2015
    Borbly likes this.
  20. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,647) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah

    No feel about it, >3700 breweries in the USA.
     
    #20 hopfenunmaltz, Aug 13, 2015
    chimneyjim likes this.
Page 1 of 10
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.